soal uts data proc techniques 2013 - istiartoistiarto.staff.ugm.ac.id/docs/dpt/soal uts data proc...

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Universitas Gadjah Mada Master Programme in Natural Disaster Management MIDTERM EXAMINATION DATA PROCESSING TECHNIQUES Dr. Istiarto | Thursday, 24 October 2013 | 120 minutes | Open Book | W/O Computer PROBLEM A Table below presents the number of landslide occurrences during heavy rain and earthquake at a region within a certain period of time in the past. Seismic intensity [Richter] 5Q7 7Q9 >9 Rainfall [mm] 100 Q 200 Q 2 1 200 Q 300 3 1 2 > 300 1 1 Q Event A represents landslide during 200Q300 mm rainfall and Event B represents landslide during earthquake of > 7 Richter scale. Using frequency to estimate the probability, what are the probabilities of the following events: prob(A), prob(B), prob(A B), prob(A | B), prob(B | A). You may use Venn diagram to show these occurrences. PROBLEM B Table below presents the annual series of maximum daily rainfall in a station, R [mm]. The data follow normal distribution. Rainfall [mm] Frequency 100 140 2 140 180 9 180 220 11 220 260 7 260 300 3 1) Draw the relative frequency and the pdf according to normal distribution on the same chart. 2) Estimate prob(150 mm < R < 210 mm). 3) Estimate the 95% confidence limits of the mean. 4) How confident are we with rainfall mean of 190 mm to 200 mm. 5) Estimate the 90% confidence limits of the variance or standard deviation. Qo0oQ

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Page 1: Soal UTS Data Proc Techniques 2013 - Istiartoistiarto.staff.ugm.ac.id/docs/dpt/Soal UTS Data Proc Techniques... · Title: Microsoft Word - Soal UTS Data Proc Techniques 2013.docx

Universitas*Gadjah*Mada*Master*Programme*in*Natural*Disaster*Management*

MIDTERM*EXAMINATION*DATA*PROCESSING*TECHNIQUES*

Dr.$Istiarto$|$Thursday,$24$October$2013$|$120$minutes$|$Open$Book$|$W/O$Computer$

PROBLEM*A*Table*below*presents*the*number*of*landslide*occurrences*during*heavy*rain*and*earthquake*at*a*region*within*a*certain*period*of*time*in*the*past.*

* * Seismic*intensity*[Richter]** * 5*Q*7* 7*Q*9* >*9*

Rainfall*[mm]* 100*Q*200* Q* 2* 1*

200*Q*300* 3* 1* 2*

>*300* 1* 1* Q**Event*A*represents*landslide*during*200Q300*mm*rainfall*and*Event*B*represents*landslide*during*earthquake*of*>*7*Richter*scale.*Using*frequency*to*estimate*the*probability,*what*are*the*probabilities*of*the*following*events:*prob(A),*prob(B),*prob(A**B),*prob(A*|*B),*prob(B*|*A).*You*may*use*Venn*diagram*to*show*these*occurrences.*

PROBLEM*B*Table*below*presents*the*annual*series*of*maximum*daily*rainfall*in*a*station,*R*[mm].*The*data*follow*normal*distribution.*

Rainfall*[mm]* Frequency*100* −* 140* 2*140* −* 180* 9*180* −* 220* 11*220* −* 260* 7*260* −* 300* 3*

*1) Draw*the*relative*frequency*and*the*pdf*according*to*normal*distribution*on*the*same*chart.*2) Estimate*prob(150*mm*<*R*<*210*mm).*3) Estimate*the*95%*confidence*limits*of*the*mean.*4) How*confident*are*we*with*rainfall*mean*of*190*mm*to*200*mm.*5) Estimate*the*90%*confidence*limits*of*the*variance*or*standard*deviation.*

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Qo0oQ*

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