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Perfectly placed for businessA Strategy for Smart Economic Growth in Hertfordshire,
2013-2030: Consultation Draft
June 2013
HertfordshireLocal Enterprise Partnership
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Introduction
At a glance
Hertfordshires economy today
Our Vision for Hertfordshire
Our Strategy for Smart Economic Growth in
Hertfordshire, 2013-2030Priority 1 -Nurturing science based Enterprise and
Innovation
Priority 2 - Harnessing our relationships with London
Priority 3 - Re-invigorating vibrant towns or the 21st
Century
What success will look like
Next steps
1
2
3
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10
11
14
17
21
22
Contents
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Against this backdrop, I am pleased to present the consultation drat o our Strategy or Smart EconomicGrowth in Hertordshire. I hope you will take the time to read and comment on it.
Hertordshire has had economic strategies beore. But I believe this one is dierent or three important reasons:
This strategy is ambitious, and it seeks to achieve smart growth,not growth at any cost which
none o us want. We live and work in Hertordshire as do our amilies and we are committed to
enhancing the quality o lie that Hertordshire provides
This strategy is about our businesses and our places, and it embraces a diferent kind o
thinking about Hertordshire.This means that challenges and solutions need to be advanced at
various scales sometimes more locally, and oten in discussion and dialogue with other LEPs. It alsocalls or a dierent kind o dialogue across Hertordshire, particularly between businesses and local
authorities: less conrontational, more reective and ar more ocused on the long term
This strategy is about us. Government has asked us to prepare a strategy or economic growth, but
beyond that, there are no centrally prescribed templates, targets or lines o accountability. Based on
evidence, our strategy thereore sets out what we believe needs to happen to secure the uture o our
businesses and our places.
Overall, in preparing this strategy, our Guiding Principle can be summarised simply: to grow smartly as a perect
place or business.
Over the next ew weeks, I am very keen to hear your thoughts on our drat strategy. I hope you might be able
to attend our stakeholder event in late June and also that you will spend a ew minutes completing our on-line
response orm [http://www.keysurvey.co.uk//520255/17ba/].
But we are also acutely aware that we need to progress quickly rom a high level strategy to a clear and
deliverable implementation plan. We will be working with partners on this over the summer months and
into the autumn as the basis o our something or something Local Growth Deal with Government. There is
much to do but also much to gain: the LEP Board is committed to working closely with partners to make rapid
progress.
Many thanks,
John GourdChair, Hertordshire LEP
June 2013
Introduction
Dear Colleagues,
This is an exciting time or businesses in Hertordshire. It is also a uniquely
important one. We benet rom a strong local economy and our economy could be
outstanding and as the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) or Hertordshire we are
committed to achieving this outcome.
The Coalition Government has tasked us and the other 38 LEPs across England
withdriving orward economic recovery. Following Lord Heseltines report, Budget
2013 made provision or the creation o a Single Local Growth Fund, devolved to the
local level through new Local Growth Deals. In addition, Ministers have committed
to devolving the majority o the 2014-2020 EU Structural and Investment Funds to
LEPs.
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At a glance
Hertordshires economy is perorming well compared to elsewhere but it is slipping back relatively. For the
benet o this and uture generations, we need to address this relative decline. Government has given us a
unique opportunity to respond but exactly how we respond is up to us.
Hertordshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) wants to pursue a strategy osmart growth. This is not growth
at any cost. Instead, it is growth based on knowledge and innovation, and which is concerned with promoting
a more resource ecient, greener and competitive economy.
We have identied our vision, that by 2030 Herordshire will be the leading economy at the heart o the
UKs golden triangle.
Our three priorities listed below will ensure we are able to take this vision orward. These represent major
opportunities or Hertordshire:
Nurturing science based Enterprise and Innovation
Harnessing our relationships with London
Re-invigorating vibrant towns or the 21st Century.
In addressing these three priorities, we will ensure that Hertordshire is Perectly Placed or Business.
Over the summer and in the early autumn, we will develop a detailed implementation plan in order to advance
to these Priorities, and to make them happen.
First however we would like to know whether you agree with our Vision and Priorities. Details o how to
respond to our consultation are available on our website.
Our consultation drat Strategy or Smart Economic Growth
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Hertordshireseconomy today
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Hertordshires Economy Today
Good
On most national benchmarks, Hertordshires economylooks good.
Recent analysis suggests that Hertordshire has
the ourth most resilient economy among 39 Local
Enterprise Partnership (LEP) areas in England; and
on this composite assessment, it scores particularly
strongly with regard to its people1.
On the headline indicator o economic well-being
gross value added per capita it is ranked ourth
among LEP areas. Moreover, employment rates arerelatively high; unemployment rates are generally low;
and on qualication-based metrics, Hertordshires skills
base is outstanding.
So Hertordshire certainly does have a good local
economy. It also has a relatively large one: around
50,000 businesses2 collectively generate GVA3 to
the value o 26bn, and within the county there are
currently in the order o 600,000 jobs.
but not great
But dig beneath the surace and the picture is less
sanguine. Evidence suggests that the countys
apparently strong perormance is, essentially, an historic
legacy and a result o growth in the mid- to late-1990s
at which point its growth trajectory was spectacular.
Subsequently, the overall narrative has been mediocre.
It is, or example, telling that between 2006/07 and
2011/12, the stock o commercial oorspace (B Use
Class) within Hertordshire declined by almost 100,000sq m.
1. Understanding Resilience: Local EnterprisePartnerships,Experian, January 2012
2. Estimates o the size o the business population are raught.Technically, in 2011, Hertordshire had about 46,000 VAT and/
or PAYE-registered enterprises but 54,000 VAT and/or PAYE-registered units
3. GVA is Gross Value Added essentially the dierence betweeninput costs and output prices
4. Hertordshires Economic Outlook, 2011, Hertordshire CountyCouncil, October 2011
Analysis suggests that4:
Hertordshires growth perormance in terms
o economic output since 2001 has been
overshadowed by that o its neighbours,
particularly London and Cambridgeshire
Jobs growth in Hertordshire has been modest
in recent years: even beore the recession, some
districts saw an overall decline in private sector
employment
Hertordshires growth model has been dierent
rom that in London. The latter has combined
high GVA growth with low employment growth
(by losing lower productivity jobs to lower cost
destinations and replacing them by higher
productivity jobs).
The consequence has been that in relative terms,
Hertordshire has slipped. As the chart overlea
demonstrates, Hertordshire has seen only modest
growth o GVA per head since the late 1990s. On this
metric, its rate o growth has been similar to that o
the Tees Valley and York and North Yorkshire LEP areas;
it has been well below that o its near neighbours
(London, Greater Cambridge-Greater Peterborough,
Buckinghamshire Thames Valley, etc.).
The latest available data suggest that the median gross
weekly earnings o Hertordshires ull time employees
are notably higher on residence (597) than workplace-
based (539) measures. Patterns o commuting explain
the dierence. At the time o the 2001 Census, some20% o resident workers commuted to the capital, but
successive
County Travel Surveys have provided higher estimates
24% (in 2002) and 25% (in 2009). The ndings rom
the 2011 Census are awaited.
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Figure 1: Comparing LEP area economies
The result is that Hertordshires economy is under
some pressure. House prices are very high indeed
certainly in relation to what those employed locally can
aord to pay. In January 2013, the average price o a
house in Hertordshire was over 240,000: almost 50%
higher than the average or England and Wales and
100% higher than the average price in Hertordshire
at the start o the new millennium. Locally, the guresare more extreme: data rom Hometrack, or example,
suggest that between 2004 and 2012, the average price
o a house in St Albans (district) rose rom 288,500 to
421,000, while in neighbouring Watord, the increment
was more modest (rom 202,000 to 254,000)5.
The evidence, then, suggests a progressive hollowing
out o the economic base. There is no immediate
crisis but the clear direction o travel is troubling; it is
this that Hertordshire LEP is determined to remedy.
1.
2.3.4.5. Data taken rom St Albans City and District Council Monitoring
Report, April 2011-March 2012
major opportunities
Hertordshire has a tremendous endowment which
ought to provide a oundation or uture economic
growth. Uppermost within this is a working age
population o whom over 40% are qualied to degree
level or above.
The county is home to some leading edge knowledge-
based businesses. Specically, GlaxoSmithKline has a
signicant Hertordshire presence (pharmaceuticals), as
does EADS Astrium (satellites and space), Imagination
Technologies (multimedia and communication
technologies) and Johnson Matthey (speciality
chemicals). More generally, over 50% o Hertordshires
businesses are knowledge intensive a gure that is
ten percentage points higher than the UK average.
In addition, through Rothampsted Research, the county
has research expertise in plant-based bioscience;
through BRE, it is leading the way in sustainable
construction; and through Clare Hall, it has a majormedical research acility.
But what sets Hertordshire apart is its location at the
geographical heart o the UKs Golden Triangle. This
links London in the south with Oxord to the west
and Cambridge to the east. Inside this geography is
a very signicant proportion o the UKs current and
prospective uture knowledge-based intellectual
assets and horsepower: Hertordshire is at its
geographical core.
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Figure 2: Hertordshires strategic location at the heart o the Golden Triangle
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On most national benchmarks, Hertordshires economy looks good.
More generally, Hertordshire abuts a genuine world city and one which is growing very quickly. A report produced
recently by GLA Economics suggests that between 1997 and 2010, Londons share o headline GVA in nancial and
insurance activities rose rom 41% to 47% o the UK total, while that in proessional, scientic and technical activities
increased rom 32% to 36%6.
Hertordshire is also superbly located in relation to the rest o the UK. Both the east and west coast mainline rail
services pass through the county, and radial motorway routes rom London and o relevance to Hertordshire
include the M1 (to Milton Keynes and Leeds) , A1(m) (to Peterborough and York) and M11 (to Cambridge).
Looking ahead
This strategy is about our uture. In this context, we have to take note o wider trends and drivers, many o which are
not unique to Hertordshire but all o which will impact on our businesses, and the people who live and/or work here.
Some o the principal Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political (STEEP) trends and drivers that
have inormed our strategy are summarised in Figure 3 above.
Figure 3: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political trends and drivers that are likely to
shape Hertordshires economic uture
Consultation question 1: Theevidence points to a Hertordshire
economy that whilst still strong isslipping relative to its neighbours.Is this a picture that concerns you?
1.2.3.4.5.
6. Regional, sub-regional and local gross value added estimatesor London, 1997-2011 Melissa Wickham (January 2013): GLAEconomics, Current Issues Note 39
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Our Vision orHertordshire
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Our Vision is that by 2030 Herordshire will be the
leading economy at the heart o the UKs golden
triangle. Over the next two decades, Hertordshire willembrace a new agenda or economic growth that is at
once smart, sustainable and positive.
Smart growth is not growth at any cost. Instead,
it is growth which is premised on knowledge and
innovation, and which is concerned with promoting
a more resource ecient, greener and competitive
economy. Through smart growth, people and
businesses in Hertordshire should, genuinely, thrive.
Nurturing science based Enterprise andInnovation
By 2030, we want Hertordshire to be well established
as the leading economy at the heart o the UKs Golden
Triangle. We want it to be a catalyst or the production
and creative synthesis o ideas and insights across the
great technologies that are likely to shape the UKs
economic uture. Among these, this could mean a
particular role or Hertordshires businesses in relation
to:
satellites and commercial applications o space
lie sciences, genomics and synthetic biology
regenerative medicine
agri-science
the big data revolution and energy-ecient
computing.
Across all these domains, Hertordshire has signicant
assets already and enormous urther potential. Used
smartly, we need to make all this count.
Within this overall context, Hertordshire will be a place
where entrepreneurship is encouraged; where new
enterprises can orm; and where established ones
can grow. Moreover it will be a place where inward
investment is actively encouraged,
particularly when it contributes positively to
knowledge-based economic growth.
Businesses will be able to recruit the people they need
or R&D, or production, or the management and
commercialisation o both.
Harnessing our relationships with London
Whilst distinctive, Hertordshire will enjoy a condent
and synergistic relationship with London: it will
recognise and support the unctional growth o
London as a world city, and it will steer its own
economic growth aspirations purposely and in
response.
This will mean that it will pay particular attention to the
growth o our sectors:
lm and media
sport, leisure and cultural activities
nancial and business services high-end logistics.
Re-invigorating vibrant towns or the 21st
Century
In achieving its Vision and very much as part o it
we will embrace a new approach to our own spatial
development. Our towns will be re-energised as vibrant
urban economic hubs (with dierent solutions in
dierent places). In addition, some o our towns mustbe allowed to grow.
At the same time our high quality rural and urban
environments must be conserved.
The whole growth process will be smarter than
previously less conrontational, more reective and
galvanised by a genuine and shared commitment to
securing the uture o Hertordshire or both current
and uture generations o residents, workers and
businesses.
Our Vision or Hertordshire
Consultation question 2:
Our Vision or the uture oHertordshires economy is
ocused on smart, but ambitious,growth. Do you share ourVision?
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Our Strategy or Smart Economic Growth in
Hertordshire, 2013-2030
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Priority 1Nurturing science based
Enterprise and Innovation
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The opportunity
Hertordshires science-based knowledge economy is
extensive and diverse, and it is long established back
in the 1980s, it had an employment location quotient
o 3.6 (relative to GB)7
Today it includes many dierent strands, all o which are
private sector-led. For example:
lie sciences, which is dominated by large
pharmaceutical operations such as GSK, Eisai and
Merck Sharp & Dohme accounts or around 30,000
employee jobs
advanced engineering, including deence and
aerospace companies such as Smith Detection andEADS Astrium, and accounting or about 21,600
employee jobs
sotware, ICT and telecoms services, including
equipment producers and communications
integrators, such as Imagination Technologies
(Watord), which accounts or some 15,000 jobs,
principally in the west o Hertordshire.
Research-based assets within Hertordshire are also rst
rate. They include, inter alia, Rothampsted Research(agri-science) and BRE (sustainable construction)
The University o Hertordshire also has important
supporting specialisms.
The strengths, then, are substantial. In theory at least,
Hertordshire should have the wherewithal to exploit
them. It can point to a highly qualied workorce,
but also to people who are willing to work in the
supporting occupations on which many science-
based activities depend. There are also a number o
employment sites and premises that are close to the
main centres o the knowledge economy and these
ought to provide an important physical inrastructure.
Most importantly, it has a knowledge economy which
is genuinely led by the private sector.
1.2.3.4.5.
6.7. Location quotients are a measure o relative concentration a LQ o 1.0 denotes the same level o concentration as theaverage; 3.6 suggests a level o concentration which is overthree times higher
These assets are all the more potent in the context o
major investments in UK science which are being made
currently in both London and Cambridge.
In terms o the ormer, the Francis Crick Institute is
currently under construction. A partnership between
the Medical Research Council (MRC), Cancer Research
UK, the Wellcome Trust, UCL (University College
London), Imperial College London and Kings College
London, the Institute will employ over 1,000 scientists
at its site near Kings Cross and St Pancras.
Cambridge, meanwhile, has seen substantial recent and
on-going investment into the Cambridge Biomedical
Campus on the site o Addenbrookes Hospital. Inaddition, the decision o Astra Zeneca to relocate its
European R&D operations to Cambridge represents a
major investment.
Within Hertordshire and across the wider Golden
Triangle there is a world class asset base, which
is receiving urther investment: this represents a
huge opportunity or knowledge-based growth.
Hertordshire has the potential to become the private
sector-led core o this process.
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The risks
The scale o the opportunity is substantial, and the links
between Cambridge and London, and between Oxord
and London are strong, powerul and productive.
However in the process, there is a risk that Hertordshirecould simply be by-passed: Cambridge, in particular,
has ambitious growth plans and it has substantial
provision in the orm o well-located and high quality
science and business parks; a strong labour market
(particularly or bioscience); and a track record in
delivering the inrastructure that is needed to sustain
economic growth.
By contrast, Hertordshires recent track record in
securing inward investment has been mediocre
and its current oer in relation to the knowledge
economy is patchy. Among businesses in the county,there seems to be genuine uncertainty as to whether
Hertordshire as a whole really has the appetite to
respond. In addition, there is recognition that networks
and collaborations within Hertordshire are quite weak.
Linkages are very important, but these are requently
global. Against this backdrop, Hertordshire as a
brand, a location and an organising device needs to
be positioned judiciously.
Finally, across knowledge-based rms in general and
those in bioscience in particular there are currentlymajor challenges in relation to early stage nancing.
Promising businesses are struggling to secure the
capital they need to invest and grow. This problem
is by no means restricted to Hertordshire but it is a
major challenge looking ahead.
continuing to develop and support the principal
bioscience acilities within Hertordshire,
particularly BioPark (Welwyn Garden City) and
the GSK Biosicience Catalyst (Stevenage). In the
uture Watord Health Campus may also play a role.
More generally, it will be crucial that Hertordshire
provides the sites and premises demanded by
bioscience (and related) rms; only in this way willthe Golden Triangle have traction
engaging in a creative dialogue with the
bioscience community across the Golden
Triangle involving, One-Nucleus, OBN, UKTI
and the LEPs with responsibility or Cambridge,
London, and Oxordshire; this dialogue ought to
ocus, in particular, on inward investment and
the challenges o nancing early-stage business
growth. With regard to the latter, there is a need
to explore the scope to establish investment undsto address the equity gap acing bioscience (and
related) businesses across the Golden Triangle
actively ostering the growth o knowledge-
based businesses, including through the Growth
Hub (set up by the University o Hertordshire and
Hertordshire County Council) at Biopark
ensuring that Hertordshires wider physical
inrastructure is attuned to the opportunities
or economic growth at the core o the GoldenTriangle. Priorities will include the upgrading
o well-located strategic employment sites (e.g.
Gunnels Wood); and critical elements o the
strategic road inrastructure (e.g. A1(m) rom
Junction 6 to 8)
working with Hertordshires FE Colleges, key
businesses, and the University o Hertordshire
to support workorce development through
training provision and knowledge transer,
particularly in advanced manuacturing/
engineering and IT; apprenticeship programmes
will orm a key part o the response.
The strategic response
There are tremendous opportunities or Hertordshire
as the private sector core o Golden Triangle. However
these are not easy wins: realising them will require a
concerted and committed response.
This response is likely to include:
supporting the development o the Rothampsted
Enterprise and Research Centre, recognising its
potential (which longer term, could orm the core
o a more ambitious agri-science park) in relation to
one o the governments eight great technologies,
and also alongside BRE Group its role vis--visenvironmental/green technologies
Consultation question 3: Doyou agree that nurturing science
based Enterprise and Innovation(through better access tofnance, improved collaboration
and promotion, targetedinrastructural investment, etc.)should be a priority?
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Priority 2Harnessing our relationshipswith London
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The opportunity
London has experienced tremendous growth over the last
two decades, including throughout the recent recession.
Londons share o the UKs population, employment andoutput has risen rapidly, and international investment
particularly into property has been phenomenal.
Precipitated in part by the 2012 Olympic/Paralympic Games,
London has also seen substantial inrastructure investment
and more is planned/underway not least Crossrail
and HS2. Notwithstanding the nancial crisis and the
implications or the City o London the extraordinary
growth o London as a rst division world city seems set
to continue. Over recent months, or example, Google
has completed a 1bn property deal to move its UK
headquarters to a browneld site in the Kings Cross area:the seven and 11 storey complex is due or completion in
2016.
Developments in London are creating major opportunities
or adjacent areas, not least Hertordshire. These include
economic activities that are, eectively, priced out o central
London; activities that are providing services to Londons
burgeoning population; and any activities which at root
require space.
Four sectors appear to bring particular opportunities or
Hertordshire within this context:
lm and media noting that Hertordshire has world
class assets in the orm o Leavesden (home o Warner
Bros) and Elstree, and that it can also oer a wide range
o lming locations
sport, leisure and cultural activities recognising, in
particular, the ootprint o the 2012 legacy, and the
tremendous upsurge in interest in participative sport
that has been seen since 2012
nancial and business services where there are
opportunities to accommodate national headquarters
and also regional oces serving southern England:
Watord, St Albans, Cheshunt, Hemel Hempstead can all
claim notable businesses in this context
high-end logistics which is growing very quickly,
particularly in servicing London-based households and
businesses, and increasingly generates higher quality
jobs. With escalating uel prices, the comparative
advantage o Hertordshire is growing in relation to thissector.
1.2.3.
The risks
For Hertordshire, Londons growth is double-edged
and or many in the county, the pernicious creep o
London into Hertordshire is what they ear most.
This strategy recognises and understands these
concerns. But it is also ully alert to the tremendous
opportunities that Londons growth presents in relation
to Hertordshires own economic well-being: a big,
growing, and largely afuent market, right on the
doorstep.
We also need to recognise and respond to the act
that Londons inrastructural investments could benet
Hertordshire: plans or Crossrail 2, or example, includean option that could extend into Hertordshire. More
immediately, the Croxley Rail Link project is extending
the Metropolitan Line in the Watord area, and adding
two new stations. Through this strategy, we need
to channel these opportunities appropriately. In so
doing, we must avoid those elements that really are
not smart and ocus instead on the growth dynamic
that can add value, interest and opportunity to
Hertordshires businesses and workers alike.
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The strategic response
In responding to the opportunities linked more or
less closely to London, this strategy will ocus on vemain strands:
supporting the growth (in scale and profle)
o the flm and media sector, and doing so in
partnership with the LEPs with responsibility or
Buckinghamshire and London. This process will
itsel be multi-aceted, but it will need to include
an appropriate dialogue in relation to site-related
issues. It ought also to include some support or
local supply chain development although here
again, it must be recognised that the eectiveunctional geography may substantially extend to
the south and west o Hertordshire
encouraging the growth o sport, leisure and
cultural activities as key economic drivers. In this
context, we need to really exploit (or example) the
investment into white water rating in Broxbourne,
and the excellent location o Hertordshire in
relation to national centres o sport
working with local authorities to prioritise a ew
key sites that could become high quality business
parks (that would appeal to UK or European
headquarters) and make provision or some
value-added logistics (recognising that jobs within
logistics have been upskilled and Hertordshires
location is second to none)
ensuring that wider aspects o the strategic
transport inrastructure are aligned, as ar
as possible, with these opportunities and
imperatives; in this context, the Watord Junction
Interchange Redevelopment and the M1-MaylandsLink NE Relie Road (Hemel Hempstead) two o
the ve priorities identied by the Hertordshire
shadow Local Transport Body could be especially
important
working with relevant partners including the
LEPs with responsibility or Cambridgeshire,Essex and London to explore urther the
scope and potential o the LondonStansted
Cambridge (M11) Corridor. This Corridor is
a complete mix some major regeneration
issues, some buoyant economies, and Stansted
Airport. The Airport has recently seen a change
in ownership which could be a llip or economic
growth in its own right. The opportunities linked
to the M11 Corridor need to be explored and
partners in Hertordshire need to be part o this.
Consultation question 4: Our
second Priority relates to a groupo sectors which we think havesignifcant growth potential, given
our location close to London. Doyou agree that we ought positivelyto encourage these opportunities
so that more businesses can thrivein Hertordshire and so that more
o our residents can work locally?
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Priority 3Re-invigorating vibrant townsor the 21st Century
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The opportunity
With the transormative potential o high speed
broadband and a radical renegotiation o the
relationship between home and work, the geographyo economic lie is changing in subtle, but important,
ways.
Hertordshires rural areas ought to benet rom this,
and it will be important that appropriate broadband
provision is available.
But in relation to ambitious economic growth and
the Vision we have dened or ourselves there is a
particular opportunity or Hertordshires towns. In
advancing a smart growth agenda, high quality urbanenvironments are an increasing draw. The coce
or perhaps more ormal workhubs are becoming
increasingly important as workspaces, and in the
provision o both, town centres provide great potential.
Hertordshires town centres are, currently, very mixed.
Some such as St Albans and Berkhampsted are
thriving, with invaluable cultural and heritage assets;
a strong speciality retail oer; and a vibrant visitor
economy. Others notably Watord have a strong
retail oer (based currently around the Harlequin
Shopping Centre (now intu), but with potential to
be developed through Charter Place) and unction
as strong economic hubs, attracting shoppers and
workers rom across a geography that extends well
beyond Hertordshire.
Elsewhere, however, and particularly with regard to
the Phase 1 New Towns (Hateld, Hemel Hempstead,
and Stevenage), the urban abric is in urgent need o
regeneration; indeed, with surplus commercial and
retail space, some o the town centres are quite out o
kilter with the character and potential o Hertordshiremore generally. Yet most have mainline railway
stations and they ought to be regarded as a substantial
opportunity. Their economic roles and unctions need
to be re-dened and in the light o the growth o on-
line retailing, the mix o town centre uses may need to
be re-appraised.
More generally, though, there is a need and an
opportunity or a new spatial ramework or growth
in Hertordshire. Not everywhere can or should grow
in terms o its spatial ootprint, but some towns mustdo so. Hertordshire has a serious housing shortage
and the number o dwellings in the planning pipeline is
much reduced since the demise o the East o England
Plan: analysis completed through the reresh o the
Hertordshire Inrastructure Investment Strategy (2012)
concluded that there could be 22,000 ewer dwellings
coming orward over the period 2001-2031 than
previously planned.
The risks
Issues relating to Hertordshires spatial development
are likely to be among the most contentious and
we do understand why. The redevelopment o the
town centres including, potentially, some changes
o use should make a useul contribution in relation
to the housing decit; but it is unlikely to be enough.
Ignoring the issues will not make them go away; they
will just become progressively more challenging. The
risk is that the only people who can aord to live inHertordshire are those that work in central London;
and this is an outcome that we need to avoid.
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The strategic response
Our strategic response to this third Priority involves
working with local authorities to advance a new
vision or town centres with in many cases astrong live/work oer (through coces, work hubs
and incubator space, and including rst-rate wi-
connectivity) consistent with 21st century lie. It is
quite clear that the old models are broken and that
capacity is severely stretched. As a rst step within
this, we will work to ensure that employment land
allocations are realistic and where appropriate we
will support the conversion o redundant retail and
commercial buildings to residential uses. Beyond this,
we support the preparation and implementation o
town centre (and related) masterplans.
Although they dier rom each other, our initial
priorities are likely to be:
Hemel Hempstead which is one o Hertordshires
New Towns and today has a population o around
89,000. A Town Centre masterplan is in place (2012)
encompassing strategies or land use, access and
movement and quality environment. Whilst the Old
Town has an historic character, the town centre has
struggled and changes are needed
Stevenage which is another New Town and also
has a clear masterplan in place (prepared in 2010).
This sums up the challenges acing Stevenage as a
town centre that has a poor image, cannot provide
modern retailers with the exibility they need, does
not contain a thriving evening economy, oers only
a limited range o uses and seems detached rom its
community and a signifcant employment area on
its doorstep
Watord which is Hertordshires largest town.Watord has seen substantial investment and
growth over recent years but more needs to be
done, not least through proposed developments at
Charter Place and the west Watord regeneration
plans (with commercial, residential and health-
related components) linked to Watord Health
Campus
working with a range o providers to ensure
that Hertordshires towns (large and small) have
appropriate provision or enterprise. We needa network o managed incubator acilities both
general purpose and more specialised, all with
superast broadband to encourage enterprise
working with private sector providers and
local authorities to ensure that Hertordshire
leads the way as a smart county in terms
o its inrastructure or virtual and physical
communications. We want to see, or example,
smart ticketing at railway stations; and mobile
apps underpinning real-time trac and parking
management. All o this must be underpinned by
the highest quality broadband and we will take
steps to ensure that Hertordshires towns and its
rural areas are prioritised in the roll-out process
working with the local authorities to advance
our collective thinking in respect o a spatial
plan or Hertordshire. This must be consistent
with our aspirations and assets and indeed our
responsibilities with regard to smart economic
growth over the period to 2030. Elements o this
will be challenging, but some o our towns mustbe allowed to grow. The political geography o
Hertordshire (in terms o boundaries) means
that this cannot be achieved by individual local
authority districts in isolation. In many areas, we
are struggling to make progress in relation to Local
Plans which are now very out-o-date. We need a
reasoned and constructive dialogue to agree the
best way orward.
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Consultation question 5: Our third priority is ocused on Hertordshireas a place. Rural areas have a role to play, but i Hertordshires
economic perormance is to change, its towns need to become moreconfdent, distinctive and vibrant economic hubs; all o this must beenabled by the highest quality broadband and virtual connectivity.
Some towns already perorm well, but some need to see signifcantre-investment. Do you agree that or Hertordshire as a whole tothrive, this needs to be a priority?
Consultation question 6: Given the scale o resources likely to beavailable to the LEP, should we prioritise digital connectivity over
other possible inrastructure investment?
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Our Vision or the uture is one o smart growth.
This is challenging in terms o metrics and targets.
However, in headline terms, we want to see jobs that
are more productive and a business population that isincreasingly ambitious. The targets we have dened
or ourselves ollow recognising that to become
more productive (as individuals) and ambitious (as
businesses), we will also need better and smarter skills,
inrastructure, access to capital, etc.
GVA per job (and overall GVA)
One o our headline metrics is a key measure o
productivity: GVA per job. By improving productivity,
we will grow our economy overall.
Currently, GVA per job in Hertordshire is around
44k (based on data rom EEFM, 2012, at constant
2008 prices). It is projected to increase to 62k by
2030. Within Hertordshire, district level data suggest
that East Hertordshire and Stevenage will see the
slowest productivity growth (1.9% per annum) while
Broxbourne (2.3% per annum) will see the astest.
Compared to this baseline statement, our target is to
grow Hertordshires productivity perormance at
a rate o 2.5% per annum over the period to 2030.This is ambitious: it means achieving an overall rate
o growth in excess o that projected or the best
perorming district.
Compared to this baseline statement, our target is to
grow Hertordshires productivity perormance at a
rate o 2.5% per annum over the period to 2030. This is
ambitious: it means achieving an overall rate o growth
in excess o that projected or the best perorming
district.
I we achieve our productivity target, by 2030, output
per job across Hertordshire will have risen to 68k
(compared to a projected 62k). Assuming the number
o jobs grows as per the baseline projection8 (an
increase in total employment rom 588,000 to 687,000
jobs between 2012 and 2030), Hertordshires overall
GVA will have increased to 47bn (compared to the
currently projected 43bn).
Skills
Hertordshire perorms well on conventional
qualication-based skills measures, but we need tocontinue to improve. Our target is that by 2030, 85%
o our working age population will be qualifed to
NVQ2 or above and 53% will be qualifed to NVQ 4
(degree level) or above. I we achieve this, the whole
county will be perorming at the level o St Albans
district currently.
Business demography
Currently, there are around 50,000 businesses inHertordshire. The countys business demography is
unusual insoar as both micro-enterprises and large
rms are (relatively) over-represented while mid-size
rms (employing between 10 and 249 people) are
under-represented.
To achieve smart growth:
rates o new business ormation will continue to
be high: the rate o new business ormation (per
resident aged 16+) should continue to be at least
25% higher than the national average
more rms will grow to become larger SMEs (as
these tend to be the engines o growth): the
stock o mid-size enterprises should have grown
to at least 20% o the total by 2030 (currently it is
less than 10%)
Hertordshire will more inward investment: the
number o inward investment projects will
increase to 30 per annum (compared to the 15-20
secured over the last three years (according to UKTIdata).
Consultation question 7:Consistent with smart growth,
our quantifed targets ocus onproductivity, skills, enterpriseand investment. Do you agree
that these are the most importantmetrics in relation to the smart
growth o Hertordshires economythrough to 2030?
1. In practice, i productivity increases, wage levels are also likelyto rise and there will be local multiplier eects (with someimplications or local employment)
8.
What will success look like?
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Figure 4:
The immediate next steps in relation to our Strategy
or Smart Economic Growth are ocused around a
period o consultation with businesses and other
stakeholders and partners.
Specically, we want to talk through and explain
our Vision and the three Priorities underpinning it;
to understand the extent to which partners across
Hertordshire agree with it; and to esh out in more
detail the priority actions which ought to be taken in
response.
As part o this, we will be giving thought to
implementation arrangements and particularly the
opportunities and possibilities in relation to Local
Growth Deals (as per Budget 2013) and also the new EU
Programme the timeline o this process is indicated in
gure 4.
Government has oered a range o tools that ought
to be helpul in delivering our Strategy, but these are
premised on a something or something approach: iwe secure a high level o commitment to our Economic
Growth Strategy over the summer, we will be well-
placed to benet. This is our rm intention over the
months ahead.
Consultation question 8: We willdevelop an implementation plan
or our strategy over the summerand early autumn. How wouldyou/your organisation like to be
involved?
Consultation question 9: Do youhave any other comments on our
drat strategy or smart economicgrowth in Hertordshire?
Next Steps
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About this consultation:
Formally, we are consulting on this drat strategy rom 3rd June
2013 to 18th July 2013, and we would welcome your comments andeedback over this period.
The drat strategy is available on our website:
http://www.keysurvey.co.uk//520255/17ba/
A orm or consultation responses is available on the same webpage.
I you would like to speak to someone rom Hertordshire LEP, please
contact Ed Blackwell Communications Executive on the email addressprovided below;