Systems to Monitor and Evaluate Reconstruction Progress in AcehWorld Bank Economic Development Seminar Series

Jock McKeon – 27 March 2008World Bank

Tracking the money and monitoring progress

The rationale of post-disaster monitoring and analysis

Quantify needs

Determine reconstruction priorities

Ascertain Government capacity

Allocate funds where they are most needed

Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable

Reconstruction highlights Dec 07

US$6.8 billion allocated to projects US$4.2 billion (61% allocations) disbursed US$1.2 billion disbursed to housing Environment, Energy, and Flood Control

sectors remain under-funded Significant disbursements still required for

housing and transport sectors Disbursements in 2007 slower than

expected

The money-tracking journey

1. Assess the damages and losses

2. Determine needs

3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects

4. Identify the gaps

5. Monitor progress

Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology

“Tracking the Money”

Reconstruction Physical Progress

Social and Economic Monitoring

M&E

On Budget

APBN

APBD

Off Budget

Donors

NGOs

# of house constructed# of school built# of health facilities builtAgriculture land restored# of boat built

InflationEmploymentWagesMaterial PricesPovertyIDPs

World BankBRR

BRRUNORCOthers

BPSBI

World Bank

The money-tracking journey

1. Assess the damages and losses

2. Determine needs

3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects

4. Identify the gaps

5. Monitor progress

Damage and losses assessment

Guided by BAPPENAS with support from international agencies

Released in January 2005 to CGI

www.eclac.org/mexico/documentswww.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm

Tsunami damage and losses

$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750

HousingTransport

EnvironmentFisheries

EnterpriseAgriculture & Livestock

Flood control, irrigation worksEducation

HealthGovernance & Admin (incl.

Community, culture and religionEnergy

Water & SanitationCommunicationsBank & Finance

Other Infrastructure

US$ millions

The money-tracking journey

1. Assess the damages and losses

2. Determine needs

3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects

4. Identify the gaps

5. Monitor progress

Determining the needs – looking ahead

Value of Damages

Reconstruction needs

Reconstruction program

Financing Formula

= Damages

+ technological improvement

+ relocation costs

+ mitigation costs

+ losses relating to capacity development

+ inflation estimate

Consider:

Financing needs

Priorities for reconstruction

~ sectoral

~ geographical

Consider:

Government funds

Private sector funds

Insurance reimbursement

International grants

International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans)

Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis

Inflation (YoY, 2002=100)

Tsunami Oil Price

8,5%

5,7%0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

J an-

04

Mar-

04

May-

04

J ul-

04

Sep-

04

Nov-

04

J an-

05

Mar-

05

May-

05

J ul-

05

Sep-

05

Nov-

05

J an-

06

Mar-

06

May-

06

J ul-

06

Sep-

06

Nov-

06

J an-

07

Mar-

07

May-

07

Source : BPSNational Banda Aceh Lhokseumaw e

The money-tracking journey

1. Assess the damages and losses

2. Determine needs

3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects

4. Identify the gaps

5. Monitor progress

World Bank expenditure tracking methodology

OUTPUT Reports

Presentations

Analytical notes

Project Concept Notes

REC

ONST

RUCTI

ON D

ATA

BRR budget

Donor projects

NGO projects

Cle

anse

dat

a

Re

mov

e du

plic

ates

Al

loca

te t

o se

ctor

s

Ve

rify

dat

a

Con

duct

ana

lysi

s

Damage and Losses Assessment

NEEDS ASSESSMENT

DATA PROCESSING

The money-tracking journey

1. Assess the damages and losses

2. Determine needs

3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects

4. Identify the gaps

5. Monitor progress

Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs(allocations minus needs)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Com

mun

ity,

cul

ture

and

relig

ion

Gov

erna

nce

& A

dmin

(inc

l. L

and) H

ealt

h

Ente

rpri

se

Educ

atio

n

Wat

er &

San

itat

ion

Hou

sing

Tran

spor

t

Agr

icul

ture

&Li

vest

ock

Com

mun

icat

ions

Oth

er Inf

rast

ruct

ure

Fish

erie

s

Bank

& F

inan

ce

Floo

d co

ntro

l,ir

riga

tion

wor

ks

Ener

gy

Envi

ronm

ent

US$

million

s

Spending progress to core minimum needs(disbursements minus needs)

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Hea

lth

Gov

erna

nce

& A

dmin

(incl

. Lan

d)

Ent

erpr

ise

Com

mun

ity, c

ultu

re a

ndre

ligio

n Edu

catio

n

Wat

er &

San

itatio

n

Agr

icul

ture

& L

ives

tock

Fis

herie

s

Ban

k &

Fin

ance

Oth

er In

fras

truc

ture

Com

mun

icat

ions

Ene

rgy

Env

ironm

ent

Flo

od c

ontr

ol, i

rrig

atio

nw

orks T

rans

port

Hou

sing

US

$ m

illio

ns

The money-tracking journey

1. Assess the damages and losses

2. Determine needs

3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects

4. Identify the gaps

5. Monitor progress

Total commitments exceed minimum rebuilding costs: US$1.5 bn available for “building back better”

Aceh damage and loss assessment, 4.5

Nias, 0.4

Inflation, 1.3

GOI, 2.6

NGOs, 1.9

Donors, 2.3

Donors - grants, 0.3Donors - soft loans, 0.4Upgrading facilities in tsunami- and

earthquake- affected areas & post-conflict reintegation and development

programs, 1.5

NGOs, 0.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10USD Billion

Build back

better - $1.5bn

Minimum required to rebuild to pre-tsunami levels - $6.2bn

Committed but not allocated - $0.9bn

Already allocated to specific projects - $6.8bn

Commitments Allocations

Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07):US$7.7 bn committedUS$6.8 bn allocated to projectsUS$4.2 bn disbursed

2,642

1,656

1,877

1,233

2,324

1,289

GOI, 2,642

NGO, 2,100

Donor - grants, 2,600

Donors - loans, 400

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Commitment Allocated Disbursement

US$ millions

Next steps?

Post-conflict monitoring

Continue monitoring of disbursements? (US$2.6 bn to be spent)

Is there potential for Govt to adopt this reconstruction monitoring? (BAPPEDA, BPDE?)

Working papers

Managing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance - International Experience in Public Financial Management

Fengler W, Ihsan A, Kaiser K World Bank, 2008 Using Data for Ex-Ante Preparedness for Disaster

Management - Tracking the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami reconstruction funds in Indonesia

McKeon JM World Bank, 2008 Tracking Financial Flows after Disasters - Reconstruction

Expenditure Tracking Analysis Methodology (RETAM)

Fengler W World Bank, 2007 Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial

Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction

Agustina CD World Bank, 2007

http://go.worldbank.org/TTAEQW4DR0

www.worldbank.org/id/reconstruction