The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission

September 13, 2003

Adequacy of transportation facilities

Economic vitality

Managing growthin Montgomery County

The Transportation Tests

• Policy Area Transportation Review.• Area average roadway congestion cannot

exceed standard.

• Local Area Transportation Review.• Tests congestion at nearby intersections.

• For both PATR and LATR, congestion standard varies depending on transit availability & usage.

Policy Area Transportation Review

• Staging Ceilings: Calculation of the maximum number of jobs and housing units the transportation system can handle.

• Rural: no staging ceilings because growth limited by zoning.

• Staging ceilings in one policy area cannot result in excessive congestion in another policy area

• APF finding: 5-12 years.

Policy Areas

How much new development can be approved?

Transportation Development

Capacity of Programmed

Facilities

Capacity of Existing

Facilities

STAGING CEILING

Approved Development

Existing Development

Net Remaining Capacity

Policy Areas

What is TTLOS?

• Component of PATR: “Total Transportation Level of Service”

• Formula for determining how much auto congestion should be permitted in each policy area.

• Inputs are “transit mode share” and “transit accessibility.”

• Problems with concept surfaced during 2001 update; a major reason for AGP review.

Development permitted under current ceilings

Jobs Housing

Already Approved 77,292 25,987

Capacity New Approvals 32,052 31,568

Approvals (2002) 10,539 5,169

Completions (2002): 7,294 3,456

This chart does not include development activity in Rockville or Gaithersburg

Policy areas in moratorium FY03

Housing

In Moratorium

Not in Moratorium

Municipalities

Jobs

Approving development in transportation moratorium areas

• Small Scale Development

• Affordable Housing

• Staging Ceiling Flexibility• Developer Participation• Development Districts

• Metro Station Areas

• Economic Development Projects

Local Area Transportation Review

• Objective: make sure development does not overwhelm nearby intersections.

• Applied to all projects generating 50 or more peak hour trips.

• If intersection fails the standard, developer can make improvements, mitigate trips, or – in limited cases – make a payment to the County.

Traffic congestion has gotten worse

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jobs Pop VMT Roads

Percent change, 1985-2000

Comparing traffic congestion measures

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50Urbanized Congestion 2000

DC

Reg

ion

Mon

tgom

ery

Co.

Fai rf

ax C

o.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mon

tgom

ery

Co.

Fai rf

ax C

o.

Transit Mode Share 2000

Square Kilometers of Development 1973-85 1985-90 1990-96Montgomery County 3.5 4.6 2.6Fairfax County 5.7 10.0 4.5

Roadway congestion

CongestedSeverely congested

Approaching congested

Cost of future infrastructure

• 2030 Forecast: 146,000 jobs and 78,000 housing units (31,200 students).

• Transportation: $5.9 billion

• About $26,000 per forecast job and housing unit

Transportation test concerns

• Using the right measures?• Staging ceilings are based on “average

congestion.”

• AGP looks only at “peak periods.”

• Complex: Reliance on a complicated transportation model.• Good: technical and objective.

• Bad: only an expert can challenge findings.

Transportation test goals

• More transparent and understandable

• Fewer subareas

• Strengthen connection to capital programming

• Retain LATR

Economic vitality

Economic vitality context

• The foundations of Montgomery County’s economy are very strong.• Direct federal government activity• Attracts and supports highly educated

workforce• Attracts and supports tech-oriented private

sector

• Many counties would envy Montgomery County’s job growth, labor force, and unemployment rate.

County economy: 2003

• Local economy exhibits strengths in face of national downturn

• Job growth: flat overall, tech sectors among hardest hit

• Federal impact: procurement, leasing & employment outlook still strong

• Office space market: short, mild recession appears to be ending

Annual job growth: 2,159 jobs

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,00019

91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002, Montgomery County added 2,159 jobs, growing 0.5 percent.

Second quarter figures (change from previous year)

Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data

Job growth: tech jobs drop to 1997 levels

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

1988

Q1

1988

Q4

1989

Q3

1990

Q2

1991

Q1

1991

Q4

1992

Q3

1993

Q2

1994

Q1

1994

Q4

1995

Q3

1996

Q2

1997

Q1

1997

Q4

1998

Q3

1999

Q2

2000

Q1

2000

Q4

2001

Q3

2002

Q2

There are 71,400 high tech jobs in Montgomery County.

United States

Maryland

Montgomery Co.

Ind

e x:

1 98 8

Q1 =

1 00

Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2)

Jobless rate is 2.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

There are 13,630 unemployed persons in Montgomery County.

Jan 1988: 2.6%

June 1992: 3.9%

July 2003: 2.6%

Source: MD DLLR

Federal jobs expected to exceed 1994 levels by 2005

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Leased

Installation

Workers

By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to grow by 38 percent above current levels. Jobs in leased space are expected

to fluctuate between 22,300 and 25,500. Source: M-NCPPC analysis of US government data

Federal leasing reaches 6.7 million s.f.

Source: General Services Administration (GSA)

Square feet

Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and 6.7 million square feet of commercial space in

Montgomery County

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1984 1989 1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003

Federal procurement reaches record levels: $4.7 billion

Source: General Services Administration (GSA)

$ billions

The regional leaders in federal procurement are Washington DC and Fairfax County, VA, both with

more than double Montgomery County’s amount.

01122334455

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Office market: long term trends show construction cycles

0

1

2

3

4

5

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

ProposedUnder Const.Existing

Millions of square feet

Office market: Class A vacancy rates have started to decline

0%

5%

10%

15%

Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03

C

B

AAll

Office vacancy rates

Montgomery fared better than Fairfax and region

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Region Fairfax Montgomery

In March 2003: percent better or worse than March 2002

Vacant space

Occupied space

Montgomery County’s office market fared better than the rest of region during the recent recession, as we had less vacant space and we had

positive net absorption of new space.

Office market recovery negative indicators

• Leasing of new buildings may leave sublet space vacant.

• U.S. economy is in the doldrums, undermining confidence.

• There are still 800,000 sq. ft. under construction.

Summary

• Transportation tests: Have moderated the pace of growth and have required road improvements to be built. But the current methods may be more complicated than necessary.

• Congestion: Roads are congested and the cost of new facilities is high.

• Economic vitality: County’s economic foundations and prospects are strong. Office market is healthier than region as a whole, but has space for companies to expand.