war and cliometrics the rise and fall of the hacker beard ... · the hacker beard thesis ....
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War and Cliometrics
The Rise and Fall ofThe Hacker Beard Thesis
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1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
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Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
Second AmericanRevolution
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
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Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
?So Much for Hacker - Beard !
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1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
1,000
10,000
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ion
s o
f D
olla
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Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
100
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10,000
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s o
f D
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Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
What If There Had Been No War?
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“Except for those with a particular interest
in the economics of war, the four year period
of conflict [1861-65] has had little attraction
for economic historians”.
Ross Robertson [1955]
Reality Check:
THERE WAS A WAR!
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The Beard’s Point Was That War Was “Irrepressible”
Maybe They Were Right!
Lincoln Douglas Breckinridge Bell
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
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Gross National Product of the United States; 1839 - 1929
A Revolution ?
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WHAT IF THE SOUTH WON?
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Adventures inCounterfactual History
What ISCounterfactual History?
Economists:Counterfactual History is An Exercise In
To Answer A Specific Question
Economic TheoryUse Economic Models To Generate
Possible Outcomes
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Historians:Alternative History is An Exercise In
Ask “What If” Questions –
But Don’t Take the Answers Seriously
Imagination
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Roger’s Counterfactual Pudding
Ingredients:
2 parts historical plausibility1 part imagination 1 part common sense
Mix ingredients until they are blended into a smooth even texture.
If the texture seems uneven or coarse, try a little more common sense.
If the pudding seems gray and boring, add more imagination.
Carefully pour ingredients into a mold shaped in the form of a well-defined historical setting.
Serve with a large dose of skepticism
Bon Appetit!
YES!
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YES!
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1914 Where does itAll end?
“Doug North has never deigned to answer his critics …
… Because he is too busy leaping to his NEXT GREAT MISTAKE!”
[William Parker, September 1973]
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