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War and Cliometrics
The Rise and Fall ofThe Hacker Beard Thesis
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1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
1,000
10,000
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
Second AmericanRevolution
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
1,000
10,000
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
?So Much for Hacker - Beard !
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1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
1,000
10,000
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
1,000
10,000
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
What If There Had Been No War?
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“Except for those with a particular interest
in the economics of war, the four year period
of conflict [1861-65] has had little attraction
for economic historians”.
Ross Robertson [1955]
Reality Check:
THERE WAS A WAR!
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The Beard’s Point Was That War Was “Irrepressible”
Maybe They Were Right!
Lincoln Douglas Breckinridge Bell
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
1,000
10,000
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
A Revolution ?
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WHAT IF THE SOUTH WON?
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Adventures inCounterfactual History
What ISCounterfactual History?
Economists:Counterfactual History is An Exercise In
To Answer A Specific Question
Economic TheoryUse Economic Models To Generate
Possible Outcomes
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Historians:Alternative History is An Exercise In
Ask “What If” Questions –
But Don’t Take the Answers Seriously
Imagination
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Roger’s Counterfactual Pudding
Ingredients:
2 parts historical plausibility1 part imagination 1 part common sense
Mix ingredients until they are blended into a smooth even texture.
If the texture seems uneven or coarse, try a little more common sense.
If the pudding seems gray and boring, add more imagination.
Carefully pour ingredients into a mold shaped in the form of a well-defined historical setting.
Serve with a large dose of skepticism
Bon Appetit!
YES!
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YES!
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1914 Where does itAll end?
“Doug North has never deigned to answer his critics …
… Because he is too busy leaping to his NEXT GREAT MISTAKE!”
[William Parker, September 1973]
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