pew unemployment final

8/22/2019 PEW Unemployment Final

1/22

FISCAL

ANALYSIS

INITIATIVE

A YEAR OR MORE:The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT


2/22

FISCAL

ANALYSIS

INITIATIVE

Pew Charitable trusts

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ad al-dv vtt t v ct.

PEW ECONOMIC POLICY GROUPPew FisCal analysis initiative

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April 2010


3/22

1 exeCutive summary

2 introDuCtion

2 overview oF Current unemPloymentanD lonG-term unemPloyment

FiGure 1: lg-t up, J 1948mc 2010

5 CharaCteristiCs oF the lonG-term unemPloyeD

FiGure 2: o up r, ag

FiGure 3: upd f o y m, agFiGure 4: upd f o y m, ag

FiGure 5: o up r, edc

FiGure 6: upd f o y m, edc

FiGure 7: upd f o y m, edc

7 the FisCal imPaCt oF lonG-term unemPloyment

FiGure 8: Fd spdg up bf,

Cobra d snaP, 20072010

10 the Possible PersistenCeoF lonG-term unemPloyment

FiGure9: r f up, J 1967mc2010

11 summary anD ConClusions

12 aPPenDix tables

table 1: up ag

table 2: up edc

table 3: up id

table 4: up occp

16 notes

C O N T E N T S :



4/22

exeCutive summaryT dal vt dfi l-t ult a a jbl

d x t l. i mac 2010, v 44 ct uld

Aca t xcdd tat tadadt t at c Wld Wa ii.1

i ctat, du t v c t al 1980, t cta

wk uld x t l akd at 26 ct 1983.2

T da av td t tcall x-t ult fiu,

but a w tud b t pw fcal Aal itatv ut b calculat t

cta l w av b uld a a . T aal

ut lluat t xtt t cut l-t ult bl

ad t act t at fical cdt.

Accd t pw aal Cut pulat suv (Cps) data Dcb 2009, 23 ct t al 15 ll Acaw a uld av b jbl a a .3 Tat ctatalat t 3.4 ll l, ul quvalt t t ulat t tat Cctcut.

L-tult cut ac al v dut ad ccuat.ev fild wt vall ult at tat alatvl lw,wkw a uld a a a l t.

L-t ult ccu a l all a. Wlwk 55 ld a l lkl t bc uld, t w da lkl t ta uld a l d t. nal 30ct uld l 55 ld av b jbl a a la at ta a t a u.4

oc a ut wk, a lvl ducat vd l ltdtct aat a l d ult. Twt- ct uld wk wt a bacl d av b wtut wk a a l, cad t 27ct uld claduatad 23 ct uld cl d-ut.5

i t cut fical a, dal d ult bfit jctd t b fiv t at ta t wa ac t a datlcd t c. i ac fical a btw 2005 ad 2007, aualdal d ult uac ad btw $31 ad$33 bll.6 fdal d ult bfit culd ac$168 bll fical a 2010, wc $81 bll t d ulabfit. Ta$87bllt tct addtalult ad tat C a avd ( d t av)t l l w av b ut wk x t l.7

A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT |

Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANALYSIS INITIATIVE

1



5/22

introDuCtion

A at l-t ult a ficat lcat al,

vt budt ad t cut vall cc ad cal alt.

f dvdual, t lkld fid a jb dcl a t lt ult

ca. pl w a uld a l t ca l t jb kll. A l

ult ll ca ak t a udabl, ak t dfficult t ctaat t jb caddat.8 Cps data ut tat wk w a jbl t

lt duat cu t lat duct wkl a u tu t wk.9

L-t ult al a ad a ficat act t dal budt.

T l t ll l w a tuck t ult ll, C

a avd xtd ult bfit bd t al 26-wk lt.

T xt ct al $44 bll fical a 2009 al.10 T dal

vt al a cad d atac ad ad a at a

alt-ca cva t w av b wtut wk a l t.

sc l a l c tax w t a ut wk, l-t

ult al a ducd dal vu. f t c a a wl,

ult cd wt lt utut: W lab udutlzd,

t at duc w d ad vc ta t caabl duc.

i t cut cv llw t att t b t lat tw, wll a

lu t. Jb l ctud al tw a at t 2001

dwtu, ad vall lt ub dd t tu t -c

utl 2005. T Cal Budt offic (CBo) jct tat t ult

at wll a abv 9 ct tu 2011 ad tat t at wll t dcl t

5 ctt -calld atual at ultutl 2016.11

pw vtat t ulat t affctd b l-t ult tu

a w l b lk at wk w av b uld a a ad

valuat t fical ad cc ffct.

overview oF Current unemPloymentanD lonG-term unemPloyment

T Utd stat t dt t wt d ult c

t d t Wld Wa ii. T ult at du t c akd

at 10.1 ct octb 2009, al ac t t-wa cd 10.8 ct

t Dcb 1982.12 Accd t t Buau Lab stattc (BLs), t vall

ult at wa 9.7 ct mac 2010. T a t w abut

15 ll l w w actvl ac lt but w uuccul.13

i fbua 2010, 13 tat ad t Dtct Cluba ad a ult at

ta 10 ct, ad x tat (Cala, flda, mca, nvada,

rd ilad, ad sut Cala) ad a at at lat 12 ct.14

Pew Economic Policy Group: FISCAL ANA LYSIS INITIATIVE

| A YEAR OR MORE: The high CosT of Long-Term UnempLoymenT2


6/22

T fiu d t catu t ull c t bl, c t d t clud

l w bca dcuad ad td k lt, l w

dcdd t t al at ta k ac ad u l w av dlad

t t t t wk c. T fiu al xclud l w wuld

ull-t lt but av b cd t acct at-t wktad. W

t wk a cutd t calculat, t ult at mac 2010

bc 16.9 ct.15 T cl kw a t udlt at.

i t atat t 2001 c, t caabl at akd at 10.4 ct.16

f t tat t c tu Ju 2009w lt td

ctact alall lt ll b 6.4 ll.17 T cuulatv

dcl 5.2 ct du t d t tt d x dcad.18

i addt t t lvl vall ult, t c a b

caactzd b t l d t tat a l av ad t

ult ll. T dal vt dfi l-t ult

a a jbl d x t l. i mac 2010, v 44 ct

uld Aca t xcdd tat tadadt t at c Wld

Wa ii.19 i ctat, du t v c t al 1980, t cta

wk uld x t l akd at 26 ct 1983.20

T l-t ult at t t ctuat a dcad-

l td, tat a wd at dwtu but a td v du

d wt. i mac 2004, at t t ct ak, t cta l

w ad b uld at lat x t wa 23.4 ct. i nvb

2007, t lat t cc xa b t cut c, 19.5

ct t uld ad b jbl at lat x t ( fu 1).21

pw aalutlluat t blbcalculat tcta lwav b uld a a . i Dcb 2009, al t ad a al

ll Aca, 23 ct t uld, ad b jbl a a l.22



3

FiGure 1: lg-t up, J 1948mc 2010Percentage of Total Unemployed

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Source: Pew analysis using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Current Population SurveyNotes: Six-month numbers are seasonally adjusted; one-year numbers are not seasonally adjusted; shaded barsdenote recessions; data for one-year unemployment became available in 1994 and is shown through December 2009

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2010

Six months or more One yea r or more


7/22

CharaCteristiCs oF the lonG-term unemPloyeD

Ult tcall t u ad ta t, ad t c

xct. mt, , u wk ad l-ducatd wk a

v-td tult ll. i Dcb2009, tvall ult

at wt wa 8.8 ct, but 15.6 ct Aca Aca ad 12.9 ct

hac w uld.23

Ult a wk btw t a 20 ad 24 8.7 ct

Dcb 2007 t 14.7 ct Dcb 2009.24 T ult at

wk 25 ld wtut a -cl dla 8.2 ct Dcb

2007 t 15.7 ct Dcb 2009.25

ovall, ld wk a a all cta t uld. T ult

at wk ld ta 55 wa 7.0 ct Dcb 2009, blw t atal

ava all wk.26 o all ld wk, bt ld ad uld, l

2.1 ct av b ut wk a a l, al blw t atal ava

allwk.27

hwv, pw aal Cps data w tat c ld wk bc

uld, t a lkl ta u wk t ta uld

a l d t. A uld l btw t a 20 ad 24,

l 18 ct ad b ut wk a a l Dcb 2009.

T cta tadl ca wt a: m ta 29 ct uld

l ld ta 55 ad b ut wk a a a at ta

a u a u ( fu 2, 3 ad 4).28

educat tt jb cut: T ult at adult wt a bacl

d l ta al tat wk wt jut a cl dla.

i Dcb 2009, t vall ult at wk wt a bacl

d wa 4.7 ct, cad t 10.6 ct cl aduat

wt cll xc.29 A lttl ta 1 ct all wk wt cll

d, wt ld uld, av b ut wk a a

l. Tat l ta al t at t wt jut a cl dla.30

hwv, c a wk bc jbl, a lvl ducat vd l

ltd tct aat a l d ult: A Dcb 2009,

21 ct jbl wk wt a cll d ad b uld a a

l, cad t 27 ct uld wk wt l a cl

dla ( fu 5, 6 ad 7).31

L-t ult cut ac al v dut ad ccuat. ev

fild wt vall ult at tat a latvl lw, wk w l t

jb a a jbl a l t. f xal, ducat ad alt wk

av a vall ult at l 5.6 ct, t lwt at a t

dut tat t Cps tack.32 But 21.1 ct t ducat ad alt wk

w a uld av b wtut wk a a l, l ltl l

ta t -a ult at ac all dut ( Adx-Tabl 3).33




8/22



5

FiGure 3: upd fo y m, agPercentage of Total Unemployed

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

under 20 2024 2534 3544 4554 65+5564

Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted

FiGure 2: o up r, agPercentage of Total Labor Force

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

under 20 2024 2534 3544 4554 65+5564


FiGure 4: upd f o y m, agPercentage of Total Labor Force

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

under 20 2024 2534 3544 4554 65+5564



9/22



FiGure 6: upd f o y m, edcPercentage of Total Unemployed

30

25

20

15

10

5

Less ThanHighSchool

HighSchoolDiploma

SomeCollege BachelorsDegree AdvancedDegree


FiGure 5: o upr, edcPercentage of Total Labor Force

18

16

14

12

108

6

4

2

Less ThanHigh

School

HighSchool

Diploma

SomeCollege

BachelorsDegree

AdvancedDegree


FiGure 7: upd f o y m, edcPercentage of Total Labor Force

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Less ThanHigh

School

HighSchool

Diploma

SomeCollege

BachelorsDegree

AdvancedDegree



10/22



7

the FisCal imPaCt oF lonG-term unemPloyment

A at l-t ult a ad a dct act t dal

budt b t t xt al ult bfit, atct u

d t vt at-t a ad b duc taxabl wa.

T tadad ca vd ult cat t dal-tat

Ult iuac (Ui) a, wc vd ult uac a axu 26 wk.34 T bfit va b tat,butwkl bfit all

lac btw 50 ad 70 ct wa.35 stat Ui tax lvd l

a t tbfit. i 1970,Ccatd t extdd Bfit a,

wc vd a addtal 13 wk bfit du t ult,

wt t t t xtd t 20 wk w t jbl at call .36 stat

a al t a wt Ui tax ad t dal vt cv t

t al u vu fdal Ult Tax.37

A td a, t ec Ult Cat a, a ta

xt bfit tat C avd 2008. T a ff dfft

lvl bfit bad at tat ult at.38

i ac fical a btw 2005 ad 2007, aual dal d ult

uac ad btw $31 ad $33 bll.39 i fical a 2008, wv, t

t $43 bll40 ad acd $119 bll fical a 2009.41 fdal d

ult bfit culd ac $168 bll fical a 2010, a ta

fivld ca t a datl cd t c.42

rula Ui bfit accut $81 bll tat $168 bll. T a

$87bllt tct addtal ult adtat C aavd

( d t av) t add t bl l-t ult.43

T xta d t ult a t C a tak t l

t uld:

C avd t fit xt t ec UltCat bfit al 2008. B t d tat a, auld wk culd cv bfit u t 79 wk tatwt ult at abv 6 ct, ad u t 66 wk tatwt at blw tat tld.44

T Aca rcv ad rvtt Act 2009 (ArrA),actd fbua 2009, cludd at xt bfit. T

dal vt ad t cv 100 ct extdd Bfita ct, ca wkl bfit b $25 ad vd a addtal$7 bll t tat t cua t t lbalz t Ui lblt ul.ArrA al xtd t fit $2,400 ult bfit dal c tax t 2009 tax a.45 Altt, t ultatac ArrA ct $27 bll fical a 2009 ad jctdt ct $31 bll fical a 2010, accd t CBo. 46


11/22

C avd addtal xt bfit 2009. T Wk,hw, ad Bu Atac Act xtdd Ui bfit wk all tat, a addtal 13 wk tat wt 6 ctult ad a addtal x wk tat wt ultat abv 8.5 ct. CBo tatd t xt wuld ct tdal vt a addtal $3 bll fical a 2010.47 B t

d 2009, uld dvdual a tat w lbl ut 99 wk ult cattu t vau aad xt.

i al 2010, C avd xtd ult bfittu t b Al 2010.48 CBo tat tat t xtwll ct abut $7 bll 2010.49 fall, t hu ad sat avavd llat tat wuld xtd bfit lblt tu td 2010. T au, wc a t t bc law, wuldct a addtal $24 bll 2010, accd t CBo.50

T dal vt a vdd addtal ad t uld wk b

l t a alt uac ud t Cldatd obu Budtrcclat Act (CoBrA). gall, CoBrA allw l w l t

alt cva w t l t jb t ctu t a u at uac,

tu t ut cv t t ct t u tlv. Ud ArrA,

t dal vt ad t a 65 ct alt uac u a

d u t t wk lad ff btw stb 2008 ad t

d 2009. C lat xtdd t d t 15 t.51 Accd t

CBo, t CoBrA v ArrA ct abut $14.3 bll fical a 2009

ad wll ct $9.2 bll fical a 2010.52 A d xt tu t

d 2010 wuld ct a addtal $6 bll.53

hult al a ctbutd t a a k t ub dvdualad al cv d atac. sd t sultal nutt

Atac pa (snAp), l kw a d ta, $35 bll

fical a 200754 t $56 bll fical a 2009. CBo tat tat t a

wll ct $71 bll fical a 2010.55 fu 8 llutat t cuulatv ffct

t ca ult bfit ad lctd dal ad.

L-t ult al affct t dal budt t t d t fical

ld b duc c tax vu ad t aut flw t t

ult uac l. Ui bfit a taxabl, but l t ult

ll a cv l a act t c t wuld b tt t wwk. A a ult, t a a l a act t tax.

T c a caud a ctu dcl dal c tax ct. mt

t dcl t du t ult; uc t du t lw wa wk

w tll av t jb, a wll a t tax cut t vau tulu act ad

2009. nvtl, ultal wt t cd duct

al ca ctbutd t t dcl.




12/22

Cd a ttcal wk a $50,000 2009. At a al

xt $3,650 ad a tadad dduct $5,700, wuld w $6,356

dal c tax (xclud all t cdt ad dduct). But t wk

lt jb Jul 1 ad cvd Ui bfit tat lacd al wa t

ad t a, aual c wuld dcl t abut $37,500. ArrA

xt t fit $2,400 Ui bfit tax. Wt t al xt ad

tadad dduct, wuld l w $3,449 c tax$2,907 l ta

ad b ld t t a.

mv, a ll l-t ult ca d a wa utu

jb. W a wk ut a jb, l ut t tut t a

wk xc ad accuulat kll. T ult ca ca av

a daatc ffct utu c. o tud ud tat ava, U.s. wk

w lt a ull-t jb btw 2001 ad 2003 ad ud a w jb b t t

t w tvwd 2004 ad abut 17 ct l wk ta t

wuld av ad t ad tad t ld jb.56

ma da t av cud t ua tll l-t ult,

atculal t act dvdual ad al. fa l attt a b ad tt fical act t bl. it a b ubtatal: T vt a t

t bll dlla t l t uld, ad t lkl t d bll

b t c ull cv.



9

FiGure 8: Fdspdg up bf, Cobra dsnaP, 20072010In Billions of Dollars

300

250

200

150

100

50

2007 2008 2009 Projected2010

Source: Pew analysis using data from the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation

Notes: COBRA = Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition Assistance ProgramUI = Unemployment Insurance

Regular UI Benefits

Additional UI Benefits

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)

COBRA Premium Reduction

Tax Exclusion for Unemployment Benefits


13/22

the Possible PersistenCe oF lonG-term unemPloyment

T a val a t blv tat t at l-t ult

wll t t.

ft, du t ct c ava wkl u wkd t vat ct

ll al t a lvl ficatl blw tat vu c. A t c

cv, fi a d b bt t u xt wk, at ta w .57

scd, t ct c a latvl la cta t uld w

lt atl, a d t b lad ff tal. i t 1970 ad 1980,

t auactu ct wa la ad a uld l wk w calld

back t t lat w bu ckd u. Du t dwtu t al

1980, xal, t ava tl cta t uld w w

ta laff wa abut 20 ct. i ctat, 2009 t caabl at

wa abut 11 ct ( fu 9).58

ma t at jb l av b t auactu ct. f

ta al a ctu auactu jb av b k a a cta ttal

U.s. lt. i ct dcad, cad ductvt ad cttav acclatd t td, but t lat tw c av t auactu call

ad. i ctat t vu cv, a t auactu jb tat w

lt du t 2001 c dd t tu c t c bucd back.59

fall, t t dcl valu du t c, cbd wt t

la-t-valu at a ta b t dwtu, a ctbut

t l-t ult b ak t dfficult l t lcat.



FiGure 9: r f up, J 1967mc 2010Percentage of Total Unemployed

60

50

40

30

20

10

Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsNotes: Shaded bars denote recessions; percentages do not add up to 100 percent becauseBLS also categorizes unemployed persons as job leavers, reentrants and new entrants,and those categories are not included here

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Temporarily Laid OffLost Job Permanently or Completed Temporary Job


14/22

ma Aca w t ta ta t u a wt: i t ut

quat 2009, ta 11.3 ll, 24 ct, all dtal t

wt ta ad atv qut.60 T w wll l t al

t , wc culd ak t dfficult t t v t a aa wt btt

jb ct.

i a ct t c ucdtd ad tu cat t cv atculal dfficult. hwv, t cv t c llw t att

t b t lat tw, g Dtc pduct (gDp) ad jb wt wll b lu

t. gDp b l 2.6 ct t u quat llw t c

1990-1991, ad t wa lttl jb wt. T cv t 2001 c

wa v lw. i t x quat llw tat dwtu, al gDp w b

2.1 ct ad lt declinedb ta ll.61

summary anD ConClusions

T at l-t ult at tcall , ad t a ad a

ubtatal act al, vt budt ad t cut vall ccalt. pw fid tat al a quat t uld av b ut wk

a a cat w lt t xtt t bl.

fdal d ult bfit culd ac $168 bll fical a

2010, ta fiv t t ct bfit t a datl cd

t dwtu.62 m ta al tat aut t t ct xtdd

bfit. T dal vt dc t l uld wk a alt

uac ct a addtal $14.3 bll fical a 2009, ad culd ct a uc a

$15 bll fical a 2010.63 T l-t ult at al a

ud cad d t vt at-t a ad

ctbutd t a dcl dal tax ct.

T cut a av t ctd wt a at l-t ult

t. i t 1970 ad 1980, a wk w lad ff tal ad d

c bu ckd u aa. ma t w lt t jb t ct c

w lt atl ad wll t b calld back c t c v.

L-t ult cut ac al v dut ad ccuat. ev

fild wt vall ult at tat a latvl lw, wk w bc

uld a a jbl l d t. Wk ld ta 55 ad

t w a l ducatd a l lkl t bc uld, but a

t a xc l jbl ll c t bc uld.

i cclu, l-t ult affct ll Aca al,

vt budt ad t c a a wl. plc ak av ut t l

tl-tjbl b xtd ult bfit ad t at-t a.

Dt ca fical tat, t wll b ud u t tak addtal

act b t cv tak ld ad t l-t ult at tu

t a lw lvl.



11


15/22



ud 20 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ t

IN THOUSANDS

Employed 4,272 12,343 29,875 30,831 33,325 21,114 6,193 137,953

Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 1,039 1,463 1,993 1,790 1,516 774 268 8,844

27-51 weeks 141 268 592 530 591 339 71 2,53252 weeks or more 231 390 681 661 793 468 141 3,364

Total 1,412 2,120 3,267 2,981 2,900 1,581 479 14,740

Labor Force 5,684 14,463 33,141 33,812 36,225 22,695 6,672 152,693

AS PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE

Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 18.3 10.1 6.0 5.3 4.2 3.4 4.0 5.8

27-51 weeks 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.7

52 weeks or more 4.1 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2

AS PERCENTAGE OF UNEMPLOYED

Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 73.6 69.0 61.0 60.0 52.3 49.0 55.9 60.0

27-51 weeks 10.0 12.6 18.1 17.8 20.4 21.4 14.8 17.2

52 weeks or more 16.4 18.4 20.9 22.2 27.3 29.6 29.3 22.8

APPENDIX TABLES

table 1: UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE

Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted; numbers may not equal totals due to rounding


16/22



13

IN THOUSANDS

Employed 10,123 33,803 33,660 28,131 15,620 16,615 137,953

Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 1,164 2,236 1,684 912 347 2,502 8,844

27-51 weeks 296 708 644 352 123 409 2,532

52 weeks or more 432 1,062 808 338 104 621 3,364

Total 1,892 4,005 3,135 1,602 574 3,532 14,740

Labor Force 12,015 37,808 36,796 29,733 16,194 20,147 152,693


Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 9.7 5.9 4.6 3.1 2.1 12.4 5.8

27-51 weeks 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.8 2.0 1.7

52 weeks or more 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 3.1 2.2


Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 61.5 55.8 53.7 56.9 60.4 70.8 60.0

27-51 weeks 15.7 17.7 20.5 22.0 21.5 11.6 17.2

52 weeks or more 22.9 26.5 25.8 21.1 18.1 17.6 22.8

table 2: UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION

Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Notes: Education data only includes workers age 25 and over; Other includes individuals under age 25;numbers are not seasonally adjusted; numbers may not equal totals due to rounding

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bcDg

adcdDg o t


17/22



IN

THOUSANDS

Emp

loye

d

1,1

89

667

6,9

56

12,

878

18,5

23

5,4

25

2,7

55

8,6

24

12,

907

20,0

81

11,3

01

5,

758

30,

889

137,9

53

Unemp

loye

d

Lessthan

26wee

ks

251

51

1,2

66

882

1,0

97

295

149

368

887

745

1,0

93

286

1,

474

8,8

44

27

-51wee

ks

16

24

364

406

301

109

36

141

277

188

245

94

330

2,5

32

52wee

ksormore

25

15

414

460

453

135

71

157

321

250

285

133

646

3,3

64

Total

292

89

2,0

44

1,7

47

1,8

51

539

256

665

1,4

86

1,1

83

1,6

24

513

2,4

51

14

,740

La

bor

Force

1,4

81

756

9,0

00

14,

625

20,3

74

5,9

64

3,0

11

9,2

89

14,

393

21,2

65

12,9

24

6,

271

33,

340

152,6

93

ASPERCENTAGEOFLABORFORCE

Unemp

loye

d

Lessthan

26wee

ks17.

0

6.7

14.1

6.

0

5.4

4.9

4.9

4.0

6.

2

3.5

8.

5

4.

6

4.4

5.

8

27

-51wee

ks

1.

1

3.2

4.0

2.

8

1.5

1.8

1.2

1.5

1.

9

0.9

1.

9

1.

5

1.0

1.

7

52wee

ksormore

1.

7

2.0

4.6

3.

1

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.7

2.

2

1.2

2.

2

2.

1

1.9

2.

2

ASPERCENTAGEOFUNEMPLOYED

Unemp

loye

d

Lessthan

26wee

ks85.

9

56.7

62.0

50.

5

59.3

54.7

58.2

55.3

59.

7

63.0

67.

3

55.

7

60.2

60.

0

27

-51wee

ks

5.

6

26.8

17.8

23.

2

16.3

20.2

14.2

21.2

18.

7

15.9

15.

1

18.

3

13.5

17.

2

52wee

ksormore

8.

5

16.5

20.2

26.

3

24.5

25.0

27.6

23.5

21.

6

21.1

17.

6

26.

0

26.4

22.

8

table 3: UNEMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

Source:PewanalysisusingdatafromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey,December2009

Note:Numbersarenotseasonallyadjusted;numbersmaynotequaltotalsduetorounding

Cn

c

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fc

n

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acv

Pf

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18/22



15

IN THOUSANDS

Employed 52,131 24,216 33,296 869 11,748 15,692 - 137,953

Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 1,413 1,829 1,853 204 1,565 1,345 634 8,844

27-51 weeks 515 352 595 15 454 442 160 2,53252 weeks or more 581 566 736 23 542 638 278 3,364

Total 2,509 2,747 3,184 242 2,560 2,425 1,072 14,740

Labor Force 54,640 26,963 36,480 1,111 14,309 18,117 1,072 152,693


Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 2.6 6.8 5.1 18.3 10.9 7.4 5.8

27-51 weeks 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 3.2 2.4 1.7

52 weeks or more 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 3.8 3.5 2.2


Unemployed

Less than 26 weeks 56.3 66.6 58.2 84.3 61.1 55.5 60.0

27-51 weeks 20.5 12.8 18.7 6.3 17.7 18.2 17.2

52 weeks or more 23.1 20.6 23.1 9.5 21.2 26.3 22.8

table 4: UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION

Source: Pew analysis using data from the Current Population Survey, December 2009Note: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted; numbers may not equal totals due to rounding

mnge

en

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ice

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19/22

1 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, Tabl A-12

(mac 2010). T at aall adjutd. T Datt Lab l bak ult cd t cut 1948. hwv, t vallult at t dat t-Wld Wa ii d wa lw: i bt 1946ad 1947, t wa 3.9 ct.

2 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Historical Data, Tabl A-12.T c t al 1980 latd 16 t.

3 pw calculat t Cut pulat suv Dcb 2009. T Cps data at aall adjutd. T Dcb fiu a ud bcau t a l all dffc Dcb btw t aall adjutd ad -aall adjutd au ta uld wk w av b wtut a jb x t l.ot ct t t qualtatvl la ult.

4

Ibid.5 Ibid.6 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook (stb 2008), . 8;

(Auut 2007), . 12; (Auut 2006), . 12.7 T tat ula bfit : Cal Budt offic, An Analysis of

the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011 (mac 2010), sultal Data Ult Cat.

T tat addtal ult bfit t uc. T tat t ct bfit lblt tu fbua : Cal Budt offic,

An Analysis of the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year2011 (mac 2010), sultalData Ult Cat. T tat t ct xtd bfitlblt tu Al 5, 2010 : Cal Budt offic, H.R. 4691, TemporaryExtension Act of 2010, as introduced on February 25, 2010. fall, t tat t jctdct a bll xtd bfit lblt tu t d 2010, wc t hu adsat av ad aatl, but wc ad t t bc law at t t ublcat, : Cal Budt offic, Budgetary Effects of the American Workers, State, andBusiness Relief Act of 2010, H.R. 4213, as passed by the Senate on March 10, 2010.

8 CtA. pad,L skllDu Ult adtptc eltsck, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vl. 107, n. 4, (nvb 1992), . 1381.

9 Cal Budt offic, Long-Term Unemployment (octb 2007), . 11.10 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020

( Jaua 2010), . 5. T fiu clud $27 bll t Aca rcvad rvtt Act ad $17 bll t xt.

11 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020( Jaua 2010), . 25.

12 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation(nvb 2009) ad Historical Data.

13 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation(mac 2010).

14 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Regional and State Employmentand Unemployment Summary (mac 2010).

15 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, Tabl A-15(mac 2010).



NOTES


20/22

16 Ibid., Historical Data, Tabl A-15 (aall adjutd). T Buau Lab stattc batack t tattc t cut 1994.

17 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation.( Jaua 2010), . 2.


19 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, Tabl A-12(mac 2010). T at aall adjutd.

20 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Historical Data, Tabl A-12.21 21 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,

Tabl A-12 (nvb 2007 ad mac 2004).22 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.23 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation, (Dcb

2009). All t ult at t ct a t aall adjutd, t bctt wt t -a calculat.

24 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,htcal Databa.

25 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,Tabl A-4 (Dcb 2009 ad Dcb 2007).

26 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,Tabl A-4 (Dcb 2009).

27 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.28 Ibid.29 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,

Tabl A-4 (Dcb 2009).30 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.31 Ibid.32

U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, The Employment Situation,Tabl A-14 (Dcb 2009).33 pw calculat u data t Cut pulat suv, Dcb 2009.34 U.s. Datt Lab, State Unemployment Insurance Benefits Fact Sheet (udatd

Jaua 13, 2010).35 U.s. Datt Lab, elt ad Ta Adtat, Comparison of State

Unemployment Insurance Laws, Tabl 3-5 (udatd Jaua 1, 2009).36 U.s. Datt Lab, UnemploymentExtended BenefitsFactSheet (udatd nvb 19, 2009).37 Cal rac svc, Temporary Programs to Extend Unemployment Compensation

(udatd Jaua 24, 2003), . 1.38 U.s. Datt Lab, Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC) Program

(accd at tt://www.w.dlta.v/ul/d/uc08.d ).39 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook (stb 2008),

. 8; (Auut 2007), . 12; (Auut 2006), . 12.40 CalBudt offic, TheBudget and Economic Outlook (Auut 2009), . 18.41 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020

( Jaua 2010), . 4.42 s nt 7.43 Ibid.44 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 6867, Unemployment Compensation Extension

Act of 2008 (Dcb 22, 2008).



17


21/22

45 U.s. Datt Lab, Information Related to the American Recovery and ReinvestmentAct of 2009. Accd at tt://www.dl.v/cv/lt.t.


47 Ibid., . 9.48 Utd stat C, Temporary Extension Act of 2010 (mac 2, 2010).

s tt://wbat.acc..v/c-b/tdc.c?dba=111_c_ublc_law&dcd=:ubl144.111.

49 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 4691, Temporary Extension Act of 2010, as introducedon February 25, 2010.

50 Cal Budt offic, Budgetary Effects of the American Workers, State, and Business ReliefAct of 2010, H.R. 4213 a ad b t sat mac 10, 2010.

51 U.s. Datt Lab, Fact Sheet: COBRA Premium Reduction.52 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 1, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, Ttl

iii, halt iuac Atac (fbua 13, 2009), . 4. i ubqut t, ( TheBudget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020, Appendix ACBo cfid t accuac t 2009 ct tat.

53 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 4691, the Temporary Extension Act of 2010. A tducd fbua 25, 2010. Jt Ctt Taxat. etatd rvu effct trvu pv Ctad t Aca Wk, stat, ad Bu rl Act 2010 (mac 10, 2010), . 5.

54 Cal Budt offic, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018,( Jaua 2008), . 56.

55 Cal Budt offic, Analysis of the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011,(mac 2010); sultal Tabl madat sd.

56 h s. fab, Wat D W Kw Abut Jb L t Utd stat? evdc t Dlacd Wk suv 1984-2004, Economic Perspectives, fdal rv Bak Cca, vl. 29, . 2 (2005), . 25.

57

Cal Budt offic, Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2010and 2011 ( Jaua 2010), . 9.58 U.s. Datt Lab, Buau Lab stattc, Historical Data, Tabl A-11.59 Cal Budt offic, Factors Underlying the Decline in Manufacturing Employment Since

2000 (Dcb 23, 2008), . 1.60 T ub c a t lad fbua 23, 2010 b ft Aca

CLc. T tat bad 47 ll t wt a ta, wc accut v 85 ct all ta t U.s.


62 s nt 7.

63 Cal Budt offic, H.R. 1, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, Ttliii, halt iuac Atac (fbua 13, 2009), . 4. Cal Budt offic,H.R. 4691, Temporary Extension Act of 2010, as introduced on February 25, 2010. JtCtt Taxat, Estimated Revenue Effects of the Revenue Provisions Contained in the

AmericanWorkers, State, and Business Relief Act of 2010 (mac 10, 2010), . 5.




22/22

FISCAL

ANALYSIS

INITIATIVE

pew unemployment final

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