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Boulder County Real Estate
3rd Quarter 2013
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If you have been reading this report for quite some time you will know that there is some seasonality in the
local real estate market. Usually we see the fewest number of sales in December and January, sales peak in
June or July and the rest of the year falls into a neat and clean bell curve (see the attached Chart 1). Even
though it is true that almost every year fits this pattern some years we see variation for different reasons. For
example, in 2010 the Federal Government gave first time homebuyers a tax credit of $7,000 if they would pur-
chase a home by a certain date. This outside stimulus
effected the shape of our overall market. This year
the curve (green bars on Chart 2) has a few wrinkles
that are interesting. Among other topics I will talk
about those wrinkles and see if those allow us to
predict what will happen next. The report that follows
is a detailed presentation of the sales statistics from
the last quarter.
The year started well, buyers were out in force but
there were few sellers. It was like an army having a
full compliment of the needed weapons but only half
a shipment of ammunition. Everything works as de-
signed, but you just can’t fire the gun as often as
you would like. And so it was with home buyers
early in the year, lots of them, with very few listings
to buy. As a result, the market got off to a slower
than predicted start. Once sellers realized that they
were needed and that they would be compensated
for selling, our market flourished. From March until
July the market followed a nice upward curve. In
August sales predictably fell to a level similar to
June. A nice stair step down. Then in September,
instead of dropping to a level roughly even with
May, it fell to a level most similar to March. What
happened? A few factors contributed to the drop.
The first factor is the fact that most buyers who
had confidence in the market and wanted to buy
before interest rates increased have already done so. A second reason is the school factor, many buyers want
to be in place by the time school starts so they rush to make the sale happen by the end of August. The last
reason was a minor cause in September but may have implications in the coming months, the flooding.
In mid-September the real estate market paused for a week or so while record amounts of rain fell and
caused widespread flooding. The flooding caused not only a lost week in sales and listing activity; it caused
major property damage, mostly in the form of flooded basements. Many pending sales were affected as dam-
age was assessed. Easier to measure was the affect of the floods on the inventory of available homes. During
the month of September the number of active homes decreased by 17% while a year ago during the same
month, our inventory increased by 4%. Many homes that were on the market sustained damage and were
forced off the market and others who would have normally listed their homes concentrated on cleanup rather
than last minute polishing before listing their homes. We have since recovered to a normal level of new listings,
but I suspect that the ripples from the flooding and it’s affects on sales volume and values won’t fully be seen
for some time.
As we move into the fourth quarter we see the market slowing as we approach the holidays. This time of year
many people start formulating their plans for the coming year and the factors that we are looking at which
could affect the real estate market in 2014 are interest rate movement, job growth and how government pos-
turing affects financing and transaction management. As always, if you are considering a move in the coming
year it’s not too early to start our conversation.
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January March May July September November
Boulder County Sales by Month
Single Family and Condos
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Chart 2
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700
Average Monthly Sales 2004 - 2012Chart 1
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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 304 metropolitan areas across the
United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the
United States average. Our recovery has been a bit slower than the US average, but that is a direct
result of the fact that we had less ground to make up. According to FHFA.gov, median home prices in
Boulder County are 6.1% above where they were a year ago. The lower graph shows Boulder’s national
ranking in appreciation over time. The one year appreciation ranks us 63rd among the 304 metropolitan
districts.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1st Qtr. 2009
2nd Qtr. 2009
3rd Qtr. 2009
4th Qtr. 2009
1st Qtr. 2010
2nd Qtr. 2010
3rd Qtr. 2010
4th Qtr. 2010
1st Qtr. 2011
2nd Qtr. 2011
3rd Qtr. 2011
4th Qtr. 2011
1st Qtr. 2012
2nd Qtr. 2012
3rd Qtr. 2012
4th Qtr. 2012
1st Qtr. 2013
2nd Qtr. 2013
One Year Appreciation
Source FHFA.gov
Boulder County United States
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250
2nd Qtr.
2006
4th Qtr.
2006
2nd Qtr.
2007
4th Qtr.
2007
2nd Qtr.
2008
4th Qtr.
2008
2nd Qtr.
2009
4th Qtr.
2009
2nd Qtr.
2010
4th Qtr.
2010
2nd Qtr.
2011
4th Qtr.
2011
2nd Qtr.
2012
4th Qtr.
2012
2nd Qtr.
2013
FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation
(304 Total Metro Areas)
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Total sales were up 20% in the 3nd quarter compared to a year ago. Throughout Boulder
County, 66% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie graph
on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the quar-
ter in each area. 31% of the closings during the quarter took place in Boulder, followed by
Longmont with 29%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes, Gunbarrel,
Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between. 14% of all
closings took place in the Suburban Plains.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
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1200
1400
1600
1800
Q3
2008
Q4
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Q1
2009
Q2
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Q3
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2009
Q1
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Q3
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County
66%
30%
4%
Boulder County Sales by Type
Residential Attached Other
31%
7%
10%
29%
4%
5%
14%
Boulder County Sales by Area
Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont
Superior Mountains Plains
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The charts on this page of-
fer an interesting view of
the real estate market in
Boulder County.
The top chart shows the
percentage of closings that
occurred in each price
range during the third quar-
ter. There is data for four
quarters, but usually the
percentages are fairly sta-
ble. What stands out is that
this past quarter 76% of
the sales in the county sell
for less than $500,000.
During the third quarter of
2012, 21% of the sales in
the county sold for over
$750,000. During the most
recent quarter 24% of the
sales were in the same
range.
The lower chart shows
prices in Boulder County
over the last five years on
a quarterly basis. The me-
dian prices in the third
quarter decreased a bit af-
ter a strong increase during
the first and second quar-
ters. The national median
price, represented by the
blue line have had a similar
trend.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
36%
34%
30%
32%
43%
41%
42%
44%
13%
17%
17%
14%
5%
3%
6%
5%
3%
4%
5%
5%
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate
Median Price
Average Price
US Existing Median Price
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Sales within the City of Boulder increased by 22.5% during the third quarter this year when
compared to last year. Sales just dropped slightly from the second quarter. There is usually a
larger difference between the two quarters. Helping equalize the two was the fact that the low
inventory of the spring improved throughout the summer. The sales mix in the City of Boulder
this quarter is 50/50, half residential and half attached dwellings.
City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder
50%
50%
Sales by Type City of Boulder
Residential Attached
16%
16%
23%
31%
14%
City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code
80301 80302 80303 80304 80305
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200
300
400
500
600
700
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
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Q2
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Q3
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Q1
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Q1
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Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder
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The City of Boulder
has had more homes
sell the luxury quad-
rant than other areas
of the county. 76% of
the sales countywide
were below $500,000,
in Boulder only 59% of
the sales were below
that threshold. Within
Boulder, sales over $1
million were 8% of the
market this past quar-
ter, this is nearly dou-
ble the percentage of
the county.
The lower chart shows
prices in the City of
Boulder over the past
five years. Until this
quarter prices have not
moved much over the
past five years. The
median price for the
third quarter in Boulder
for all residential prop-
erties sold was
$449,900 up 7% from
a year ago.
City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder
25%
21%
25%
25%
37%
37%
31%
34%
22%
27%
22%
22%
10%
7%
11%
11%
6%
7%
11%
8%
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
City of Boulder Price Trends
Median Price Average Price County Median
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East county includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows that
sales have had a big spike during the second and third quarter. The 527 sales in the third
quarter represents an increase over third quarter sales last year by over 25%. A vast majority
of the sales in east county are single family homes. Just 24% of sales were condos or town-
homes. The pie chart on the right shows where the sales are taking place. The areas where the
most sales are taking place are Erie and Lafayette.
East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County
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600
Q3
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Q4
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Q1
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Q1
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Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities
76%
24%
Sales by Type East County Communities
Residential Attached
21%
33%14%
32%
East County Sales by Area
Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie
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The median price for
sales in Erie, Lafayette,
Louisville and Superior
during the third quarter
was $345,000. A vast
majority of the sales in
this area are in the
$250 - $500k range.
There are very few
sales above $750,000
(just 19 sales or 3%).
Unlike other areas in
Boulder County, prices
have shown a slow
steady climb over the
past few years. This
past quarter prices
were 6% higher than
at the same point last
year.
There is a lack of in-
ventory in many of the
markets in east county.
The mix of proximity,
lifestyle and median
price had made these
communities very
popular with buyers.
And have caused posi-
tive price pressure.
East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County
25%
23%
21%
22%
59%
61%
60%
61%
15%
13%
16%
13%
1%
3%
2%
3%
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
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Q1
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Q2
2011
Q3
2011
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2011
Q1
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Q1
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Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Price Trend in East Boulder County
Median Price Average Price County Median Price
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Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boulder. It is comprised of properties both within the City
of Boulder and others which are in Boulder County. Year after year, the second quarter has the
most sales activity in this area. This year, sales in the third quarter fell by 21% compared to
last quarter but were 24% higher than a year ago. 66% of the sales in Gunbarrel were single
family homes and the balance were condos and townhomes. There were 67 sales in Gunbarrel
during the most recent quarter. This is a much smaller figure than other areas.
GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel
0
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30
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90
100
Q3
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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel
Residential66%
Attached34%
Sales by Type Gunbarrel
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The median price for
all sales in Gunbarrel
during the third quarter
was $439,900. This is
higher than at any
time that I have been
keeping track of this
measure. 77% of the
sales in Gunbarrel this
past quarter closed for
$500,000 or less.
There were just 4 (6%)
sales in Gunbarrel over
$750,000 during the
past quarter. Over the
past four quarters the
$500 - $750 price
range has been grow-
ing and the $250 -
$500 price range has
been shrinking. Prices
have jumped.
The sample size for
Gunbarrel is smaller
than the other areas
we look at. Therefore,
the prices reflected in
the graph below are
more variable. Prices
were up 41% over last
years results. A lot of
the variability also has
to do with the chang-
ing mix of condo sales
vs. single family sales.
GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel
33%
36%
34%
29%
59%
54%
49%
48%
6%
8%
15%
19%
0%
2%
0%
4%
2%
0%
2%
0%
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range
0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Price Trend in Gunbarrel
Median Price
Average Price
Boulder County Median
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Sales in Longmont continued to be very strong during the third quarter of 2013. Overall there
was a 21% jump in the number of sales from the third quarter of 2013. 79% of the sales in
Longmont are single family homes. Sales are usually evenly spread throughout the city but this
past quarter the highest sales activity were in town and on the east side of town and not quite
as high on the west side of town.
LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont
0
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400
500
600
Q3
2008
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Q1
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Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont
Residential79%
Attached21%
Sales by Type Longmont
39%
24%
37%
Sales by Zip Code - Longmont
80501 80503 80504
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The median price for
all sales in Longmont
during the second
quarter was $249,900,
up from $232,500 last
quarter. Nearly all of
the sales in Longmont
close for $500,000 or
less. There have only
been just eight sales
over $750,000 during
the past four quarters.
The median and aver-
age prices in Longmont
are lower than the
county average. The
majority of homes in
Longmont are in the
$150,000 to $300,000
range. This past quar-
ter the average price
of a home that sold in
Longmont was
$270,278. The aver-
age price for all
homes sold in Boulder
County was $421,589.
Longmont continues to
offer good value in
housing.
LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont
63%
57%
55%
51%
34%
37%
41%
45%
2%
5%
3%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
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Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
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Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Price Trend in Longmont
Median Price Average Price Boulder County
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Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,
high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top
quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.
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January March May July September November
Boulder County Sales by Month
Single Family and Condos
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013
Homes on the Market
Boulder County Residential
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
January March May July September November
Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on
the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the
number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-
centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.
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Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate
New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly
2011
2010
2012
2013
0
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Axis
Tit
le
Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract
2010
2011
2012
2013
The dip occurred during
the week of the flooding.
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doing what’s right.
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tional service.
3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-
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4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%
of company profits are donated to local charities.
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serve our customers and associates.
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Sa
les
Boulder County Real Estate
Number Sold - Weekly
2010
2011
2012
2013