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Perfectly placed for businessA Strategy for Smart Economic Growth in Hertfordshire,

2013-2030: Consultation Draft

June 2013

HertfordshireLocal Enterprise Partnership


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Introduction

At a glance

Hertfordshires economy today

Our Vision for Hertfordshire

Our Strategy for Smart Economic Growth in

Hertfordshire, 2013-2030Priority 1 -Nurturing science based Enterprise and

Innovation

Priority 2 - Harnessing our relationships with London

Priority 3 - Re-invigorating vibrant towns or the 21st

Century

What success will look like

Next steps

1

2

3

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10

11

14

17

21

22

Contents


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Against this backdrop, I am pleased to present the consultation drat o our Strategy or Smart EconomicGrowth in Hertordshire. I hope you will take the time to read and comment on it.

Hertordshire has had economic strategies beore. But I believe this one is dierent or three important reasons:

This strategy is ambitious, and it seeks to achieve smart growth,not growth at any cost which

none o us want. We live and work in Hertordshire as do our amilies and we are committed to

enhancing the quality o lie that Hertordshire provides

This strategy is about our businesses and our places, and it embraces a diferent kind o

thinking about Hertordshire.This means that challenges and solutions need to be advanced at

various scales sometimes more locally, and oten in discussion and dialogue with other LEPs. It alsocalls or a dierent kind o dialogue across Hertordshire, particularly between businesses and local

authorities: less conrontational, more reective and ar more ocused on the long term

This strategy is about us. Government has asked us to prepare a strategy or economic growth, but

beyond that, there are no centrally prescribed templates, targets or lines o accountability. Based on

evidence, our strategy thereore sets out what we believe needs to happen to secure the uture o our

businesses and our places.

Overall, in preparing this strategy, our Guiding Principle can be summarised simply: to grow smartly as a perect

place or business.

Over the next ew weeks, I am very keen to hear your thoughts on our drat strategy. I hope you might be able

to attend our stakeholder event in late June and also that you will spend a ew minutes completing our on-line

response orm [http://www.keysurvey.co.uk//520255/17ba/].

But we are also acutely aware that we need to progress quickly rom a high level strategy to a clear and

deliverable implementation plan. We will be working with partners on this over the summer months and

into the autumn as the basis o our something or something Local Growth Deal with Government. There is

much to do but also much to gain: the LEP Board is committed to working closely with partners to make rapid

progress.

Many thanks,

John GourdChair, Hertordshire LEP

June 2013

Introduction

Dear Colleagues,

This is an exciting time or businesses in Hertordshire. It is also a uniquely

important one. We benet rom a strong local economy and our economy could be

outstanding and as the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) or Hertordshire we are

committed to achieving this outcome.

The Coalition Government has tasked us and the other 38 LEPs across England

withdriving orward economic recovery. Following Lord Heseltines report, Budget

2013 made provision or the creation o a Single Local Growth Fund, devolved to the

local level through new Local Growth Deals. In addition, Ministers have committed

to devolving the majority o the 2014-2020 EU Structural and Investment Funds to

LEPs.


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At a glance

Hertordshires economy is perorming well compared to elsewhere but it is slipping back relatively. For the

benet o this and uture generations, we need to address this relative decline. Government has given us a

unique opportunity to respond but exactly how we respond is up to us.

Hertordshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) wants to pursue a strategy osmart growth. This is not growth

at any cost. Instead, it is growth based on knowledge and innovation, and which is concerned with promoting

a more resource ecient, greener and competitive economy.

We have identied our vision, that by 2030 Herordshire will be the leading economy at the heart o the

UKs golden triangle.

Our three priorities listed below will ensure we are able to take this vision orward. These represent major

opportunities or Hertordshire:

Nurturing science based Enterprise and Innovation

Harnessing our relationships with London

Re-invigorating vibrant towns or the 21st Century.

In addressing these three priorities, we will ensure that Hertordshire is Perectly Placed or Business.

Over the summer and in the early autumn, we will develop a detailed implementation plan in order to advance

to these Priorities, and to make them happen.

First however we would like to know whether you agree with our Vision and Priorities. Details o how to

respond to our consultation are available on our website.

Our consultation drat Strategy or Smart Economic Growth


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Hertordshireseconomy today


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Hertordshires Economy Today

Good

On most national benchmarks, Hertordshires economylooks good.

Recent analysis suggests that Hertordshire has

the ourth most resilient economy among 39 Local

Enterprise Partnership (LEP) areas in England; and

on this composite assessment, it scores particularly

strongly with regard to its people1.

On the headline indicator o economic well-being

gross value added per capita it is ranked ourth

among LEP areas. Moreover, employment rates arerelatively high; unemployment rates are generally low;

and on qualication-based metrics, Hertordshires skills

base is outstanding.

So Hertordshire certainly does have a good local

economy. It also has a relatively large one: around

50,000 businesses2 collectively generate GVA3 to

the value o 26bn, and within the county there are

currently in the order o 600,000 jobs.

but not great

But dig beneath the surace and the picture is less

sanguine. Evidence suggests that the countys

apparently strong perormance is, essentially, an historic

legacy and a result o growth in the mid- to late-1990s

at which point its growth trajectory was spectacular.

Subsequently, the overall narrative has been mediocre.

It is, or example, telling that between 2006/07 and

2011/12, the stock o commercial oorspace (B Use

Class) within Hertordshire declined by almost 100,000sq m.

1. Understanding Resilience: Local EnterprisePartnerships,Experian, January 2012

2. Estimates o the size o the business population are raught.Technically, in 2011, Hertordshire had about 46,000 VAT and/

or PAYE-registered enterprises but 54,000 VAT and/or PAYE-registered units

3. GVA is Gross Value Added essentially the dierence betweeninput costs and output prices

4. Hertordshires Economic Outlook, 2011, Hertordshire CountyCouncil, October 2011

Analysis suggests that4:

Hertordshires growth perormance in terms

o economic output since 2001 has been

overshadowed by that o its neighbours,

particularly London and Cambridgeshire

Jobs growth in Hertordshire has been modest

in recent years: even beore the recession, some

districts saw an overall decline in private sector

employment

Hertordshires growth model has been dierent

rom that in London. The latter has combined

high GVA growth with low employment growth

(by losing lower productivity jobs to lower cost

destinations and replacing them by higher

productivity jobs).

The consequence has been that in relative terms,

Hertordshire has slipped. As the chart overlea

demonstrates, Hertordshire has seen only modest

growth o GVA per head since the late 1990s. On this

metric, its rate o growth has been similar to that o

the Tees Valley and York and North Yorkshire LEP areas;

it has been well below that o its near neighbours

(London, Greater Cambridge-Greater Peterborough,

Buckinghamshire Thames Valley, etc.).

The latest available data suggest that the median gross

weekly earnings o Hertordshires ull time employees

are notably higher on residence (597) than workplace-

based (539) measures. Patterns o commuting explain

the dierence. At the time o the 2001 Census, some20% o resident workers commuted to the capital, but

successive

County Travel Surveys have provided higher estimates

24% (in 2002) and 25% (in 2009). The ndings rom

the 2011 Census are awaited.


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Figure 1: Comparing LEP area economies

The result is that Hertordshires economy is under

some pressure. House prices are very high indeed

certainly in relation to what those employed locally can

aord to pay. In January 2013, the average price o a

house in Hertordshire was over 240,000: almost 50%

higher than the average or England and Wales and

100% higher than the average price in Hertordshire

at the start o the new millennium. Locally, the guresare more extreme: data rom Hometrack, or example,

suggest that between 2004 and 2012, the average price

o a house in St Albans (district) rose rom 288,500 to

421,000, while in neighbouring Watord, the increment

was more modest (rom 202,000 to 254,000)5.

The evidence, then, suggests a progressive hollowing

out o the economic base. There is no immediate

crisis but the clear direction o travel is troubling; it is

this that Hertordshire LEP is determined to remedy.

1.

2.3.4.5. Data taken rom St Albans City and District Council Monitoring

Report, April 2011-March 2012

major opportunities

Hertordshire has a tremendous endowment which

ought to provide a oundation or uture economic

growth. Uppermost within this is a working age

population o whom over 40% are qualied to degree

level or above.

The county is home to some leading edge knowledge-

based businesses. Specically, GlaxoSmithKline has a

signicant Hertordshire presence (pharmaceuticals), as

does EADS Astrium (satellites and space), Imagination

Technologies (multimedia and communication

technologies) and Johnson Matthey (speciality

chemicals). More generally, over 50% o Hertordshires

businesses are knowledge intensive a gure that is

ten percentage points higher than the UK average.

In addition, through Rothampsted Research, the county

has research expertise in plant-based bioscience;

through BRE, it is leading the way in sustainable

construction; and through Clare Hall, it has a majormedical research acility.

But what sets Hertordshire apart is its location at the

geographical heart o the UKs Golden Triangle. This

links London in the south with Oxord to the west

and Cambridge to the east. Inside this geography is

a very signicant proportion o the UKs current and

prospective uture knowledge-based intellectual

assets and horsepower: Hertordshire is at its

geographical core.


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Figure 2: Hertordshires strategic location at the heart o the Golden Triangle


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On most national benchmarks, Hertordshires economy looks good.

More generally, Hertordshire abuts a genuine world city and one which is growing very quickly. A report produced

recently by GLA Economics suggests that between 1997 and 2010, Londons share o headline GVA in nancial and

insurance activities rose rom 41% to 47% o the UK total, while that in proessional, scientic and technical activities

increased rom 32% to 36%6.

Hertordshire is also superbly located in relation to the rest o the UK. Both the east and west coast mainline rail

services pass through the county, and radial motorway routes rom London and o relevance to Hertordshire

include the M1 (to Milton Keynes and Leeds) , A1(m) (to Peterborough and York) and M11 (to Cambridge).

Looking ahead

This strategy is about our uture. In this context, we have to take note o wider trends and drivers, many o which are

not unique to Hertordshire but all o which will impact on our businesses, and the people who live and/or work here.

Some o the principal Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political (STEEP) trends and drivers that

have inormed our strategy are summarised in Figure 3 above.

Figure 3: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political trends and drivers that are likely to

shape Hertordshires economic uture

Consultation question 1: Theevidence points to a Hertordshire

economy that whilst still strong isslipping relative to its neighbours.Is this a picture that concerns you?

1.2.3.4.5.

6. Regional, sub-regional and local gross value added estimatesor London, 1997-2011 Melissa Wickham (January 2013): GLAEconomics, Current Issues Note 39


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Our Vision orHertordshire


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Our Vision is that by 2030 Herordshire will be the

leading economy at the heart o the UKs golden

triangle. Over the next two decades, Hertordshire willembrace a new agenda or economic growth that is at

once smart, sustainable and positive.

Smart growth is not growth at any cost. Instead,

it is growth which is premised on knowledge and

innovation, and which is concerned with promoting

a more resource ecient, greener and competitive

economy. Through smart growth, people and

businesses in Hertordshire should, genuinely, thrive.

Nurturing science based Enterprise andInnovation

By 2030, we want Hertordshire to be well established

as the leading economy at the heart o the UKs Golden

Triangle. We want it to be a catalyst or the production

and creative synthesis o ideas and insights across the

great technologies that are likely to shape the UKs

economic uture. Among these, this could mean a

particular role or Hertordshires businesses in relation

to:

satellites and commercial applications o space

lie sciences, genomics and synthetic biology

regenerative medicine

agri-science

the big data revolution and energy-ecient

computing.

Across all these domains, Hertordshire has signicant

assets already and enormous urther potential. Used

smartly, we need to make all this count.

Within this overall context, Hertordshire will be a place

where entrepreneurship is encouraged; where new

enterprises can orm; and where established ones

can grow. Moreover it will be a place where inward

investment is actively encouraged,

particularly when it contributes positively to

knowledge-based economic growth.

Businesses will be able to recruit the people they need

or R&D, or production, or the management and

commercialisation o both.

Harnessing our relationships with London

Whilst distinctive, Hertordshire will enjoy a condent

and synergistic relationship with London: it will

recognise and support the unctional growth o

London as a world city, and it will steer its own

economic growth aspirations purposely and in

response.

This will mean that it will pay particular attention to the

growth o our sectors:

lm and media

sport, leisure and cultural activities

nancial and business services high-end logistics.

Re-invigorating vibrant towns or the 21st

Century

In achieving its Vision and very much as part o it

we will embrace a new approach to our own spatial

development. Our towns will be re-energised as vibrant

urban economic hubs (with dierent solutions in

dierent places). In addition, some o our towns mustbe allowed to grow.

At the same time our high quality rural and urban

environments must be conserved.

The whole growth process will be smarter than

previously less conrontational, more reective and

galvanised by a genuine and shared commitment to

securing the uture o Hertordshire or both current

and uture generations o residents, workers and

businesses.

Our Vision or Hertordshire

Consultation question 2:

Our Vision or the uture oHertordshires economy is

ocused on smart, but ambitious,growth. Do you share ourVision?


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Our Strategy or Smart Economic Growth in

Hertordshire, 2013-2030


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Priority 1Nurturing science based

Enterprise and Innovation


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The opportunity

Hertordshires science-based knowledge economy is

extensive and diverse, and it is long established back

in the 1980s, it had an employment location quotient

o 3.6 (relative to GB)7

Today it includes many dierent strands, all o which are

private sector-led. For example:

lie sciences, which is dominated by large

pharmaceutical operations such as GSK, Eisai and

Merck Sharp & Dohme accounts or around 30,000

employee jobs

advanced engineering, including deence and

aerospace companies such as Smith Detection andEADS Astrium, and accounting or about 21,600

employee jobs

sotware, ICT and telecoms services, including

equipment producers and communications

integrators, such as Imagination Technologies

(Watord), which accounts or some 15,000 jobs,

principally in the west o Hertordshire.

Research-based assets within Hertordshire are also rst

rate. They include, inter alia, Rothampsted Research(agri-science) and BRE (sustainable construction)

The University o Hertordshire also has important

supporting specialisms.

The strengths, then, are substantial. In theory at least,

Hertordshire should have the wherewithal to exploit

them. It can point to a highly qualied workorce,

but also to people who are willing to work in the

supporting occupations on which many science-

based activities depend. There are also a number o

employment sites and premises that are close to the

main centres o the knowledge economy and these

ought to provide an important physical inrastructure.

Most importantly, it has a knowledge economy which

is genuinely led by the private sector.

1.2.3.4.5.

6.7. Location quotients are a measure o relative concentration a LQ o 1.0 denotes the same level o concentration as theaverage; 3.6 suggests a level o concentration which is overthree times higher

These assets are all the more potent in the context o

major investments in UK science which are being made

currently in both London and Cambridge.

In terms o the ormer, the Francis Crick Institute is

currently under construction. A partnership between

the Medical Research Council (MRC), Cancer Research

UK, the Wellcome Trust, UCL (University College

London), Imperial College London and Kings College

London, the Institute will employ over 1,000 scientists

at its site near Kings Cross and St Pancras.

Cambridge, meanwhile, has seen substantial recent and

on-going investment into the Cambridge Biomedical

Campus on the site o Addenbrookes Hospital. Inaddition, the decision o Astra Zeneca to relocate its

European R&D operations to Cambridge represents a

major investment.

Within Hertordshire and across the wider Golden

Triangle there is a world class asset base, which

is receiving urther investment: this represents a

huge opportunity or knowledge-based growth.

Hertordshire has the potential to become the private

sector-led core o this process.


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The risks

The scale o the opportunity is substantial, and the links

between Cambridge and London, and between Oxord

and London are strong, powerul and productive.

However in the process, there is a risk that Hertordshirecould simply be by-passed: Cambridge, in particular,

has ambitious growth plans and it has substantial

provision in the orm o well-located and high quality

science and business parks; a strong labour market

(particularly or bioscience); and a track record in

delivering the inrastructure that is needed to sustain

economic growth.

By contrast, Hertordshires recent track record in

securing inward investment has been mediocre

and its current oer in relation to the knowledge

economy is patchy. Among businesses in the county,there seems to be genuine uncertainty as to whether

Hertordshire as a whole really has the appetite to

respond. In addition, there is recognition that networks

and collaborations within Hertordshire are quite weak.

Linkages are very important, but these are requently

global. Against this backdrop, Hertordshire as a

brand, a location and an organising device needs to

be positioned judiciously.

Finally, across knowledge-based rms in general and

those in bioscience in particular there are currentlymajor challenges in relation to early stage nancing.

Promising businesses are struggling to secure the

capital they need to invest and grow. This problem

is by no means restricted to Hertordshire but it is a

major challenge looking ahead.

continuing to develop and support the principal

bioscience acilities within Hertordshire,

particularly BioPark (Welwyn Garden City) and

the GSK Biosicience Catalyst (Stevenage). In the

uture Watord Health Campus may also play a role.

More generally, it will be crucial that Hertordshire

provides the sites and premises demanded by

bioscience (and related) rms; only in this way willthe Golden Triangle have traction

engaging in a creative dialogue with the

bioscience community across the Golden

Triangle involving, One-Nucleus, OBN, UKTI

and the LEPs with responsibility or Cambridge,

London, and Oxordshire; this dialogue ought to

ocus, in particular, on inward investment and

the challenges o nancing early-stage business

growth. With regard to the latter, there is a need

to explore the scope to establish investment undsto address the equity gap acing bioscience (and

related) businesses across the Golden Triangle

actively ostering the growth o knowledge-

based businesses, including through the Growth

Hub (set up by the University o Hertordshire and

Hertordshire County Council) at Biopark

ensuring that Hertordshires wider physical

inrastructure is attuned to the opportunities

or economic growth at the core o the GoldenTriangle. Priorities will include the upgrading

o well-located strategic employment sites (e.g.

Gunnels Wood); and critical elements o the

strategic road inrastructure (e.g. A1(m) rom

Junction 6 to 8)

working with Hertordshires FE Colleges, key

businesses, and the University o Hertordshire

to support workorce development through

training provision and knowledge transer,

particularly in advanced manuacturing/

engineering and IT; apprenticeship programmes

will orm a key part o the response.

The strategic response

There are tremendous opportunities or Hertordshire

as the private sector core o Golden Triangle. However

these are not easy wins: realising them will require a

concerted and committed response.

This response is likely to include:

supporting the development o the Rothampsted

Enterprise and Research Centre, recognising its

potential (which longer term, could orm the core

o a more ambitious agri-science park) in relation to

one o the governments eight great technologies,

and also alongside BRE Group its role vis--visenvironmental/green technologies

Consultation question 3: Doyou agree that nurturing science

based Enterprise and Innovation(through better access tofnance, improved collaboration

and promotion, targetedinrastructural investment, etc.)should be a priority?


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Priority 2Harnessing our relationshipswith London


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The opportunity

London has experienced tremendous growth over the last

two decades, including throughout the recent recession.

Londons share o the UKs population, employment andoutput has risen rapidly, and international investment

particularly into property has been phenomenal.

Precipitated in part by the 2012 Olympic/Paralympic Games,

London has also seen substantial inrastructure investment

and more is planned/underway not least Crossrail

and HS2. Notwithstanding the nancial crisis and the

implications or the City o London the extraordinary

growth o London as a rst division world city seems set

to continue. Over recent months, or example, Google

has completed a 1bn property deal to move its UK

headquarters to a browneld site in the Kings Cross area:the seven and 11 storey complex is due or completion in

2016.

Developments in London are creating major opportunities

or adjacent areas, not least Hertordshire. These include

economic activities that are, eectively, priced out o central

London; activities that are providing services to Londons

burgeoning population; and any activities which at root

require space.

Four sectors appear to bring particular opportunities or

Hertordshire within this context:

lm and media noting that Hertordshire has world

class assets in the orm o Leavesden (home o Warner

Bros) and Elstree, and that it can also oer a wide range

o lming locations

sport, leisure and cultural activities recognising, in

particular, the ootprint o the 2012 legacy, and the

tremendous upsurge in interest in participative sport

that has been seen since 2012

nancial and business services where there are

opportunities to accommodate national headquarters

and also regional oces serving southern England:

Watord, St Albans, Cheshunt, Hemel Hempstead can all

claim notable businesses in this context

high-end logistics which is growing very quickly,

particularly in servicing London-based households and

businesses, and increasingly generates higher quality

jobs. With escalating uel prices, the comparative

advantage o Hertordshire is growing in relation to thissector.

1.2.3.

The risks

For Hertordshire, Londons growth is double-edged

and or many in the county, the pernicious creep o

London into Hertordshire is what they ear most.

This strategy recognises and understands these

concerns. But it is also ully alert to the tremendous

opportunities that Londons growth presents in relation

to Hertordshires own economic well-being: a big,

growing, and largely afuent market, right on the

doorstep.

We also need to recognise and respond to the act

that Londons inrastructural investments could benet

Hertordshire: plans or Crossrail 2, or example, includean option that could extend into Hertordshire. More

immediately, the Croxley Rail Link project is extending

the Metropolitan Line in the Watord area, and adding

two new stations. Through this strategy, we need

to channel these opportunities appropriately. In so

doing, we must avoid those elements that really are

not smart and ocus instead on the growth dynamic

that can add value, interest and opportunity to

Hertordshires businesses and workers alike.


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In responding to the opportunities linked more or

less closely to London, this strategy will ocus on vemain strands:

supporting the growth (in scale and profle)

o the flm and media sector, and doing so in

partnership with the LEPs with responsibility or

Buckinghamshire and London. This process will

itsel be multi-aceted, but it will need to include

an appropriate dialogue in relation to site-related

issues. It ought also to include some support or

local supply chain development although here

again, it must be recognised that the eectiveunctional geography may substantially extend to

the south and west o Hertordshire

encouraging the growth o sport, leisure and

cultural activities as key economic drivers. In this

context, we need to really exploit (or example) the

investment into white water rating in Broxbourne,

and the excellent location o Hertordshire in

relation to national centres o sport

working with local authorities to prioritise a ew

key sites that could become high quality business

parks (that would appeal to UK or European

headquarters) and make provision or some

value-added logistics (recognising that jobs within

logistics have been upskilled and Hertordshires

location is second to none)

ensuring that wider aspects o the strategic

transport inrastructure are aligned, as ar

as possible, with these opportunities and

imperatives; in this context, the Watord Junction

Interchange Redevelopment and the M1-MaylandsLink NE Relie Road (Hemel Hempstead) two o

the ve priorities identied by the Hertordshire

shadow Local Transport Body could be especially

important

working with relevant partners including the

LEPs with responsibility or Cambridgeshire,Essex and London to explore urther the

scope and potential o the LondonStansted

Cambridge (M11) Corridor. This Corridor is

a complete mix some major regeneration

issues, some buoyant economies, and Stansted

Airport. The Airport has recently seen a change

in ownership which could be a llip or economic

growth in its own right. The opportunities linked

to the M11 Corridor need to be explored and

partners in Hertordshire need to be part o this.

Consultation question 4: Our

second Priority relates to a groupo sectors which we think havesignifcant growth potential, given

our location close to London. Doyou agree that we ought positivelyto encourage these opportunities

so that more businesses can thrivein Hertordshire and so that more

o our residents can work locally?


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Priority 3Re-invigorating vibrant townsor the 21st Century


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The opportunity

With the transormative potential o high speed

broadband and a radical renegotiation o the

relationship between home and work, the geographyo economic lie is changing in subtle, but important,

ways.

Hertordshires rural areas ought to benet rom this,

and it will be important that appropriate broadband

provision is available.

But in relation to ambitious economic growth and

the Vision we have dened or ourselves there is a

particular opportunity or Hertordshires towns. In

advancing a smart growth agenda, high quality urbanenvironments are an increasing draw. The coce

or perhaps more ormal workhubs are becoming

increasingly important as workspaces, and in the

provision o both, town centres provide great potential.

Hertordshires town centres are, currently, very mixed.

Some such as St Albans and Berkhampsted are

thriving, with invaluable cultural and heritage assets;

a strong speciality retail oer; and a vibrant visitor

economy. Others notably Watord have a strong

retail oer (based currently around the Harlequin

Shopping Centre (now intu), but with potential to

be developed through Charter Place) and unction

as strong economic hubs, attracting shoppers and

workers rom across a geography that extends well

beyond Hertordshire.

Elsewhere, however, and particularly with regard to

the Phase 1 New Towns (Hateld, Hemel Hempstead,

and Stevenage), the urban abric is in urgent need o

regeneration; indeed, with surplus commercial and

retail space, some o the town centres are quite out o

kilter with the character and potential o Hertordshiremore generally. Yet most have mainline railway

stations and they ought to be regarded as a substantial

opportunity. Their economic roles and unctions need

to be re-dened and in the light o the growth o on-

line retailing, the mix o town centre uses may need to

be re-appraised.

More generally, though, there is a need and an

opportunity or a new spatial ramework or growth

in Hertordshire. Not everywhere can or should grow

in terms o its spatial ootprint, but some towns mustdo so. Hertordshire has a serious housing shortage

and the number o dwellings in the planning pipeline is

much reduced since the demise o the East o England

Plan: analysis completed through the reresh o the

Hertordshire Inrastructure Investment Strategy (2012)

concluded that there could be 22,000 ewer dwellings

coming orward over the period 2001-2031 than

previously planned.

The risks

Issues relating to Hertordshires spatial development

are likely to be among the most contentious and

we do understand why. The redevelopment o the

town centres including, potentially, some changes

o use should make a useul contribution in relation

to the housing decit; but it is unlikely to be enough.

Ignoring the issues will not make them go away; they

will just become progressively more challenging. The

risk is that the only people who can aord to live inHertordshire are those that work in central London;

and this is an outcome that we need to avoid.


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Our strategic response to this third Priority involves

working with local authorities to advance a new

vision or town centres with in many cases astrong live/work oer (through coces, work hubs

and incubator space, and including rst-rate wi-

connectivity) consistent with 21st century lie. It is

quite clear that the old models are broken and that

capacity is severely stretched. As a rst step within

this, we will work to ensure that employment land

allocations are realistic and where appropriate we

will support the conversion o redundant retail and

commercial buildings to residential uses. Beyond this,

we support the preparation and implementation o

town centre (and related) masterplans.

Although they dier rom each other, our initial

priorities are likely to be:

Hemel Hempstead which is one o Hertordshires

New Towns and today has a population o around

89,000. A Town Centre masterplan is in place (2012)

encompassing strategies or land use, access and

movement and quality environment. Whilst the Old

Town has an historic character, the town centre has

struggled and changes are needed

Stevenage which is another New Town and also

has a clear masterplan in place (prepared in 2010).

This sums up the challenges acing Stevenage as a

town centre that has a poor image, cannot provide

modern retailers with the exibility they need, does

not contain a thriving evening economy, oers only

a limited range o uses and seems detached rom its

community and a signifcant employment area on

its doorstep

Watord which is Hertordshires largest town.Watord has seen substantial investment and

growth over recent years but more needs to be

done, not least through proposed developments at

Charter Place and the west Watord regeneration

plans (with commercial, residential and health-

related components) linked to Watord Health

Campus

working with a range o providers to ensure

that Hertordshires towns (large and small) have

appropriate provision or enterprise. We needa network o managed incubator acilities both

general purpose and more specialised, all with

superast broadband to encourage enterprise

working with private sector providers and

local authorities to ensure that Hertordshire

leads the way as a smart county in terms

o its inrastructure or virtual and physical

communications. We want to see, or example,

smart ticketing at railway stations; and mobile

apps underpinning real-time trac and parking

management. All o this must be underpinned by

the highest quality broadband and we will take

steps to ensure that Hertordshires towns and its

rural areas are prioritised in the roll-out process

working with the local authorities to advance

our collective thinking in respect o a spatial

plan or Hertordshire. This must be consistent

with our aspirations and assets and indeed our

responsibilities with regard to smart economic

growth over the period to 2030. Elements o this

will be challenging, but some o our towns mustbe allowed to grow. The political geography o

Hertordshire (in terms o boundaries) means

that this cannot be achieved by individual local

authority districts in isolation. In many areas, we

are struggling to make progress in relation to Local

Plans which are now very out-o-date. We need a

reasoned and constructive dialogue to agree the

best way orward.


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Consultation question 5: Our third priority is ocused on Hertordshireas a place. Rural areas have a role to play, but i Hertordshires

economic perormance is to change, its towns need to become moreconfdent, distinctive and vibrant economic hubs; all o this must beenabled by the highest quality broadband and virtual connectivity.

Some towns already perorm well, but some need to see signifcantre-investment. Do you agree that or Hertordshire as a whole tothrive, this needs to be a priority?

Consultation question 6: Given the scale o resources likely to beavailable to the LEP, should we prioritise digital connectivity over

other possible inrastructure investment?


23/2521

Our Vision or the uture is one o smart growth.

This is challenging in terms o metrics and targets.

However, in headline terms, we want to see jobs that

are more productive and a business population that isincreasingly ambitious. The targets we have dened

or ourselves ollow recognising that to become

more productive (as individuals) and ambitious (as

businesses), we will also need better and smarter skills,

inrastructure, access to capital, etc.

GVA per job (and overall GVA)

One o our headline metrics is a key measure o

productivity: GVA per job. By improving productivity,

we will grow our economy overall.

Currently, GVA per job in Hertordshire is around

44k (based on data rom EEFM, 2012, at constant

2008 prices). It is projected to increase to 62k by

2030. Within Hertordshire, district level data suggest

that East Hertordshire and Stevenage will see the

slowest productivity growth (1.9% per annum) while

Broxbourne (2.3% per annum) will see the astest.

Compared to this baseline statement, our target is to

grow Hertordshires productivity perormance at

a rate o 2.5% per annum over the period to 2030.This is ambitious: it means achieving an overall rate

o growth in excess o that projected or the best

perorming district.

Compared to this baseline statement, our target is to

grow Hertordshires productivity perormance at a

rate o 2.5% per annum over the period to 2030. This is

ambitious: it means achieving an overall rate o growth

in excess o that projected or the best perorming

district.

I we achieve our productivity target, by 2030, output

per job across Hertordshire will have risen to 68k

(compared to a projected 62k). Assuming the number

o jobs grows as per the baseline projection8 (an

increase in total employment rom 588,000 to 687,000

jobs between 2012 and 2030), Hertordshires overall

GVA will have increased to 47bn (compared to the

currently projected 43bn).

Skills

Hertordshire perorms well on conventional

qualication-based skills measures, but we need tocontinue to improve. Our target is that by 2030, 85%

o our working age population will be qualifed to

NVQ2 or above and 53% will be qualifed to NVQ 4

(degree level) or above. I we achieve this, the whole

county will be perorming at the level o St Albans

district currently.

Business demography

Currently, there are around 50,000 businesses inHertordshire. The countys business demography is

unusual insoar as both micro-enterprises and large

rms are (relatively) over-represented while mid-size

rms (employing between 10 and 249 people) are

under-represented.

To achieve smart growth:

rates o new business ormation will continue to

be high: the rate o new business ormation (per

resident aged 16+) should continue to be at least

25% higher than the national average

more rms will grow to become larger SMEs (as

these tend to be the engines o growth): the

stock o mid-size enterprises should have grown

to at least 20% o the total by 2030 (currently it is

less than 10%)

Hertordshire will more inward investment: the

number o inward investment projects will

increase to 30 per annum (compared to the 15-20

secured over the last three years (according to UKTIdata).

Consultation question 7:Consistent with smart growth,

our quantifed targets ocus onproductivity, skills, enterpriseand investment. Do you agree

that these are the most importantmetrics in relation to the smart

growth o Hertordshires economythrough to 2030?

1. In practice, i productivity increases, wage levels are also likelyto rise and there will be local multiplier eects (with someimplications or local employment)

8.

What will success look like?


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Figure 4:

The immediate next steps in relation to our Strategy

or Smart Economic Growth are ocused around a

period o consultation with businesses and other

stakeholders and partners.

Specically, we want to talk through and explain

our Vision and the three Priorities underpinning it;

to understand the extent to which partners across

Hertordshire agree with it; and to esh out in more

detail the priority actions which ought to be taken in

response.

As part o this, we will be giving thought to

implementation arrangements and particularly the

opportunities and possibilities in relation to Local

Growth Deals (as per Budget 2013) and also the new EU

Programme the timeline o this process is indicated in

gure 4.

Government has oered a range o tools that ought

to be helpul in delivering our Strategy, but these are

premised on a something or something approach: iwe secure a high level o commitment to our Economic

Growth Strategy over the summer, we will be well-

placed to benet. This is our rm intention over the

months ahead.

Consultation question 8: We willdevelop an implementation plan

or our strategy over the summerand early autumn. How wouldyou/your organisation like to be

involved?

Consultation question 9: Do youhave any other comments on our

drat strategy or smart economicgrowth in Hertordshire?

Next Steps


25/25

About this consultation:

Formally, we are consulting on this drat strategy rom 3rd June

2013 to 18th July 2013, and we would welcome your comments andeedback over this period.

The drat strategy is available on our website:

http://www.keysurvey.co.uk//520255/17ba/

A orm or consultation responses is available on the same webpage.

I you would like to speak to someone rom Hertordshire LEP, please

contact Ed Blackwell Communications Executive on the email addressprovided below;

[email protected]

plan for growth-consultation (1)

Documents