8/6/2019 Thayer China's Military Exercise: Annual Drill or Warning to Vietnam?

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Background Briefing:

Chinas Military Exercise:

Annual Drill or Warning to

Vietnam?

Carlyle A. Thayer

August 14, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

IhavejustreceivednewsaboutarecentmilitarydrillbyChinanearVietnamsborder

(pleaseseenewsbelow).

InsomeVietnameseblogs,bloggerssayChinawant tosendawarningmessage to

Vietnamthroughitsmilitarydrill.Couldyoupleasegivemeyourassessmentofthis

issue?

1.Whatisthepurposeofthisdrill?

ANSWER:OfficialChineseDefenceMinistrysourcesclaimthatthemilitaryexercises

inGuangxiZhuangAutonomousRegion isaroutinedrill.Becauseof tensionsover

theSouthChinaSeathere isadangerthatanymilitaryactionbyonepartywillbe

misinterpreted by the other throughmisperception. In this case, as a confidence

buildingmeasureChinaandVietnamshouldinformeachotherinadvancewhenthey

carryoutmilitaryexercisesneartheborderarea.

Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123

PLA'soperationinSChinaroutinedrill:MinistryUpdated:2011080917:49(Xinhua)

BEIJING China'sMinistry ofNationalDefense on Tuesday said

thata recentPeople's LiberationArmy (PLA)operation in south

Chinawasaroutinedrill.

MediareportshavespeculatedthatalargebuildupofPLAtroops

in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region along the Vietnam

China border could be related to the recent tensions over the

SouthChinaSea.

Astatementpublishedonthefrontpageoftheministry'swebsite,

www.mod.gov.cn, said that the PLA's GuangzhouMilitary Area

Commandhadconductedanannualroutinedrillintheregionand

themediashouldnotleaptospeculations.

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2.DoyouthinkChinareallywantstosendsignaltoVietnam?

ANSWER:Thereareelements in thePeoplesLiberationArmy thatareangeredby

VietnamstandinguptoChinabyconductinglivefirenavalexercisesandannouncing

exemptionstoconscriptionintimesofemergency.Chinesemilitaryofficialsarealso

prone to seeing each and every Vietnamese action as being related to territorial

disputes intheSouthChinaSea.SomeChinesemilitaryofficialshaveputtheworstpossible spinonVietnameseU.S.navalexchangeactivities.These recentexercises

couldbeanattempttosendamessagetoVietnambutChinesereportinghasbeen

muted.

3.Chinesemedia(inChinese)isfullofnewssayingChinawillteachVietnamanother

lessonby launchingaquickwar that lastdaysagainstVietnam.Doyou think is it

possibleforChinadoitnowastheydidin1979waragainstVietnam?

ANSWER: The Chinese propagandists are playing mind games in an attempt to

intimidateVietnam.ClaimsthatChinacanteachVietnamalessoninashortconflict

arepartofthispattern.Chinesepropagandistswhoraisethisissuewoulddowellto

recalltheimmensecasualtiesthatthePeoplesLiberationArmysufferedin1979.

4.HowcanVietnamresisttothiskindofwar?

ANSWER:ThereisnoevidencethatChinaisamassingalargeinvasionforce.In1979

theyhadtomobilizeforcesfromseveralmilitaryregionsfarfromtheborderarea.

Vietnam can resist a Chinese military attack as it has in the past through the

mobilizationofthepeopleinaprotractedwar.

ThefirstquestiontoaskiswhatistheChineseobjectiveandwhethermilitaryforce

canaccomplishthisobjective.ThehistoryofVietnamswaragainsttheFrench,the

United States, as well as Lebanese resistance to Israel, clearly indicates that

conventional warfare can be resisted by asymmetric tactics and a protracted

strategy.

IfChinausedforceagainstVietnamiswouldsufferenormousconsequencesbythe

reactionofregionalstatesandtheirallies.

5. Ihaveheard fromofficials inVietnam'sMOFA [MinistryofForeignAffairs] that

Vietnamese leaders are afraid of new Chinese leaders in the next Chinese Party

Congresswhomayfollowahard linepolicytoVietnam.Doyouthinktherewillbe

influencefromthenextChinesepartyCongresstoVietnam'spolicyonChina?

ANSWER:Analystspredictthatamorenationalist leadershipwillemergewhoseek

to use Chinese economic and military power to challenge U.S. primacy and to

intimidate regional states from relying on the U.S. tomaintain regional security.

Chineseleaders,however,willhavetoweightheeconomiccostsofanadventurousforeignpolicy.ChinahasamassivetradesurpluswithVietnamwhichitwouldloseif

hostilitieserupted.Vietnamhas skillfullymanaged relationswithamorepowerful

China in thepast.Atpresent leaders inbothcountriesareattempting toprevent

SouthChinaSea issues from spillingoverandaffectivebilateral relations.China is

alsounderexternalpressuretotonedownitsassertiveness.IfVietnamremainsfirm

onitsprinciplesbutflexibleonspecificissuesitshouldmollifyChineseleaderswho

seekVietnameserecognitionoftheirmorepowerfulstatus.Chinawillalsohaveto

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calculatethatincreasingpressureonVietnamcouldbecounterproductiveandlead

to increased U.S. involvement. Chinese pressures on the Philippines have only

succeededinsolidifyingitsalliancewiththeU.S.