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Principal Investigator:Dr. Amir Muhammed, DirectorAsianics Agro. Dev. International, Islamabad, Pakistan
Countries Involved: Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh
Intended Period : 3 Years; Approved First Year(2002) Activities
APN
APN, Hansen Institute for World Peace, START
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BangladeshIndia
NepalPakistan
N
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Statement of the Problem
The region is highly sensitive to flood and drought
The elements/sectors currently at risk are likely tohighly vulnerable to climate change and variability
There exist uncertainties in dealing with vulnerabilities associated to climate change and variability because of:
* lack of synthesis of experience in climate trendsand extreme events
* insufficient baseline information about current impact, adaptation response/capacity and vulnerabilities
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Research Questions
What are the element at risk to drought and flood in the present and in the future climate change scenario ?
What are the possible of options to deal with the vulnerabilities associated toClimate change and variability ?
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Main Objectives• Analyze recent experience in climate variability and
extreme events, and their impacts on regional water resources
Assess the impacts of projected climate change and variability and associated extreme hydrological events, and socio-economic changes on the water resources of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh
Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change and identifying key risks to each sub-region and prioritizing adaptation responses
Evaluate the efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regional water resources
Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies
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Research Framework
Past/current variability& trend
Existing adaptiveResponses/capacity
Current vulnerability
Lesson learned
Link to policy/stakeholder
Climate change scenarios
Socio-economic change scenarios
Future vulnerabilities
Future adaptive response/capacity
National development plans/priorities
External influenceTrans-boundary, regional& global factors
Alternative policy options and priority measures for policy makers/stakeholdersBased on Burton, I
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Methodology
Literature review and synthesis of findings
Use of the GCM models for climate change scenarios
Use of GIS tools for vulnerability mapping
Collection of data for SHUs (Selected Hydrological Units) presently at risk - Field survey and key actor interviews
Impact assessment-Loss/damage of life and property (lives, agriculture, forestry, infrastructure)- water availability/quality- food availability- social equity- human health- population displacement/ migration- others
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Vulnerability assessmentInventory of elements exposed to climatic hazard
Population ( sex, age, caste/ethnicity, income groups)
Infrastructure ( settlement, engineering infrastructure, institutions)
Economy ( Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries) industry, trade)
Environment (Land use/land cover and biodiversity)
Adaptation assessments
MethodsStakeholder consultationParticipatory toolsCost benefit analysisExpert JudgmentPolicy measures and action plan
Robustness
Resilience
Ability, Availability of resourceEfficiency Options to respond
Resources, Institutionsgovernance, attitude, Perception etc
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Assessment of vulnerability of regional water resources to expected climate change
Identification of extreme hydrologic events from historical record that had major regional impacts and a thorough analysis of regional vulnerability and adaptation practices that were used to deal with such disasters
An assessment of adaptation options and coping mechanisms in the region
Relevant to anticipated regional climate change and water resource availability and use
Inputs to national and regional water resource management and policy/decision making community as well as the next round of the IPCC Assessments Several publications in scientific journals and a book
Expected Outcomes
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Pakistan’s Country Report
Syed Amjad Hussain ( Pakistan)
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Analysis of recent climatic variability and extreme events Impacts of climatic variability and extreme events on water and related sectors Climatic change and socio-economic scenarios Projected Impacts and vulnerability
1st Year Thrust Areas
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National Scale Studies Climatic Variability Impacts on Water Resources and other
Sectors Socio-economic Impacts
Target Areas-I
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Target Areas-II District Scale Studies
Climatic Variability Extreme Events Impacts on Water Resources and other
Sectors Socio-economic Impacts
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1st Thrust Area
Analysis of RecentClimatic Variabilityand Extreme Events
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Historical data of temperature and rainfall of selected periods :
1930-601960-1990
Recent data of temperature and rainfall for :1991-2001
Collection of Climatic Data
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Analysis of Climatic Variability
Temperature Growing degree days Seasonal rainfall Evapotranspiration
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Analysis of Extreme Events
Droughts Seasonal rainfall Evapotranspiration
Floods Seasonal rainfall Evapotranspiration
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2nd Thrust AreaImpacts of climatic variability and extreme events on water and related sectors
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River flow Water table depths Groundwater quality Soil salinity Land salinity Land use Area and yield of crops
Collection of Historical Data
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Impacts Assessment Change in availability of surface water Change in groundwater recharge Change in salinity/waterlogging Shift in potential boundary of crop potential areas Change in productivity Change in water use of crops Change in landuse
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3rd Thrust Area
Climatic change and socio-economic
scenarios
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Socio-economic Impacts Agriculture Forestry Desertification Costal zone Human health Industry and energy Endangered species
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4th Thrust Area
Projected Impacts and Vulnerability
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Projected Impacts Projected production of Agricultural Commodities Demand of Agricultural Commodities Water Availability for Agriculture
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Vulnerability Assessment
Potential vulnerability of crops to heat stress Potential vulnerability of cropping intensity to drought
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Thank you very much