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Permafrost and Active Layer Modeling in the Northern Eurasia using MODIS Land Surface Temperature as a boundary conditions
Sergei Marchenko, *Sergei Marchenko, *Sonia Sonia HachemHachem, **, **Vladimir Romanovsky, *Vladimir Romanovsky, *Claude R. Claude R. DuguayDuguay ******
* Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA ** Centre d’études Nordiques, Département de Géographie, Université Laval, Québec, Canada *** Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change and Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Canada
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Outlines
- Northern Eurasia surface temperature data vs
MODIS LST
- The GIPL-1.2 Model
-
Results from Permafrost Temperature and Active Layer Thickness
(ALT) Modeling using MODIS Land Surface Temperature
- Comparison of modeled and observed permafrost temperature data
-
Conclusions
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The Main Science Questions of this Research are:
Is it possible to use the land surface temperature satellite data for permafrost and active layer modeling?
If so, what is the bias between modeled and observed data?
What is the way to reduce existing biases?
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Permafrost and ground ice distribution within the Northern Eurasia and location of the weather stations, data from which used for analysis. The RMS error of the derived surface temperatures when compared with in situ data ranges from
1 to 2°
K over the
6-yr period within the Northern Eurasia region.
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GIPL-1.2 Model simulated mean annual temperature at the permafrost table averaged for 1980-99 using CRU-2 data set as a climate forcing (A) in comparison with the IPA permafrost map (Brown et al., 1997) (B).
Permafrost Distribution in the Northern Hemisphere
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The GIPL-1.2 Model Schematic DiagramGeophysical Institute Permafrost Lab
(GIPL)
MODIS LST + SSM/I SWE
Snow hsn,
Vegetation hveg
Soil Zorg
Permafrost
Active Layer ALT
Aair Tair
Aveg Tveg
Aorg Torg
Aalt
btm
TAL btm
Tp
Input Dataset
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5 km spatial resolution of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (top) and SSM/I snow water equivalent (bottom) averaged for 2001-2007
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∆
Tk
= It
(Kt
/Kf
- 1)/τ
for Kt
It
≤
Kf
If seasonally thawed
∆
Tk
= If
(1 -
Kf
/Kt
)/τ
for Kt
It
> Kf
If seasonally frozen
Thawing and freezing indices at the ground surface for thermal offset
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44 Ecosystem classes with prescribed thermal properties of vegetation.
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56 Soil classes with thermal properties and soil water content
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled snow density averaged for 2001-2007 using as a forcing the MODIS LST and SSM/I SWE
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled snow thermal conductivity averaged for 2001-2007 using as a forcing the MODIS LST and SSM/I SWE
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled snow depth averaged for 2001-2007 using as a forcing the MODIS LST and SSM/I SWE
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled snow insulation effect on the ground temperature averaged for 2001-2007 using as a forcing the MODIS LST and SSM/I SWE
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled thermal offset averaged for 2001-2007 using as a forcing the MODIS LST and SSM/I SWE
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled mean annual ground temperature at the bottom of active layer and permafrost distribution using as a forcing the MODIS LST and
SSM/I SWE
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled mean annual ground temperature at the bottom of active layer and permafrost distribution using as a forcing the MODIS LST and
SSM/I SWE in
comparison with control run with CRU2 dataset as a forcing
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The GIPL-1.2 modeled active layer thickness averaged for 2001-2007 using as a forcing the MODIS LST and SSM/I SWE
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Remote Sensing
Modeli
ng
Validation, Calibration
Determining the most criticallocations where observations are needed
Model Calibration,Driver
MonitoringDesign
Up-scaling
Interactive electronic maps:Freeze-up dates with daily resolutionChanges in permafrost temperatureChanges in permafrost distribution
Monitoring and projecting developmentof permafrost-related processes and hazards
and producing risk assessment maps:• Coastal erosion• Thaw settlement• Talik formation
• Surface instability
Retrospective ModelingPredictive modeling
Land cover classificationLand use / Land cover change detection
Indicator indices: NDVI, wetnessSkin temperatures, Snow-water-equivalent
Surface heave and subsidence
Ground m
easurements
Model driver
Surface + subsurface temperaturesFrost heave + thaw subsidence
Soil moistureClimatology
Geophysical measurements
Permafrost Watch
www.permafrostwatch.org
Operational Deliverables
Permafrost Lab
www.permafrostwatch.org
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Acknowledgements
This research has been funded by NASA (NASANNG06GH48G), and by the State of Alaska