THIS LECTURE COVERS

Background

Level of Response (LR)

ALSPAC Data at Age 12

Outcomes

THIS LECTURE COVERS

Background

Level of Response (LR)

ALSPAC Data at Age 12

Outcomes

ALCOHOLISM RISK

Environment40%

Genetics60%

Multiple Characteristics and Genes

GENETIC RISK FACTORS

Level of Response (LR)

Impulsivity

Psychiatric Disorders

Alcohol Metabolizing Enzymes

LR RATIONALE Youth Drink for Effects

If Need more, Will Drink More

Then Heavy Drinking AffectsPeersExpectationsStress

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Time

Effe

ct

FHNFHP.05

.01

.05.05

SRESRE TIME FRAME:

DRINKS 1st 5 Recent

HeaviestNEEDED TO: Times 3 Mo.

Feel Effect

Feel Dizzy orSlur Speech

Stumble

Fall Asleep

LR PREDICTS OUTCOME

San Diego Study

Australian Twins

Danish Adoptees

Colorado Twins

COGA Kids

ALSPAC Kids

Pittsburgh Study

THIS LECTURE COVERS

Background

Level of Response (LR)

ALSPAC Data at Age 12

Outcomes

BEFORE ALSPAC

Subjects Age 18+

Not General Population

Most From U.S.

ALSPAC DRINKERS AT 12 Age 12 Age 14

Age 12.4 13.9

Drinks/Week 2.6 3.4a

Max Drinks 4.2 5.1c

% Problems 29 42a

REGRESSIONS AT 12MAX

QUANTPROBLEMS

1st 5 .47 .24

ITEMS --- ---

WT .16 ---

R² (%) 27.5 9.9

THIS LECTURE COVERS

Background

Level of Response (LR)

ALSPAC Data at Age 12

Outcomes

ALSPAC DRINKERS 12/14 Age 12 Age 14

Age 12.4 13.9

Drinks/Week 2.6 3.4a

Max Drinks 4.2 5.1c

% Problems 29 42a

FHalc

LR

ALCOUT

PEER EXPECT

COPE

PROJECTED

PROSPECTIVE CORRELATION

LRLR PEERPEER OUTOUT SEXSEX

PEERPEER .38b

OUTOUT .35b .37b

SEXSEX .05 .12a -.04

AGEAGE .05 .11a .05 .17b

aa p<.05, bb p<.001

AGE

PEER

LR ALCOUT.25

.19

SEX

.28.37

.08

.09

1,905 CROSS SECTIONAL

1,905 ALSPAC 17-YEAR-OLDS

LRLR OUTOUT PEEPEERR

EXPECEXPECTT

COPECOPE GENDEGENDERR

OUTOUT .35

PEERPEER .07

.51

EXPECTEXPECT .15

.50 .24

COPECOPE .12

.50 .33 .50

GENDERGENDER -.11

-.14 .01√ -.14 .04√

AGEAGE .02√

.11 .05 -.02√ .01√ -.04√

GENDER

AGE

COPE

PEER EXPECT

LR ALCOUT.24

.59

.07.12

.05

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Prospective With Full Sample

Follow-up Later Onset Kids

Prevention Trial