Download - Predicting Crime - Cadcorp · Predicting Crime Author: O'Hara, Ben Created Date: 1/27/2017 2:16:38 PM
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Predicting CrimeBen O’Hara
Information Specialist
West Yorkshire Police
ben.o’[email protected]
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Burglary Dwellings in Leeds District
0
200
400
600
800
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Jun
07
Au
g 07
Oct
07
Dec
07
Feb
08
Ap
r 0
8
Jun
08
Au
g 08
Oct
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Dec
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Ap
r 0
9
Jun
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Au
g 09
Oct
09
Dec
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Feb
10
Ap
r 1
0
Jun
10
Au
g 10
Oct
10
Dec
10
Feb
11
Ap
r 1
1
Jun
11
Au
g 11
Oct
11
Dec
11
Feb
12
Crimes
Crimes
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Predicting Crime
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Operation Optimal
• Op Trafford in GMP reduced Burglaries by 38%
• Optimal Forager Theory• A criminal will return to a ‘successful’ area, until something disrupts that
feeling of comfort
• “In domestic burglary, for example, the danger of a further crime is greatest at the home of the original victim and spreads out to some 400 metres, but disappears over 6 weeks to 2 months”Ross & Pease (2007)
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Operation Optimal
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Patrol Plan
![Page 7: Predicting Crime - Cadcorp · Predicting Crime Author: O'Hara, Ben Created Date: 1/27/2017 2:16:38 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042118/5e97835eba2a537cfd753e66/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Burglary Dwellings in Leeds District
0
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n 0
7
Sep
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Dec
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Crimes Optimal
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Patrolwise
• Developed by UCL
• Python scripts produce a “patrol plan” identifying which streets are at highest risk of crime
• Maps are accessed on mobile devices indicating the areas that should be patrolled & suggested times.
![Page 9: Predicting Crime - Cadcorp · Predicting Crime Author: O'Hara, Ben Created Date: 1/27/2017 2:16:38 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042118/5e97835eba2a537cfd753e66/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Diffusion
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Crime Pattern Theory
Home
Work/School
Friends
Entertainment & Shopping
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Betweenness
• We can’t measure which streets a person will use most often
• Betweenness acts as a proxy to identify which streets have the greatest chance of being used for routine travel
![Page 12: Predicting Crime - Cadcorp · Predicting Crime Author: O'Hara, Ben Created Date: 1/27/2017 2:16:38 PM](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042118/5e97835eba2a537cfd753e66/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Patrol Plans
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
The current process
• UCL Python script produces Esri Shape File
• Automation scripts1. Upload the data into SQL Database
2. Use GeognoSIS WML to generate an image of each patrol area
3. Send the images via email to the Sgts involved
• Sgts forward the emails on to the officers deployed to those areas
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
The future process
• UCL Python script produces Esri Shape File
• Automation scripts1. Upload the data into SQL Database
• Sgts deploy officers to a patrol plan
• Officers access Cadcorp Web Map Layers on their mobile phones showing the patrol areas, along with associated intelligence, local points of interest, etc.
• Should they be deployed to an area with poor coverage, the software on the phones will have cached the image, using GeognoSIS WML, along with available intelligence.
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Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2017
Questions?