The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission
September 13, 2003
Adequacy of transportation facilities
Economic vitality
Managing growthin Montgomery County
The Transportation Tests
• Policy Area Transportation Review.• Area average roadway congestion cannot
exceed standard.
• Local Area Transportation Review.• Tests congestion at nearby intersections.
• For both PATR and LATR, congestion standard varies depending on transit availability & usage.
Policy Area Transportation Review
• Staging Ceilings: Calculation of the maximum number of jobs and housing units the transportation system can handle.
• Rural: no staging ceilings because growth limited by zoning.
• Staging ceilings in one policy area cannot result in excessive congestion in another policy area
• APF finding: 5-12 years.
Policy Areas
How much new development can be approved?
Transportation Development
Capacity of Programmed
Facilities
Capacity of Existing
Facilities
STAGING CEILING
Approved Development
Existing Development
Net Remaining Capacity
Policy Areas
What is TTLOS?
• Component of PATR: “Total Transportation Level of Service”
• Formula for determining how much auto congestion should be permitted in each policy area.
• Inputs are “transit mode share” and “transit accessibility.”
• Problems with concept surfaced during 2001 update; a major reason for AGP review.
Development permitted under current ceilings
Jobs Housing
Already Approved 77,292 25,987
Capacity New Approvals 32,052 31,568
Approvals (2002) 10,539 5,169
Completions (2002): 7,294 3,456
This chart does not include development activity in Rockville or Gaithersburg
Policy areas in moratorium FY03
Housing
In Moratorium
Not in Moratorium
Municipalities
Jobs
Approving development in transportation moratorium areas
• Small Scale Development
• Affordable Housing
• Staging Ceiling Flexibility• Developer Participation• Development Districts
• Metro Station Areas
• Economic Development Projects
Local Area Transportation Review
• Objective: make sure development does not overwhelm nearby intersections.
• Applied to all projects generating 50 or more peak hour trips.
• If intersection fails the standard, developer can make improvements, mitigate trips, or – in limited cases – make a payment to the County.
Traffic congestion has gotten worse
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jobs Pop VMT Roads
Percent change, 1985-2000
Comparing traffic congestion measures
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50Urbanized Congestion 2000
DC
Reg
ion
Mon
tgom
ery
Co.
Fai rf
ax C
o.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Mon
tgom
ery
Co.
Fai rf
ax C
o.
Transit Mode Share 2000
Square Kilometers of Development 1973-85 1985-90 1990-96Montgomery County 3.5 4.6 2.6Fairfax County 5.7 10.0 4.5
Roadway congestion
CongestedSeverely congested
Approaching congested
Cost of future infrastructure
• 2030 Forecast: 146,000 jobs and 78,000 housing units (31,200 students).
• Transportation: $5.9 billion
• About $26,000 per forecast job and housing unit
Transportation test concerns
• Using the right measures?• Staging ceilings are based on “average
congestion.”
• AGP looks only at “peak periods.”
• Complex: Reliance on a complicated transportation model.• Good: technical and objective.
• Bad: only an expert can challenge findings.
Transportation test goals
• More transparent and understandable
• Fewer subareas
• Strengthen connection to capital programming
• Retain LATR
Economic vitality
Economic vitality context
• The foundations of Montgomery County’s economy are very strong.• Direct federal government activity• Attracts and supports highly educated
workforce• Attracts and supports tech-oriented private
sector
• Many counties would envy Montgomery County’s job growth, labor force, and unemployment rate.
County economy: 2003
• Local economy exhibits strengths in face of national downturn
• Job growth: flat overall, tech sectors among hardest hit
• Federal impact: procurement, leasing & employment outlook still strong
• Office space market: short, mild recession appears to be ending
Annual job growth: 2,159 jobs
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,00019
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002, Montgomery County added 2,159 jobs, growing 0.5 percent.
Second quarter figures (change from previous year)
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data
Job growth: tech jobs drop to 1997 levels
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
1988
Q1
1988
Q4
1989
Q3
1990
Q2
1991
Q1
1991
Q4
1992
Q3
1993
Q2
1994
Q1
1994
Q4
1995
Q3
1996
Q2
1997
Q1
1997
Q4
1998
Q3
1999
Q2
2000
Q1
2000
Q4
2001
Q3
2002
Q2
There are 71,400 high tech jobs in Montgomery County.
United States
Maryland
Montgomery Co.
Ind
e x:
1 98 8
Q1 =
1 00
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2)
Jobless rate is 2.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
There are 13,630 unemployed persons in Montgomery County.
Jan 1988: 2.6%
June 1992: 3.9%
July 2003: 2.6%
Source: MD DLLR
Federal jobs expected to exceed 1994 levels by 2005
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Leased
Installation
Workers
By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to grow by 38 percent above current levels. Jobs in leased space are expected
to fluctuate between 22,300 and 25,500. Source: M-NCPPC analysis of US government data
Federal leasing reaches 6.7 million s.f.
Source: General Services Administration (GSA)
Square feet
Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and 6.7 million square feet of commercial space in
Montgomery County
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1984 1989 1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003
Federal procurement reaches record levels: $4.7 billion
Source: General Services Administration (GSA)
$ billions
The regional leaders in federal procurement are Washington DC and Fairfax County, VA, both with
more than double Montgomery County’s amount.
01122334455
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Office market: long term trends show construction cycles
0
1
2
3
4
5
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
ProposedUnder Const.Existing
Millions of square feet
Office market: Class A vacancy rates have started to decline
0%
5%
10%
15%
Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03
C
B
AAll
Office vacancy rates
Montgomery fared better than Fairfax and region
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Region Fairfax Montgomery
In March 2003: percent better or worse than March 2002
Vacant space
Occupied space
Montgomery County’s office market fared better than the rest of region during the recent recession, as we had less vacant space and we had
positive net absorption of new space.
Office market recovery negative indicators
• Leasing of new buildings may leave sublet space vacant.
• U.S. economy is in the doldrums, undermining confidence.
• There are still 800,000 sq. ft. under construction.
Summary
• Transportation tests: Have moderated the pace of growth and have required road improvements to be built. But the current methods may be more complicated than necessary.
• Congestion: Roads are congested and the cost of new facilities is high.
• Economic vitality: County’s economic foundations and prospects are strong. Office market is healthier than region as a whole, but has space for companies to expand.