Principal Investigator:Dr. Amir Muhammed, DirectorAsianics Agro. Dev. International, Islamabad, Pakistan

Countries Involved: Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh

Intended Period : 3 Years; Approved First Year(2002) Activities

APN

APN, Hansen Institute for World Peace, START

BangladeshIndia

NepalPakistan

N

Statement of the Problem

The region is highly sensitive to flood and drought

The elements/sectors currently at risk are likely tohighly vulnerable to climate change and variability

There exist uncertainties in dealing with vulnerabilities associated to climate change and variability because of:

* lack of synthesis of experience in climate trendsand extreme events

* insufficient baseline information about current impact, adaptation response/capacity and vulnerabilities

Research Questions

What are the element at risk to drought and flood in the present and in the future climate change scenario ?

What are the possible of options to deal with the vulnerabilities associated toClimate change and variability ?

Main Objectives• Analyze recent experience in climate variability and

extreme events, and their impacts on regional water resources

Assess the impacts of projected climate change and variability and associated extreme hydrological events, and socio-economic changes on the water resources of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh

Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change and identifying key risks to each sub-region and prioritizing adaptation responses

Evaluate the efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regional water resources

Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies

Research Framework

Past/current variability& trend

Existing adaptiveResponses/capacity

Current vulnerability

Lesson learned

Link to policy/stakeholder

Climate change scenarios

Socio-economic change scenarios

Future vulnerabilities

Future adaptive response/capacity

National development plans/priorities

External influenceTrans-boundary, regional& global factors

Alternative policy options and priority measures for policy makers/stakeholdersBased on Burton, I

Methodology

Literature review and synthesis of findings

Use of the GCM models for climate change scenarios

Use of GIS tools for vulnerability mapping

Collection of data for SHUs (Selected Hydrological Units) presently at risk - Field survey and key actor interviews

Impact assessment-Loss/damage of life and property (lives, agriculture, forestry, infrastructure)- water availability/quality- food availability- social equity- human health- population displacement/ migration- others

Vulnerability assessmentInventory of elements exposed to climatic hazard

Population ( sex, age, caste/ethnicity, income groups)

Infrastructure ( settlement, engineering infrastructure, institutions)

Economy ( Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries) industry, trade)

Environment (Land use/land cover and biodiversity)

Adaptation assessments

MethodsStakeholder consultationParticipatory toolsCost benefit analysisExpert JudgmentPolicy measures and action plan

Robustness

Resilience

Ability, Availability of resourceEfficiency Options to respond

Resources, Institutionsgovernance, attitude, Perception etc

Assessment of vulnerability of regional water resources to expected climate change

Identification of extreme hydrologic events from historical record that had major regional impacts and a thorough analysis of regional vulnerability and adaptation practices that were used to deal with such disasters

An assessment of adaptation options and coping mechanisms in the region

Relevant to anticipated regional climate change and water resource availability and use

Inputs to national and regional water resource management and policy/decision making community as well as the next round of the IPCC Assessments Several publications in scientific journals and a book

Expected Outcomes

Pakistan’s Country Report

Syed Amjad Hussain ( Pakistan)

Analysis of recent climatic variability and extreme events Impacts of climatic variability and extreme events on water and related sectors Climatic change and socio-economic scenarios Projected Impacts and vulnerability

1st Year Thrust Areas

National Scale Studies Climatic Variability Impacts on Water Resources and other

Sectors Socio-economic Impacts

Target Areas-I

Target Areas-II District Scale Studies

Climatic Variability Extreme Events Impacts on Water Resources and other

Sectors Socio-economic Impacts

1st Thrust Area

Analysis of RecentClimatic Variabilityand Extreme Events

Historical data of temperature and rainfall of selected periods :

1930-601960-1990

Recent data of temperature and rainfall for :1991-2001

Collection of Climatic Data

Analysis of Climatic Variability

Temperature Growing degree days Seasonal rainfall Evapotranspiration

Analysis of Extreme Events

Droughts Seasonal rainfall Evapotranspiration

Floods Seasonal rainfall Evapotranspiration

2nd Thrust AreaImpacts of climatic variability and extreme events on water and related sectors

River flow Water table depths Groundwater quality Soil salinity Land salinity Land use Area and yield of crops

Collection of Historical Data

Impacts Assessment Change in availability of surface water Change in groundwater recharge Change in salinity/waterlogging Shift in potential boundary of crop potential areas Change in productivity Change in water use of crops Change in landuse

3rd Thrust Area

Climatic change and socio-economic

scenarios

Socio-economic Impacts Agriculture Forestry Desertification Costal zone Human health Industry and energy Endangered species

4th Thrust Area

Projected Impacts and Vulnerability

Projected Impacts Projected production of Agricultural Commodities Demand of Agricultural Commodities Water Availability for Agriculture

Vulnerability Assessment

Potential vulnerability of crops to heat stress Potential vulnerability of cropping intensity to drought

Thank you very much