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Systems to Monitor and Evaluate Reconstruction Progress in AcehWorld Bank Economic Development Seminar Series
Jock McKeon – 27 March 2008World Bank
Tracking the money and monitoring progress
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The rationale of post-disaster monitoring and analysis
Quantify needs
Determine reconstruction priorities
Ascertain Government capacity
Allocate funds where they are most needed
Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable
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Reconstruction highlights Dec 07
US$6.8 billion allocated to projects US$4.2 billion (61% allocations) disbursed US$1.2 billion disbursed to housing Environment, Energy, and Flood Control
sectors remain under-funded Significant disbursements still required for
housing and transport sectors Disbursements in 2007 slower than
expected
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The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
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Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology
“Tracking the Money”
Reconstruction Physical Progress
Social and Economic Monitoring
M&E
On Budget
APBN
APBD
Off Budget
Donors
NGOs
# of house constructed# of school built# of health facilities builtAgriculture land restored# of boat built
InflationEmploymentWagesMaterial PricesPovertyIDPs
World BankBRR
BRRUNORCOthers
BPSBI
World Bank
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The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
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Damage and losses assessment
Guided by BAPPENAS with support from international agencies
Released in January 2005 to CGI
www.eclac.org/mexico/documentswww.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm
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Tsunami damage and losses
$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750
HousingTransport
EnvironmentFisheries
EnterpriseAgriculture & Livestock
Flood control, irrigation worksEducation
HealthGovernance & Admin (incl.
Community, culture and religionEnergy
Water & SanitationCommunicationsBank & Finance
Other Infrastructure
US$ millions
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The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
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Determining the needs – looking ahead
Value of Damages
Reconstruction needs
Reconstruction program
Financing Formula
= Damages
+ technological improvement
+ relocation costs
+ mitigation costs
+ losses relating to capacity development
+ inflation estimate
Consider:
Financing needs
Priorities for reconstruction
~ sectoral
~ geographical
Consider:
Government funds
Private sector funds
Insurance reimbursement
International grants
International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans)
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Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis
Inflation (YoY, 2002=100)
Tsunami Oil Price
8,5%
5,7%0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
J an-
04
Mar-
04
May-
04
J ul-
04
Sep-
04
Nov-
04
J an-
05
Mar-
05
May-
05
J ul-
05
Sep-
05
Nov-
05
J an-
06
Mar-
06
May-
06
J ul-
06
Sep-
06
Nov-
06
J an-
07
Mar-
07
May-
07
Source : BPSNational Banda Aceh Lhokseumaw e
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The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
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World Bank expenditure tracking methodology
OUTPUT Reports
Presentations
Analytical notes
Project Concept Notes
REC
ONST
RUCTI
ON D
ATA
BRR budget
Donor projects
NGO projects
Cle
anse
dat
a
Re
mov
e du
plic
ates
Al
loca
te t
o se
ctor
s
Ve
rify
dat
a
Con
duct
ana
lysi
s
Damage and Losses Assessment
NEEDS ASSESSMENT
DATA PROCESSING
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The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
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Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs(allocations minus needs)
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Com
mun
ity,
cul
ture
and
relig
ion
Gov
erna
nce
& A
dmin
(inc
l. L
and) H
ealt
h
Ente
rpri
se
Educ
atio
n
Wat
er &
San
itat
ion
Hou
sing
Tran
spor
t
Agr
icul
ture
&Li
vest
ock
Com
mun
icat
ions
Oth
er Inf
rast
ruct
ure
Fish
erie
s
Bank
& F
inan
ce
Floo
d co
ntro
l,ir
riga
tion
wor
ks
Ener
gy
Envi
ronm
ent
US$
million
s
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Spending progress to core minimum needs(disbursements minus needs)
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Hea
lth
Gov
erna
nce
& A
dmin
(incl
. Lan
d)
Ent
erpr
ise
Com
mun
ity, c
ultu
re a
ndre
ligio
n Edu
catio
n
Wat
er &
San
itatio
n
Agr
icul
ture
& L
ives
tock
Fis
herie
s
Ban
k &
Fin
ance
Oth
er In
fras
truc
ture
Com
mun
icat
ions
Ene
rgy
Env
ironm
ent
Flo
od c
ontr
ol, i
rrig
atio
nw
orks T
rans
port
Hou
sing
US
$ m
illio
ns
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The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
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Total commitments exceed minimum rebuilding costs: US$1.5 bn available for “building back better”
Aceh damage and loss assessment, 4.5
Nias, 0.4
Inflation, 1.3
GOI, 2.6
NGOs, 1.9
Donors, 2.3
Donors - grants, 0.3Donors - soft loans, 0.4Upgrading facilities in tsunami- and
earthquake- affected areas & post-conflict reintegation and development
programs, 1.5
NGOs, 0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10USD Billion
Build back
better - $1.5bn
Minimum required to rebuild to pre-tsunami levels - $6.2bn
Committed but not allocated - $0.9bn
Already allocated to specific projects - $6.8bn
Commitments Allocations
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Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07):US$7.7 bn committedUS$6.8 bn allocated to projectsUS$4.2 bn disbursed
2,642
1,656
1,877
1,233
2,324
1,289
GOI, 2,642
NGO, 2,100
Donor - grants, 2,600
Donors - loans, 400
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Commitment Allocated Disbursement
US$ millions
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Next steps?
Post-conflict monitoring
Continue monitoring of disbursements? (US$2.6 bn to be spent)
Is there potential for Govt to adopt this reconstruction monitoring? (BAPPEDA, BPDE?)
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Working papers
Managing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance - International Experience in Public Financial Management
Fengler W, Ihsan A, Kaiser K World Bank, 2008 Using Data for Ex-Ante Preparedness for Disaster
Management - Tracking the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami reconstruction funds in Indonesia
McKeon JM World Bank, 2008 Tracking Financial Flows after Disasters - Reconstruction
Expenditure Tracking Analysis Methodology (RETAM)
Fengler W World Bank, 2007 Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial
Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction
Agustina CD World Bank, 2007
http://go.worldbank.org/TTAEQW4DR0
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www.worldbank.org/id/reconstruction