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Growing smarterAn approach to intelligent spatial
planning using the evidence
How should Norfolk grow?
Norwich, 20th November 2015
Tim Stonor
[email protected]@Tim_Stonor
Space Syntax
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Presence
Copresence
Communication
Interaction
Transaction
Introduction
Innovation
Broadcast
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Underpinning policy with evidence
Short-term➔ 50 yearsThe right science
for emergenciesCurrent issues:
Well-being, health, security & resilience
e.g. Ebola e.g. Cybersecurity e.g. Future of Cities
Medium-term Long-term
Knowledge translated to economic advantageAdvocacy and leadership for science
Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser
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Disconnected LayoutSpatial Accessibility Score = 35
Connected layoutSpatial Accessibility Score = 75
Disconnected Layout Connected Layout Difference IRR 15% 18% 3%
NPV USD 1.1 billion USD 1.6 billion USD 0.5 billion
Real estate value analysis
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Suppressed movement economy.
Enhanced movement economy.
Main street, mixing global & local movement.
Fast highways, separating global & local movement.
Urban challenge #1 Fast highways replacing main streets
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Modelling the Spatial Layout Attraction
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New Extension Area (NEA)CBD area
2,000
3,000
750
2,500
1,5001,000
500250
2,000
750
2,500
1,5001,000
500250
0
totototototototo
Unimproved Capital Value (UCV)$ per m²
above3,000 to
Existing land value
The Land value Model predicts a total land value for the CBD and the New Extension Area of more than 3.7 billion Australian dollars.
Forecasting land value
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The Integrated Transport Network model examines the employment impacts of rail infrastructure improvement
“Peak Ring North” scenario “Peak Ring South” scenario
Note: model incorporates planned improvements under HS2/HS3
Model links rail and road
infrastructure to capture
integrated commuting time
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