INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY
Russian gas:between Europe and Asia
Alexey GROMOVPhD in Economic Geography
Deputy General DirectorInstitute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
Russian Energy Sector in the world
1st place in gas extraction and gas stock1st place in oil extraction
1st place in gas export2st place in oil export
Resources Share in world indicators, %
Stock Extraction Тrade
Oil 12 (6,1*) 12,8 10,6
Gas 45 (26,7*) 21,5 25,0
Coal 24,9 5,1 15,2
* - prouved reserves
Square – 11,4%Population – 2,6%
Russia in the World: a real pantry of power resources
2
Energy Sector in Russian Economy: a real basis
Energy sector
30% of GDP65% of total Export
50% of Budget Incomes
3
State Energy Policy in Russia
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Subsoil resources
management
Development of home energy markets
Formation of rational energy balance
Social policy in the energy
sector
Regional energy policy
External energy policy
Scientific, technical and innovative policy
Strategic initiatives
Energ
y se
curit
y
Ener
gy e
ffici
ency
of e
cono
my
Econo
mic
effi
cien
cy o
f FEC
Ecolo
gica
l sec
urity
of F
EC
Management of state property
4
Program of long-term development
of the fuel and energy complex
of the Russian Far East
Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020
Strategy of development of
the power generation in the Russian Far East
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years
2009-2030
Eastern Gas
Program
General scheme of allocation of power
generating facilities for the year 2020
General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year
2030
General scheme of development of the gas industry for the
year 2030
Conception of the state program for exploration and
exploitation of the continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
ES-2030
State program of energy saving
Investment programs of energy companies
Energy Strategy (ES-2030) is a key document for Russian Energy Policy
5
Russian priorities in the natural gas export:diversification & safety
6
Russian gas production up to 2030
Potential gas production is sufficient to meet any demand
7
new
are
asChanges of Russian gas production map
New areas (Yamal, Eastern Siberia and Far East) wil l provide more than 40% of Russian gas production up to 2030
8
Targets of gas export: shift to the East
9
10
Western gas policy in ES-2030: key projects & goals
�Nord Stream-2 (end 2012)
�South Stream (projected)• Preservation of the occupied share in
the European gas market (more than 30% in EU-27)
• Increase of gas export revenues (275 bln USD in 2010)
• Security of Russian gas deliveries to Europe, including transit questions
• Maintenance of status quo in Caspian Region
• Using of Russian gas infrastructure to export Caspian gas to EU-27
10
Eastern gas policy in ES-2030: key projects & goals
�LNG Projects in Sakhalin
�Natural gas Export to China
• Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far Eastin gas production – 14-15%
• LNG share in gas export – 14-15%
• Share of the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region in the structure of gas export – 20%
11
Export expectations vs. reality
368
349
234
203
300
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
2008 (факт) 2009 (факт) 2010 2015 2020 2030
bcm
Forecast 2030 max Forecast 2030 min Our expectationes
Risk of decrease in export on 15-20%
15-20%
Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030 Factors of decrease in export expectations
Europe: �Competition growth
US: � refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production)
Asia-Pacific: � competition growth (Central Asia)
12
European market stagnates…
13
The excess of imports share of 40% led to a stagnation of the demand in the EU-27
14
Stagnation
*The deficit was not considered deliveries from Norway
Increase in the share of imports - key threat to the energy security of many countries
Bcm per annum
Deficit, %
Share of import in demand Demand
Russian share in EU gas market is declined…
Russia loses price competition in Europe…
NBP spot Russian gas at the Germany border Brent
doll. per tcm
doll. for barr.
But spot prices will grow, also limiting demand
5
North Stream and South Stream instead of Ukraine?
North Stream – 55 bln cub m South Stream - 63 bln cub m
118 bln cub m – average volume of Ukrainian gas transi t to Europe
South Stream against Nabucco?
7Trans-Caspian pipeline is a key issue for both projec ts
Resource pause inevitable and in new markets
19
Resource pause in China 2020-ies
The expected volume of own production by 2020
The threshold of import 40%
Bcm per annum
Conclusions
20
Thank you for your attention
www.energystrategy.ru
Alexey GROMOV
Deputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
The Energy of the Future in our Hands