THIS LECTURE COVERS
Background
Level of Response (LR)
ALSPAC Data at Age 12
Outcomes
THIS LECTURE COVERS
Background
Level of Response (LR)
ALSPAC Data at Age 12
Outcomes
ALCOHOLISM RISK
Environment40%
Genetics60%
Multiple Characteristics and Genes
GENETIC RISK FACTORS
Level of Response (LR)
Impulsivity
Psychiatric Disorders
Alcohol Metabolizing Enzymes
LR RATIONALE Youth Drink for Effects
If Need more, Will Drink More
Then Heavy Drinking AffectsPeersExpectationsStress
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Time
Effe
ct
FHNFHP.05
.01
.05.05
SRESRE TIME FRAME:
DRINKS 1st 5 Recent
HeaviestNEEDED TO: Times 3 Mo.
Feel Effect
Feel Dizzy orSlur Speech
Stumble
Fall Asleep
LR PREDICTS OUTCOME
San Diego Study
Australian Twins
Danish Adoptees
Colorado Twins
COGA Kids
ALSPAC Kids
Pittsburgh Study
THIS LECTURE COVERS
Background
Level of Response (LR)
ALSPAC Data at Age 12
Outcomes
BEFORE ALSPAC
Subjects Age 18+
Not General Population
Most From U.S.
ALSPAC DRINKERS AT 12 Age 12 Age 14
Age 12.4 13.9
Drinks/Week 2.6 3.4a
Max Drinks 4.2 5.1c
% Problems 29 42a
REGRESSIONS AT 12MAX
QUANTPROBLEMS
1st 5 .47 .24
ITEMS --- ---
WT .16 ---
R² (%) 27.5 9.9
THIS LECTURE COVERS
Background
Level of Response (LR)
ALSPAC Data at Age 12
Outcomes
ALSPAC DRINKERS 12/14 Age 12 Age 14
Age 12.4 13.9
Drinks/Week 2.6 3.4a
Max Drinks 4.2 5.1c
% Problems 29 42a
FHalc
LR
ALCOUT
PEER EXPECT
COPE
PROJECTED
PROSPECTIVE CORRELATION
LRLR PEERPEER OUTOUT SEXSEX
PEERPEER .38b
OUTOUT .35b .37b
SEXSEX .05 .12a -.04
AGEAGE .05 .11a .05 .17b
aa p<.05, bb p<.001
AGE
PEER
LR ALCOUT.25
.19
SEX
.28.37
.08
.09
1,905 CROSS SECTIONAL
1,905 ALSPAC 17-YEAR-OLDS
LRLR OUTOUT PEEPEERR
EXPECEXPECTT
COPECOPE GENDEGENDERR
OUTOUT .35
PEERPEER .07
.51
EXPECTEXPECT .15
.50 .24
COPECOPE .12
.50 .33 .50
GENDERGENDER -.11
-.14 .01√ -.14 .04√
AGEAGE .02√
.11 .05 -.02√ .01√ -.04√
GENDER
AGE
COPE
PEER EXPECT
LR ALCOUT.24
.59
.07.12
.05
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Prospective With Full Sample
Follow-up Later Onset Kids
Prevention Trial