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Background Briefing:
Chinas Military Exercise:
Annual Drill or Warning to
Vietnam?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 14, 2011
[clientnamedeleted]
IhavejustreceivednewsaboutarecentmilitarydrillbyChinanearVietnamsborder
(pleaseseenewsbelow).
InsomeVietnameseblogs,bloggerssayChinawant tosendawarningmessage to
Vietnamthroughitsmilitarydrill.Couldyoupleasegivemeyourassessmentofthis
issue?
1.Whatisthepurposeofthisdrill?
ANSWER:OfficialChineseDefenceMinistrysourcesclaimthatthemilitaryexercises
inGuangxiZhuangAutonomousRegion isaroutinedrill.Becauseof tensionsover
theSouthChinaSeathere isadangerthatanymilitaryactionbyonepartywillbe
misinterpreted by the other throughmisperception. In this case, as a confidence
buildingmeasureChinaandVietnamshouldinformeachotherinadvancewhenthey
carryoutmilitaryexercisesneartheborderarea.
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
PLA'soperationinSChinaroutinedrill:MinistryUpdated:2011080917:49(Xinhua)
BEIJING China'sMinistry ofNationalDefense on Tuesday said
thata recentPeople's LiberationArmy (PLA)operation in south
Chinawasaroutinedrill.
MediareportshavespeculatedthatalargebuildupofPLAtroops
in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region along the Vietnam
China border could be related to the recent tensions over the
SouthChinaSea.
Astatementpublishedonthefrontpageoftheministry'swebsite,
www.mod.gov.cn, said that the PLA's GuangzhouMilitary Area
Commandhadconductedanannualroutinedrillintheregionand
themediashouldnotleaptospeculations.
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2.DoyouthinkChinareallywantstosendsignaltoVietnam?
ANSWER:Thereareelements in thePeoplesLiberationArmy thatareangeredby
VietnamstandinguptoChinabyconductinglivefirenavalexercisesandannouncing
exemptionstoconscriptionintimesofemergency.Chinesemilitaryofficialsarealso
prone to seeing each and every Vietnamese action as being related to territorial
disputes intheSouthChinaSea.SomeChinesemilitaryofficialshaveputtheworstpossible spinonVietnameseU.S.navalexchangeactivities.These recentexercises
couldbeanattempttosendamessagetoVietnambutChinesereportinghasbeen
muted.
3.Chinesemedia(inChinese)isfullofnewssayingChinawillteachVietnamanother
lessonby launchingaquickwar that lastdaysagainstVietnam.Doyou think is it
possibleforChinadoitnowastheydidin1979waragainstVietnam?
ANSWER: The Chinese propagandists are playing mind games in an attempt to
intimidateVietnam.ClaimsthatChinacanteachVietnamalessoninashortconflict
arepartofthispattern.Chinesepropagandistswhoraisethisissuewoulddowellto
recalltheimmensecasualtiesthatthePeoplesLiberationArmysufferedin1979.
4.HowcanVietnamresisttothiskindofwar?
ANSWER:ThereisnoevidencethatChinaisamassingalargeinvasionforce.In1979
theyhadtomobilizeforcesfromseveralmilitaryregionsfarfromtheborderarea.
Vietnam can resist a Chinese military attack as it has in the past through the
mobilizationofthepeopleinaprotractedwar.
ThefirstquestiontoaskiswhatistheChineseobjectiveandwhethermilitaryforce
canaccomplishthisobjective.ThehistoryofVietnamswaragainsttheFrench,the
United States, as well as Lebanese resistance to Israel, clearly indicates that
conventional warfare can be resisted by asymmetric tactics and a protracted
strategy.
IfChinausedforceagainstVietnamiswouldsufferenormousconsequencesbythe
reactionofregionalstatesandtheirallies.
5. Ihaveheard fromofficials inVietnam'sMOFA [MinistryofForeignAffairs] that
Vietnamese leaders are afraid of new Chinese leaders in the next Chinese Party
Congresswhomayfollowahard linepolicytoVietnam.Doyouthinktherewillbe
influencefromthenextChinesepartyCongresstoVietnam'spolicyonChina?
ANSWER:Analystspredictthatamorenationalist leadershipwillemergewhoseek
to use Chinese economic and military power to challenge U.S. primacy and to
intimidate regional states from relying on the U.S. tomaintain regional security.
Chineseleaders,however,willhavetoweightheeconomiccostsofanadventurousforeignpolicy.ChinahasamassivetradesurpluswithVietnamwhichitwouldloseif
hostilitieserupted.Vietnamhas skillfullymanaged relationswithamorepowerful
China in thepast.Atpresent leaders inbothcountriesareattempting toprevent
SouthChinaSea issues from spillingoverandaffectivebilateral relations.China is
alsounderexternalpressuretotonedownitsassertiveness.IfVietnamremainsfirm
onitsprinciplesbutflexibleonspecificissuesitshouldmollifyChineseleaderswho
seekVietnameserecognitionoftheirmorepowerfulstatus.Chinawillalsohaveto
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calculatethatincreasingpressureonVietnamcouldbecounterproductiveandlead
to increased U.S. involvement. Chinese pressures on the Philippines have only
succeededinsolidifyingitsalliancewiththeU.S.