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FISCAL
ANALYSIS
INITIATIVE
A YEAR OR MORE:The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT
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FISCAL
ANALYSIS
INITIATIVE
Pew Charitable trusts
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April 2010
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1 exeCutive summary
2 introDuCtion
2 overview oF Current unemPloymentanD lonG-term unemPloyment
FiGure 1: lg-t up, J 1948mc 2010
5 CharaCteristiCs oF the lonG-term unemPloyeD
FiGure 2: o up r, ag
FiGure 3: upd f o y m, agFiGure 4: upd f o y m, ag
FiGure 5: o up r, edc
FiGure 6: upd f o y m, edc
FiGure 7: upd f o y m, edc
7 the FisCal imPaCt oF lonG-term unemPloyment
FiGure 8: Fd spdg up bf,
Cobra d snaP, 20072010
10 the Possible PersistenCeoF lonG-term unemPloyment
FiGure9: r f up, J 1967mc2010
11 summary anD ConClusions
12 aPPenDix tables
table 1: up ag
table 2: up edc
table 3: up id
table 4: up occp
16 notes
C O N T E N T S :
A YEAR OR MORE:The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT
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exeCutive summaryT dal vt dfi l-t ult a a jbl
d x t l. i mac 2010, v 44 ct uld
Aca t xcdd tat tadadt t at c Wld Wa ii.1
i ctat, du t v c t al 1980, t cta
wk uld x t l akd at 26 ct 1983.2
T da av td t tcall x-t ult fiu,
but a w tud b t pw fcal Aal itatv ut b calculat t
cta l w av b uld a a . T aal
ut lluat t xtt t cut l-t ult bl
ad t act t at fical cdt.
Accd t pw aal Cut pulat suv (Cps) data Dcb 2009, 23 ct t al 15 ll Acaw a uld av b jbl a a .3 Tat ctatalat t 3.4 ll l, ul quvalt t t ulat t tat Cctcut.
L-tult cut ac al v dut ad ccuat.ev fild wt vall ult at tat alatvl lw,wkw a uld a a a l t.
L-t ult ccu a l all a. Wlwk 55 ld a l lkl t bc uld, t w da lkl t ta uld a l d t. nal 30ct uld l 55 ld av b jbl a a la at ta a t a u.4
oc a ut wk, a lvl ducat vd l ltdtct aat a l d ult. Twt- ct uld wk wt a bacl d av b wtut wk a a l, cad t 27ct uld claduatad 23 ct uld cl d-ut.5
i t cut fical a, dal d ult bfit jctd t b fiv t at ta t wa ac t a datlcd t c. i ac fical a btw 2005 ad 2007, aualdal d ult uac ad btw $31 ad$33 bll.6 fdal d ult bfit culd ac$168 bll fical a 2010, wc $81 bll t d ulabfit. Ta$87bllt tct addtalult ad tat C a avd ( d t av)t l l w av b ut wk x t l.7
A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
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introDuCtion
A at l-t ult a ficat lcat al,
vt budt ad t cut vall cc ad cal alt.
f dvdual, t lkld fid a jb dcl a t lt ult
ca. pl w a uld a l t ca l t jb kll. A l
ult ll ca ak t a udabl, ak t dfficult t ctaat t jb caddat.8 Cps data ut tat wk w a jbl t
lt duat cu t lat duct wkl a u tu t wk.9
L-t ult al a ad a ficat act t dal budt.
T l t ll l w a tuck t ult ll, C
a avd xtd ult bfit bd t al 26-wk lt.
T xt ct al $44 bll fical a 2009 al.10 T dal
vt al a cad d atac ad ad a at a
alt-ca cva t w av b wtut wk a l t.
sc l a l c tax w t a ut wk, l-t
ult al a ducd dal vu. f t c a a wl,
ult cd wt lt utut: W lab udutlzd,
t at duc w d ad vc ta t caabl duc.
i t cut cv llw t att t b t lat tw, wll a
lu t. Jb l ctud al tw a at t 2001
dwtu, ad vall lt ub dd t tu t -c
utl 2005. T Cal Budt offic (CBo) jct tat t ult
at wll a abv 9 ct tu 2011 ad tat t at wll t dcl t
5 ctt -calld atual at ultutl 2016.11
pw vtat t ulat t affctd b l-t ult tu
a w l b lk at wk w av b uld a a ad
valuat t fical ad cc ffct.
overview oF Current unemPloymentanD lonG-term unemPloyment
T Utd stat t dt t wt d ult c
t d t Wld Wa ii. T ult at du t c akd
at 10.1 ct octb 2009, al ac t t-wa cd 10.8 ct
t Dcb 1982.12 Accd t t Buau Lab stattc (BLs), t vall
ult at wa 9.7 ct mac 2010. T a t w abut
15 ll l w w actvl ac lt but w uuccul.13
i fbua 2010, 13 tat ad t Dtct Cluba ad a ult at
ta 10 ct, ad x tat (Cala, flda, mca, nvada,
rd ilad, ad sut Cala) ad a at at lat 12 ct.14
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
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T fiu d t catu t ull c t bl, c t d t clud
l w bca dcuad ad td k lt, l w
dcdd t t al at ta k ac ad u l w av dlad
t t t t wk c. T fiu al xclud l w wuld
ull-t lt but av b cd t acct at-t wktad. W
t wk a cutd t calculat, t ult at mac 2010
bc 16.9 ct.15 T cl kw a t udlt at.
i t atat t 2001 c, t caabl at akd at 10.4 ct.16
f t tat t c tu Ju 2009w lt td
ctact alall lt ll b 6.4 ll.17 T cuulatv
dcl 5.2 ct du t d t tt d x dcad.18
i addt t t lvl vall ult, t c a b
caactzd b t l d t tat a l av ad t
ult ll. T dal vt dfi l-t ult
a a jbl d x t l. i mac 2010, v 44 ct
uld Aca t xcdd tat tadadt t at c Wld
Wa ii.19 i ctat, du t v c t al 1980, t cta
wk uld x t l akd at 26 ct 1983.20
T l-t ult at t t ctuat a dcad-
l td, tat a wd at dwtu but a td v du
d wt. i mac 2004, at t t ct ak, t cta l
w ad b uld at lat x t wa 23.4 ct. i nvb
2007, t lat t cc xa b t cut c, 19.5
ct t uld ad b jbl at lat x t ( fu 1).21
pw aalutlluat t blbcalculat tcta lwav b uld a a . i Dcb 2009, al t ad a al
ll Aca, 23 ct t uld, ad b jbl a a l.22
A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
3
FiGure 1: lg-t up, J 1948mc 2010Percentage of Total Unemployed
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Current Population SurveyNotes: Six-month numbers are seasonally adjusted; one-year numbers are not seasonally adjusted; shaded barsdenote recessions; data for one-year unemployment became available in 1994 and is shown through December 2009
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2010
Six months or more One yea r or more
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CharaCteristiCs oF the lonG-term unemPloyeD
Ult tcall t u ad ta t, ad t c
xct. mt, , u wk ad l-ducatd wk a
v-td tult ll. i Dcb2009, tvall ult
at wt wa 8.8 ct, but 15.6 ct Aca Aca ad 12.9 ct
hac w uld.23
Ult a wk btw t a 20 ad 24 8.7 ct
Dcb 2007 t 14.7 ct Dcb 2009.24 T ult at
wk 25 ld wtut a -cl dla 8.2 ct Dcb
2007 t 15.7 ct Dcb 2009.25
ovall, ld wk a a all cta t uld. T ult
at wk ld ta 55 wa 7.0 ct Dcb 2009, blw t atal
ava all wk.26 o all ld wk, bt ld ad uld, l
2.1 ct av b ut wk a a l, al blw t atal ava
allwk.27
hwv, pw aal Cps data w tat c ld wk bc
uld, t a lkl ta u wk t ta uld
a l d t. A uld l btw t a 20 ad 24,
l 18 ct ad b ut wk a a l Dcb 2009.
T cta tadl ca wt a: m ta 29 ct uld
l ld ta 55 ad b ut wk a a a at ta
a u a u ( fu 2, 3 ad 4).28
educat tt jb cut: T ult at adult wt a bacl
d l ta al tat wk wt jut a cl dla.
i Dcb 2009, t vall ult at wk wt a bacl
d wa 4.7 ct, cad t 10.6 ct cl aduat
wt cll xc.29 A lttl ta 1 ct all wk wt cll
d, wt ld uld, av b ut wk a a
l. Tat l ta al t at t wt jut a cl dla.30
hwv, c a wk bc jbl, a lvl ducat vd l
ltd tct aat a l d ult: A Dcb 2009,
21 ct jbl wk wt a cll d ad b uld a a
l, cad t 27 ct uld wk wt l a cl
dla ( fu 5, 6 ad 7).31
L-t ult cut ac al v dut ad ccuat. ev
fild wt vall ult at tat a latvl lw, wk w l t
jb a a jbl a l t. f xal, ducat ad alt wk
av a vall ult at l 5.6 ct, t lwt at a t
dut tat t Cps tack.32 But 21.1 ct t ducat ad alt wk
w a uld av b wtut wk a a l, l ltl l
ta t -a ult at ac all dut ( Adx-Tabl 3).33
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
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A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
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FiGure 3: upd fo y m, agPercentage of Total Unemployed
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
under 20 2024 2534 3544 4554 65+5564
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted
FiGure 2: o up r, agPercentage of Total Labor Force
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
under 20 2024 2534 3544 4554 65+5564
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted
FiGure 4: upd f o y m, agPercentage of Total Labor Force
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
under 20 2024 2534 3544 4554 65+5564
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted
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Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT6
FiGure 6: upd f o y m, edcPercentage of Total Unemployed
30
25
20
15
10
5
Less ThanHighSchool
HighSchoolDiploma
SomeCollege BachelorsDegree AdvancedDegree
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted
FiGure 5: o upr, edcPercentage of Total Labor Force
18
16
14
12
108
6
4
2
Less ThanHigh
School
HighSchool
Diploma
SomeCollege
BachelorsDegree
AdvancedDegree
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted
FiGure 7: upd f o y m, edcPercentage of Total Labor Force
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Less ThanHigh
School
HighSchool
Diploma
SomeCollege
BachelorsDegree
AdvancedDegree
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted
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A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
7
the FisCal imPaCt oF lonG-term unemPloyment
A at l-t ult a ad a dct act t dal
budt b t t xt al ult bfit, atct u
d t vt at-t a ad b duc taxabl wa.
T tadad ca vd ult cat t dal-tat
Ult iuac (Ui) a, wc vd ult uac a axu 26 wk.34 T bfit va b tat,butwkl bfit all
lac btw 50 ad 70 ct wa.35 stat Ui tax lvd l
a t tbfit. i 1970,Ccatd t extdd Bfit a,
wc vd a addtal 13 wk bfit du t ult,
wt t t t xtd t 20 wk w t jbl at call .36 stat
a al t a wt Ui tax ad t dal vt cv t
t al u vu fdal Ult Tax.37
A td a, t ec Ult Cat a, a ta
xt bfit tat C avd 2008. T a ff dfft
lvl bfit bad at tat ult at.38
i ac fical a btw 2005 ad 2007, aual dal d ult
uac ad btw $31 ad $33 bll.39 i fical a 2008, wv, t
t $43 bll40 ad acd $119 bll fical a 2009.41 fdal d
ult bfit culd ac $168 bll fical a 2010, a ta
fivld ca t a datl cd t c.42
rula Ui bfit accut $81 bll tat $168 bll. T a
$87bllt tct addtal ult adtat C aavd
( d t av) t add t bl l-t ult.43
T xta d t ult a t C a tak t l
t uld:
C avd t fit xt t ec UltCat bfit al 2008. B t d tat a, auld wk culd cv bfit u t 79 wk tatwt ult at abv 6 ct, ad u t 66 wk tatwt at blw tat tld.44
T Aca rcv ad rvtt Act 2009 (ArrA),actd fbua 2009, cludd at xt bfit. T
dal vt ad t cv 100 ct extdd Bfita ct, ca wkl bfit b $25 ad vd a addtal$7 bll t tat t cua t t lbalz t Ui lblt ul.ArrA al xtd t fit $2,400 ult bfit dal c tax t 2009 tax a.45 Altt, t ultatac ArrA ct $27 bll fical a 2009 ad jctdt ct $31 bll fical a 2010, accd t CBo. 46
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C avd addtal xt bfit 2009. T Wk,hw, ad Bu Atac Act xtdd Ui bfit wk all tat, a addtal 13 wk tat wt 6 ctult ad a addtal x wk tat wt ultat abv 8.5 ct. CBo tatd t xt wuld ct tdal vt a addtal $3 bll fical a 2010.47 B t
d 2009, uld dvdual a tat w lbl ut 99 wk ult cattu t vau aad xt.
i al 2010, C avd xtd ult bfittu t b Al 2010.48 CBo tat tat t xtwll ct abut $7 bll 2010.49 fall, t hu ad sat avavd llat tat wuld xtd bfit lblt tu td 2010. T au, wc a t t bc law, wuldct a addtal $24 bll 2010, accd t CBo.50
T dal vt a vdd addtal ad t uld wk b
l t a alt uac ud t Cldatd obu Budtrcclat Act (CoBrA). gall, CoBrA allw l w l t
alt cva w t l t jb t ctu t a u at uac,
tu t ut cv t t ct t u tlv. Ud ArrA,
t dal vt ad t a 65 ct alt uac u a
d u t t wk lad ff btw stb 2008 ad t
d 2009. C lat xtdd t d t 15 t.51 Accd t
CBo, t CoBrA v ArrA ct abut $14.3 bll fical a 2009
ad wll ct $9.2 bll fical a 2010.52 A d xt tu t
d 2010 wuld ct a addtal $6 bll.53
hult al a ctbutd t a a k t ub dvdualad al cv d atac. sd t sultal nutt
Atac pa (snAp), l kw a d ta, $35 bll
fical a 200754 t $56 bll fical a 2009. CBo tat tat t a
wll ct $71 bll fical a 2010.55 fu 8 llutat t cuulatv ffct
t ca ult bfit ad lctd dal ad.
L-t ult al affct t dal budt t t d t fical
ld b duc c tax vu ad t aut flw t t
ult uac l. Ui bfit a taxabl, but l t ult
ll a cv l a act t c t wuld b tt t wwk. A a ult, t a a l a act t tax.
T c a caud a ctu dcl dal c tax ct. mt
t dcl t du t ult; uc t du t lw wa wk
w tll av t jb, a wll a t tax cut t vau tulu act ad
2009. nvtl, ultal wt t cd duct
al ca ctbutd t t dcl.
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| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT8
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Cd a ttcal wk a $50,000 2009. At a al
xt $3,650 ad a tadad dduct $5,700, wuld w $6,356
dal c tax (xclud all t cdt ad dduct). But t wk
lt jb Jul 1 ad cvd Ui bfit tat lacd al wa t
ad t a, aual c wuld dcl t abut $37,500. ArrA
xt t fit $2,400 Ui bfit tax. Wt t al xt ad
tadad dduct, wuld l w $3,449 c tax$2,907 l ta
ad b ld t t a.
mv, a ll l-t ult ca d a wa utu
jb. W a wk ut a jb, l ut t tut t a
wk xc ad accuulat kll. T ult ca ca av
a daatc ffct utu c. o tud ud tat ava, U.s. wk
w lt a ull-t jb btw 2001 ad 2003 ad ud a w jb b t t
t w tvwd 2004 ad abut 17 ct l wk ta t
wuld av ad t ad tad t ld jb.56
ma da t av cud t ua tll l-t ult,
atculal t act dvdual ad al. fa l attt a b ad tt fical act t bl. it a b ubtatal: T vt a t
t bll dlla t l t uld, ad t lkl t d bll
b t c ull cv.
A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
9
FiGure 8: Fdspdg up bf, Cobra dsnaP, 20072010In Billions of Dollars
300
250
200
150
100
50
2007 2008 2009 Projected2010
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation
Notes: COBRA = Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition Assistance ProgramUI = Unemployment Insurance
Regular UI Benefits
Additional UI Benefits
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
COBRA Premium Reduction
Tax Exclusion for Unemployment Benefits
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the Possible PersistenCe oF lonG-term unemPloyment
T a val a t blv tat t at l-t ult
wll t t.
ft, du t ct c ava wkl u wkd t vat ct
ll al t a lvl ficatl blw tat vu c. A t c
cv, fi a d b bt t u xt wk, at ta w .57
scd, t ct c a latvl la cta t uld w
lt atl, a d t b lad ff tal. i t 1970 ad 1980,
t auactu ct wa la ad a uld l wk w calld
back t t lat w bu ckd u. Du t dwtu t al
1980, xal, t ava tl cta t uld w w
ta laff wa abut 20 ct. i ctat, 2009 t caabl at
wa abut 11 ct ( fu 9).58
ma t at jb l av b t auactu ct. f
ta al a ctu auactu jb av b k a a cta ttal
U.s. lt. i ct dcad, cad ductvt ad cttav acclatd t td, but t lat tw c av t auactu call
ad. i ctat t vu cv, a t auactu jb tat w
lt du t 2001 c dd t tu c t c bucd back.59
fall, t t dcl valu du t c, cbd wt t
la-t-valu at a ta b t dwtu, a ctbut
t l-t ult b ak t dfficult l t lcat.
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT10
FiGure 9: r f up, J 1967mc 2010Percentage of Total Unemployed
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsNotes: Shaded bars denote recessions; percentages do not add up to 100 percent becauseBLS also categorizes unemployed persons as job leavers, reentrants and new entrants,and those categories are not included here
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Temporarily Laid OffLost Job Permanently or Completed Temporary Job
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ma Aca w t ta ta t u a wt: i t ut
quat 2009, ta 11.3 ll, 24 ct, all dtal t
wt ta ad atv qut.60 T w wll l t al
t , wc culd ak t dfficult t t v t a aa wt btt
jb ct.
i a ct t c ucdtd ad tu cat t cv atculal dfficult. hwv, t cv t c llw t att
t b t lat tw, g Dtc pduct (gDp) ad jb wt wll b lu
t. gDp b l 2.6 ct t u quat llw t c
1990-1991, ad t wa lttl jb wt. T cv t 2001 c
wa v lw. i t x quat llw tat dwtu, al gDp w b
2.1 ct ad lt declinedb ta ll.61
summary anD ConClusions
T at l-t ult at tcall , ad t a ad a
ubtatal act al, vt budt ad t cut vall ccalt. pw fid tat al a quat t uld av b ut wk
a a cat w lt t xtt t bl.
fdal d ult bfit culd ac $168 bll fical a
2010, ta fiv t t ct bfit t a datl cd
t dwtu.62 m ta al tat aut t t ct xtdd
bfit. T dal vt dc t l uld wk a alt
uac ct a addtal $14.3 bll fical a 2009, ad culd ct a uc a
$15 bll fical a 2010.63 T l-t ult at al a
ud cad d t vt at-t a ad
ctbutd t a dcl dal tax ct.
T cut a av t ctd wt a at l-t ult
t. i t 1970 ad 1980, a wk w lad ff tal ad d
c bu ckd u aa. ma t w lt t jb t ct c
w lt atl ad wll t b calld back c t c v.
L-t ult cut ac al v dut ad ccuat. ev
fild wt vall ult at tat a latvl lw, wk w bc
uld a a jbl l d t. Wk ld ta 55 ad
t w a l ducatd a l lkl t bc uld, but a
t a xc l jbl ll c t bc uld.
i cclu, l-t ult affct ll Aca al,
vt budt ad t c a a wl. plc ak av ut t l
tl-tjbl b xtd ult bfit ad t at-t a.
Dt ca fical tat, t wll b ud u t tak addtal
act b t cv tak ld ad t l-t ult at tu
t a lw lvl.
A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
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Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT12
ud 20 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ t
IN THOUSANDS
Employed 4,272 12,343 29,875 30,831 33,325 21,114 6,193 137,953
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 1,039 1,463 1,993 1,790 1,516 774 268 8,844
27-51 weeks 141 268 592 530 591 339 71 2,53252 weeks or more 231 390 681 661 793 468 141 3,364
Total 1,412 2,120 3,267 2,981 2,900 1,581 479 14,740
Labor Force 5,684 14,463 33,141 33,812 36,225 22,695 6,672 152,693
AS PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 18.3 10.1 6.0 5.3 4.2 3.4 4.0 5.8
27-51 weeks 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.7
52 weeks or more 4.1 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2
AS PERCENTAGE OF UNEMPLOYED
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 73.6 69.0 61.0 60.0 52.3 49.0 55.9 60.0
27-51 weeks 10.0 12.6 18.1 17.8 20.4 21.4 14.8 17.2
52 weeks or more 16.4 18.4 20.9 22.2 27.3 29.6 29.3 22.8
APPENDIX TABLES
table 1: UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted; numbers may not equal totals due to rounding
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A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
13
IN THOUSANDS
Employed 10,123 33,803 33,660 28,131 15,620 16,615 137,953
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 1,164 2,236 1,684 912 347 2,502 8,844
27-51 weeks 296 708 644 352 123 409 2,532
52 weeks or more 432 1,062 808 338 104 621 3,364
Total 1,892 4,005 3,135 1,602 574 3,532 14,740
Labor Force 12,015 37,808 36,796 29,733 16,194 20,147 152,693
AS PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 9.7 5.9 4.6 3.1 2.1 12.4 5.8
27-51 weeks 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.8 2.0 1.7
52 weeks or more 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 3.1 2.2
AS PERCENTAGE OF UNEMPLOYED
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 61.5 55.8 53.7 56.9 60.4 70.8 60.0
27-51 weeks 15.7 17.7 20.5 22.0 21.5 11.6 17.2
52 weeks or more 22.9 26.5 25.8 21.1 18.1 17.6 22.8
table 2: UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Notes: Education data only includes workers age 25 and over; Other includes individuals under age 25;numbers are not seasonally adjusted; numbers may not equal totals due to rounding
l hgsc
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sCg
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adcdDg o t
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Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT14
IN
THOUSANDS
Emp
loye
d
1,1
89
667
6,9
56
12,
878
18,5
23
5,4
25
2,7
55
8,6
24
12,
907
20,0
81
11,3
01
5,
758
30,
889
137,9
53
Unemp
loye
d
Lessthan
26wee
ks
251
51
1,2
66
882
1,0
97
295
149
368
887
745
1,0
93
286
1,
474
8,8
44
27
-51wee
ks
16
24
364
406
301
109
36
141
277
188
245
94
330
2,5
32
52wee
ksormore
25
15
414
460
453
135
71
157
321
250
285
133
646
3,3
64
Total
292
89
2,0
44
1,7
47
1,8
51
539
256
665
1,4
86
1,1
83
1,6
24
513
2,4
51
14
,740
La
bor
Force
1,4
81
756
9,0
00
14,
625
20,3
74
5,9
64
3,0
11
9,2
89
14,
393
21,2
65
12,9
24
6,
271
33,
340
152,6
93
ASPERCENTAGEOFLABORFORCE
Unemp
loye
d
Lessthan
26wee
ks17.
0
6.7
14.1
6.
0
5.4
4.9
4.9
4.0
6.
2
3.5
8.
5
4.
6
4.4
5.
8
27
-51wee
ks
1.
1
3.2
4.0
2.
8
1.5
1.8
1.2
1.5
1.
9
0.9
1.
9
1.
5
1.0
1.
7
52wee
ksormore
1.
7
2.0
4.6
3.
1
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.7
2.
2
1.2
2.
2
2.
1
1.9
2.
2
ASPERCENTAGEOFUNEMPLOYED
Unemp
loye
d
Lessthan
26wee
ks85.
9
56.7
62.0
50.
5
59.3
54.7
58.2
55.3
59.
7
63.0
67.
3
55.
7
60.2
60.
0
27
-51wee
ks
5.
6
26.8
17.8
23.
2
16.3
20.2
14.2
21.2
18.
7
15.9
15.
1
18.
3
13.5
17.
2
52wee
ksormore
8.
5
16.5
20.2
26.
3
24.5
25.0
27.6
23.5
21.
6
21.1
17.
6
26.
0
26.4
22.
8
table 3: UNEMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
Source:PewanalysisusingdatafromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey,December2009
Note:Numbersarenotseasonallyadjusted;numbersmaynotequaltotalsduetorounding
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A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE
15
IN THOUSANDS
Employed 52,131 24,216 33,296 869 11,748 15,692 - 137,953
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 1,413 1,829 1,853 204 1,565 1,345 634 8,844
27-51 weeks 515 352 595 15 454 442 160 2,53252 weeks or more 581 566 736 23 542 638 278 3,364
Total 2,509 2,747 3,184 242 2,560 2,425 1,072 14,740
Labor Force 54,640 26,963 36,480 1,111 14,309 18,117 1,072 152,693
AS PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 2.6 6.8 5.1 18.3 10.9 7.4 5.8
27-51 weeks 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 3.2 2.4 1.7
52 weeks or more 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 3.8 3.5 2.2
AS PERCENTAGE OF UNEMPLOYED
Unemployed
Less than 26 weeks 56.3 66.6 58.2 84.3 61.1 55.5 60.0
27-51 weeks 20.5 12.8 18.7 6.3 17.7 18.2 17.2
52 weeks or more 23.1 20.6 23.1 9.5 21.2 26.3 22.8
table 4: UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION
Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted; numbers may not equal totals due to rounding
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1 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, Tabl A-12
(mac 2010). T at aall adjutd. T Datt Lab l bak ult cd t cut 1948. hwv, t vallult at t dat t-Wld Wa ii d wa lw: i bt 1946ad 1947, t wa 3.9 ct.
2 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Historical Data, Tabl A-12.T c t al 1980 latd 16 t.
3 pw calculat t Cut pulat suv Dcb 2009. T Cps data at aall adjutd. T Dcb fiu a ud bcau t a l all dffc Dcb btw t aall adjutd ad -aall adjutd au ta uld wk w av b wtut a jb x t l.ot ct t t qualtatvl la ult.
4
Ibid.5 Ibid.6 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook (stb 2008), . 8;
(Auut 2007), . 12; (Auut 2006), . 12.7 T tat ula bfit : Cal Budt offic, An Analysis of
the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011 (mac 2010), sultal Data Ult Cat.
T tat addtal ult bfit t uc. T tat t ct bfit lblt tu fbua : Cal Budt offic,
An Analysis of the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year2011 (mac 2010), sultalData Ult Cat. T tat t ct xtd bfitlblt tu Al 5, 2010 : Cal Budt offic, H.R. 4691, TemporaryExtension Act of 2010, as introduced on February 25, 2010. fall, t tat t jctdct a bll xtd bfit lblt tu t d 2010, wc t hu adsat av ad aatl, but wc ad t t bc law at t t ublcat, : Cal Budt offic, Budgetary Effects of the American Workers, State, andBusiness Relief Act of 2010, H.R. 4213, as passed by the Senate on March 10, 2010.
8 CtA. pad,L skllDu Ult adtptc eltsck, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vl. 107, n. 4, (nvb 1992), . 1381.
9 Cal Budt offic, Long-Term Unemployment (octb 2007), . 11.10 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020
( Jaua 2010), . 5. T fiu clud $27 bll t Aca rcvad rvtt Act ad $17 bll t xt.
11 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020( Jaua 2010), . 25.
12 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation(nvb 2009) ad Historical Data.
13 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation(mac 2010).
14 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Regional and State Employmentand Unemployment Summary (mac 2010).
15 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, Tabl A-15(mac 2010).
Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE
| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT16
NOTES
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16 Ibid., Historical Data, Tabl A-15 (aall adjutd). T Buau Lab stattc batack t tattc t cut 1994.
17 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation.( Jaua 2010), . 2.
18 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020( Jaua 2010), . 34.
19 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, Tabl A-12(mac 2010). T at aall adjutd.
20 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Historical Data, Tabl A-12.21 21 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,
Tabl A-12 (nvb 2007 ad mac 2004).22 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.23 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, (Dcb
2009). All t ult at t ct a t aall adjutd, t bctt wt t -a calculat.
24 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,htcal Databa.
25 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,Tabl A-4 (Dcb 2009 ad Dcb 2007).
26 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,Tabl A-4 (Dcb 2009).
27 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.28 Ibid.29 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,
Tabl A-4 (Dcb 2009).30 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.31 Ibid.32
U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,Tabl A-14 (Dcb 2009).33 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.34 U.s. Datt Lab, State Unemployment Insurance Benefits Fact Sheet (udatd
Jaua 13, 2010).35 U.s. Datt Lab, elt ad Ta Adtat, Comparison of State
Unemployment Insurance Laws, Tabl 3-5 (udatd Jaua 1, 2009).36 U.s. Datt Lab, UnemploymentExtended BenefitsFactSheet (udatd nvb 19, 2009).37 Cal rac svc, Temporary Programs to Extend Unemployment Compensation
(udatd Jaua 24, 2003), . 1.38 U.s. Datt Lab, Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC) Program
(accd at tt://www.w.dlta.v/ul/d/uc08.d ).39 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook (stb 2008),
. 8; (Auut 2007), . 12; (Auut 2006), . 12.40 CalBudt offic, TheBudget and Economic Outlook (Auut 2009), . 18.41 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020
( Jaua 2010), . 4.42 s nt 7.43 Ibid.44 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 6867, Unemployment Compensation Extension
Act of 2008 (Dcb 22, 2008).
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17
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45 U.s. Datt Lab, Information Related to the American Recovery and ReinvestmentAct of 2009. Accd at tt://www.dl.v/cv/lt.t.
46 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020( Jaua 2010), . 96.
47 Ibid., . 9.48 Utd stat C, Temporary Extension Act of 2010 (mac 2, 2010).
s tt://wbat.acc..v/c-b/tdc.c?dba=111_c_ublc_law&dcd=:ubl144.111.
49 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 4691, Temporary Extension Act of 2010, as introducedon February 25, 2010.
50 Cal Budt offic, Budgetary Effects of the American Workers, State, and Business ReliefAct of 2010, H.R. 4213 a ad b t sat mac 10, 2010.
51 U.s. Datt Lab, Fact Sheet: COBRA Premium Reduction.52 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 1, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, Ttl
iii, halt iuac Atac (fbua 13, 2009), . 4. i ubqut t, ( TheBudget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020, Appendix ACBo cfid t accuac t 2009 ct tat.
53 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 4691, the Temporary Extension Act of 2010. A tducd fbua 25, 2010. Jt Ctt Taxat. etatd rvu effct trvu pv Ctad t Aca Wk, stat, ad Bu rl Act 2010 (mac 10, 2010), . 5.
54 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018,( Jaua 2008), . 56.
55 Cal Budt offic, Analysis of the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011,(mac 2010); sultal Tabl madat sd.
56 h s. fab, Wat D W Kw Abut Jb L t Utd stat? evdc t Dlacd Wk suv 1984-2004, Economic Perspectives, fdal rv Bak Cca, vl. 29, . 2 (2005), . 25.
57
Cal Budt offic, Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2010and 2011 ( Jaua 2010), . 9.58 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Historical Data, Tabl A-11.59 Cal Budt offic, Factors Underlying the Decline in Manufacturing Employment Since
2000 (Dcb 23, 2008), . 1.60 T ub c a t lad fbua 23, 2010 b ft Aca
CLc. T tat bad 47 ll t wt a ta, wc accut v 85 ct all ta t U.s.
61 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020( Jaua 2010), . 34.
62 s nt 7.
63 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 1, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, Ttliii, halt iuac Atac (fbua 13, 2009), . 4. Cal Budt offic,H.R. 4691, Temporary Extension Act of 2010, as introduced on February 25, 2010. JtCtt Taxat, Estimated Revenue Effects of the Revenue Provisions Contained in the
AmericanWorkers, State, and Business Relief Act of 2010 (mac 10, 2010), . 5.
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| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT18
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FISCAL
ANALYSIS
INITIATIVE