Universitas*Gadjah*Mada*Master*Programme*in*Natural*Disaster*Management*

MIDTERM*EXAMINATION*DATA*PROCESSING*TECHNIQUES*

Dr.$Istiarto$|$Thursday,$24$October$2013$|$120$minutes$|$Open$Book$|$W/O$Computer$

PROBLEM*A*Table*below*presents*the*number*of*landslide*occurrences*during*heavy*rain*and*earthquake*at*a*region*within*a*certain*period*of*time*in*the*past.*

* * Seismic*intensity*[Richter]** * 5*Q*7* 7*Q*9* >*9*

Rainfall*[mm]* 100*Q*200* Q* 2* 1*

200*Q*300* 3* 1* 2*

>*300* 1* 1* Q**Event*A*represents*landslide*during*200Q300*mm*rainfall*and*Event*B*represents*landslide*during*earthquake*of*>*7*Richter*scale.*Using*frequency*to*estimate*the*probability,*what*are*the*probabilities*of*the*following*events:*prob(A),*prob(B),*prob(A**B),*prob(A*|*B),*prob(B*|*A).*You*may*use*Venn*diagram*to*show*these*occurrences.*

PROBLEM*B*Table*below*presents*the*annual*series*of*maximum*daily*rainfall*in*a*station,*R*[mm].*The*data*follow*normal*distribution.*

Rainfall*[mm]* Frequency*100* −* 140* 2*140* −* 180* 9*180* −* 220* 11*220* −* 260* 7*260* −* 300* 3*

*1) Draw*the*relative*frequency*and*the*pdf*according*to*normal*distribution*on*the*same*chart.*2) Estimate*prob(150*mm*<*R*<*210*mm).*3) Estimate*the*95%*confidence*limits*of*the*mean.*4) How*confident*are*we*with*rainfall*mean*of*190*mm*to*200*mm.*5) Estimate*the*90%*confidence*limits*of*the*variance*or*standard*deviation.*

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