Our Shared Vision:“To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water
resources”
Our Shared Vision:“To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water
resources”
NBI Role in Facing Energy NBI Role in Facing Energy Security Challenges in the Security Challenges in the
Nile BasinNile Basin
Mekong 2 Rio+20 IntMekong 2 Rio+20 Int’’l Conferencel Conference
On transboundary river basin managementPhuket, Thailand(1-3) May 2012
Wael Khairy, Ph.D.Wael Khairy, Ph.D.
Executive DirectorNile Basin Initiative Secretariat
Entebbe, Uganda
Our Shared Vision:“To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water
resources”
Contents• Main Features of the River Nile
• Key Nile Basin Challenges – Focus on Power Sector
• Nile Basin Opportunities
• NBI Progress (1999 – 2012)
• NBI Power Agenda – Focus Areas:– Technical Assistance
– Regional Dialogue
– Infrastructure Power Development
– Regional Studies & Research in Power Sector
• Challenges toward achieving Energy Security
• Lessons and Experiences Learnt from NBI
• The Nexus Perspectives in the Case of NBI2
276 INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS
River Nile Basin at negotiation Longstanding, Growing Demand, Regional Cooperation, On-going-Investments 3
• Burundi• DRC• Eretria• Egypt• Ethiopia• Kenya• Rwanda• The Sudan• South Sudan• Tanzania• Uganda
Atbara
Blue Nile
EquatorialLakes
Bahr Ghazal
White Nile
Main Nile
4
Rwanda
S. Sudan
D.R.
Eretria
The Nile Basin
5
The Nile BasinThe Nile Basin• Africa’s largest river basin by area• Area: 3.25 Million Km2 (10% Africa)• Length: 6,695 Km• Main Tributaries: White Nile & Blue Nile
• Population: 232 Million (within NB)• High Spatial Variability; nearly half semi‐arid and
arid• Water scarce; large parts do not generate runoff; low
runoff coefficient in parts generating runoff; • High seasonal variability in Blue Nile• Mean annual discharge 84 BCM (17% Congo; 1.5% of
Amazon)
Water Sources of the Nile River
Ethiopian Plateau
85%
Equatorial Lakes Plateau
15%
Sudd /Swamps
544 billion/yr
0.0%
Rainfall1661 BCM/year
Surface Flow (at Aswan )
84 BCM/year
Losses94.94 %
6
Extreme PovertyInstabilityRapid Population GrowthEnvironmental degradationNatural disasters (Floods, Droughts, ….etc)Complicated hydrology of BasinLack of managementLow land productivityClimate Change
77
•Existing facilities account for 26% of potential capacity•Main schemes are Aswan, Merowe, Tekeze, Roseires, Tis Bay, Tana-Beles, Jebej Aulia, and Owen Falls
8
* Source: Opportunities for Power Trade in the Nile Basin, Final Report, NBI,2012 9
Country HEP as % of Inst. capacity
Burundi 89
D R Congo 99
Egypt 12
Ethiopia 95
Eritrea 0
Kenya 50
Rwanda 33
Sudan 49
Tanzania 47
Uganda 85
Hydropower Potential in Hydropower Potential in the Nile Basinthe Nile Basin
Congo river drops some 96m over a stretch of 15km The Grand Inga Hydropower station will have a total capacity of 39,000 MW
Extract from the NBI’s River Nile
State of the Basin Report, 2012
Power Status - Nile Region
• ~7.0 Million sq km• Over 424 million people• Regional average power
demand, growth rate close to 7.5% p.a (11% for upstream countries)
• Average access to electricity less 20%, excluding Egypt >99%
• Hydropower potential in excess of 150GW less than 5% is exploited and more than 50% is only known at inventory level – few detailed studies
• Other energy resources: geothermal, oil, gas & wind 11
12
Extract from the NBI’s River Nile
State of the Basin Report, 2012
Severe power supply uncertainties, increasing power demand, and inability to raise adequate capital for projects.
Reliance of expensive emergency power (at >US$12cts/kWh) frustrates socioeconomic development efforts; most potential sites identified has <US$3 cts/kWh in generation cost.
Lack of cumulative-impact monitoring and management serious environmental degradation.
Lack of facilities for technology transfer and sustaining capacity building.
Weak isolated power networks
Weak intra-country transmission system limiting benefits of electricity wheeling and may contribute to frequent cascade interruptions if informed decisions are not taken before grid integration.
13
Shared Vision:
The Nile Basin InitiativeThe Nile Basin Initiative““To achieve sustainable
socio-economic development through the equitable
utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin
water resources””
14
1999 1999 ‐‐ A New Era for the Nile Basin CountriesA New Era for the Nile Basin CountriesThe Nile Basin InitiativeThe Nile Basin Initiative
Shared VisionShared Vision
Action on the groundAction on the ground
Shared Vision Program
Shared Vision: to achieve sustainable socio‐economic development through
equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources.
Subsidiary Action ProgramTo
realize
13yrs
15
NBI NBI Stages of EvolutionStages of Evolution
• NBI is entering a third phase in its evolution• USD 312 Million (1999‐2012)• ‘Delivering Phase’ USD 1.2 Billion• Nile Basin Countries have started to realize real benefits from NBI’s investment projects
• NBI proved that it achieved significant results and values for money
ESTABLISHMENT and CONFIDENCE BUILDING
INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING
CONSOLIDATION and DELIVERING
1999 2008 2012 2016
OUR LIFEOUR LIFE
16
• Assists its MS to identify development opportunities, prepare projects, & seek investments.• Development programs ‐ 3 priorities : 1) power trade and generation, 2) agriculture, and 3) river basin and watershed management.
Water Resource Management Program• Provides its MS with analytic tools, shared knowledge bases, information systems• Capable of monitoring and sustainably managing the basin’s water resources.
Water Resource Development Program
Facilitating Cooperation Program• BVI is a unique platform for dialogue • Nurture cooperation• Convenes the Nile Governance meetings
NBI Business NBI Business –– Our Core Functions:Our Core Functions:
17
www.nilebasin.orgwww.nilebasin.orgCorporate Corporate
Management Management FunctionsFunctions
NBINBI‐‐SAPs: Portfolio of ProjectsSAPs: Portfolio of ProjectsT
hree
K
ey S
ecto
rs
Power
River Basin Management
Agriculture
Till end of 2011: $950 M for investment
projects in the Nile Basin
utilizing $150 M in pre‐investment
financing(NBTF & Bi‐lat)
NBI numerous investments
turning $1 into $10
(1:10)
18
(EN-SAP & NEL-SAP)
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
Mill US $
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Years
Total ENSAP & NELSAP Pre-investment and Investment Financing as at June, 2011
Preinvestment Financing (actual & projected) Investment Financing (actual & projected)
Overview of NBI Investment FinancingOverview of NBI Investment FinancingWater Resource Development Programs
Establishm
ent a
nd
Confiden
ce Building
Institu
tiona
l Strengthen
ing
Consolidation an
d Delivering
Actual
Projected
19
The NBI Power Agenda: The NBI Power Agenda: Focus Areas
Technical Assistance - supporting a conducive environment of Power Trade and Market operations through Regional Capacity Building programs
Promoting Regional Dialogue – building trust & confidence for cooperation in power infrastructure development
Facilitating Infrastructure Development - for power trade by promoting regional power investment projects/programs (complementing countries interests) and spearheading resource mobilization
Regional Studies and Research – undertaking resource identification and preparation of power options into feasible projects, and devising mitigation measures to address cumulative impacts.
Facilitating Infrastructure DevelopmentFacilitating Infrastructure DevelopmentDespite significant challenges, the NBI has played a key role in advancing power integration in the region through its Subsidiary Action Programs.
In the Eastern Nile Sub-region:Construction of Euro 55.8 Mill, 230 kV interconnector between Sudan and Ethiopia is completed
Feasibility study of the estimated US$1.86 Mill Egypt‐Sudan‐Ethiopia interconnector is completed and currently under review.
Progress has been made on development studies for Mandaya, Border, Dal, & Beko Abo on the Blue Nile.
Progress on JMP Stage 1 studies (SSEA) on‐going.
The HV DC Link between Ethiopia and Kenya edges closure to realization.
Mandaya siteMandaya site
Beko Abo siteBeko Abo site
In the NEL-SAP Sub-region:Interconnection of grids of six NEL Countries of Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda is in‐progress (USD 400 Mill):
o Regional Project Coordination Unit and project offices established
o Works are in advanced stageso USD 365 Mill mobilized for the interconnectors.o Training, capacity building, & awareness ongoing
Implementation structure for the Regional Rusumo Falls Multipurpose Project has been concluded and preparatory activities for the pre‐construction phase has begun (cost USD 450)
The Kenya‐Tanzania interconnection feasibility study & ESIA is nearing completion. Extension to South Sudan is planned.
Preparation for a number of new hydropower projects identified (NBI CBWS) resource mobilization.
Rusumo MHP Site
Ruzizi III Site 145 MW
The Ministers display the signed Tripartite Agreement - Hon William Ngeleja, Tanzania; Hon. Emma Francoise Isumbinagabo, Rwanda; and Hon Come Manirakiza, Burundi
Launching the Implementation of the Regional Rusumo Launching the Implementation of the Regional Rusumo Falls Multipurpose Project Falls Multipurpose Project (Feb., 2012)(Feb., 2012)
The Comprehensive BasinThe Comprehensive Basin--wide Study wide Study • CBWS is (35‐yrs span) to analyze electricity demand and supply
balance at regional level taking all MS in their entirety, as well as non‐NBI MS form part of the Eastern Africa Region (e.g., Djibouti).
• The study provides an informative tool for identification and preparation of potential power projects from a portfolio of best options (evaluated: multi‐criteria techniques and risk analysis)
• The study has taken cognizance of the need to plan hydropower development in the context of multipurpose use of water resources to maximise benefits and minimise negative cumulative impacts.
• CBWS also proposed a robust transmission Back-bone to ensure adequacy and reliability of power supply as well as maximizing the inherent opportunities presented by the vast energy resource mixin the region.
Nile Basin Regional Power Interconnection by 2015
SUDAN
260
260 MW
ETHIOPIA
50 MW
DJIBOUTI1000 MW
UGANDA156 MW
166 MW KENYA115 MW
14 MW
25 MW
TANZANIADR CONGO
485 MW150 MW
8 MW
ERITREA
Nile Basin Regional Power Interconnection by 2025
Regional Power Development - Hydro Generation Options on-line 2000- 2020Planning Period
Option Country MW Proposed Next
Est Total Const Cost $M
Est.Proj Prep Cost $M
Gibe III ET 1,170 ConstGenale III ET 254 ConstC Yeda 1 & 2 ET 280 ConstGeba 1 & 2 ET 372 ConstDinder SU 135 ConstBujagali UG 250 Const
Sub-Total 2,461
Ruzizi III BU/DRC/RW 145 T/C 350 0.5Rusumo BU/RW/TZ 60 T/C 450 0.5Ruzizi IV BU/DRC/RW 288 F/D 556 2.3Semeliki DRC 72 F/D 60 1Bebeba DRC 50 F/D 148 1Bengamisa DRC 50 F/D 152 1Miko DRC 54 F/D 158 1Kisangani DRC 468 F/D 898 4.5Busanga DRC 224 F/D 506 2.2Wanie R DRC 688 F/D 1,950 6.9Tekeze 2 ET 450 F/D 544 4.5Halele W ET 326 T/C 386 0.5High G. Fall KE 400 T/C 2,690 0.5Bedden SSU 400 T/C 1,194 0.5Ruhidji TZ 358 T/C 764 0.5Karuma UG 600 T/C 2,320 0.5
Sub-Total 4,633 13,126 27.9Note: Regional Demand in 2010 is 30,000MW rising to 44,000 MW by 2015 and 64,000MW by 2020T/C = Tender & Construction ; F/D = Feasibility & Detailed Design; Const = Under Construction
2010 - 2015
2015-2020
Regional Interconnectors in Service2010 - 2020
Interconnection between countries
Capacity[MW]
Distance[km]
Voltage [kV]
TechnologyInvestments
[Mill $US]Year inservice
Uganda - Kenya 300 254 220 AC
NELSAP Ongoing Trans Projects ~USD
400M
2014
Uganda - Rwanda 300 172 220 AC 2014
Rwanda - DRC 400 68 220 AC 2014
Rwanda - Burundi 300 103 220 AC 2014
Tanzania - Kenya 1500 260 400 AC 210 2015
Ethiopia - Kenya 2000 1120 500 DC 1022 2015
Uganda - DR Congo 300 185 220 AC 56 2015
Total 1,668 Add 1,288
Ethiopia - Kenya 2000 1120 500 DC 1022 2020
Sudan - Egypt 2000 1665 600 DC 1358 2020
DRC - Burundi 300 105 220 AC 31 2020
Burundi - Rwanda 300 186 220 AC 56 2020
Uganda - Sudan 1000 200 400 AC 115 2020
Total 3,276 2,582
Challenges toward achieving Energy Challenges toward achieving Energy SecuritySecurity
• The huge resource gap exists between what’s needed to realize and what can be mobilized through public debt.
• Must use untraditional resource mobilization mechanisms to raise the required capital in a short time.
• Trans-boundary projects on shared resources are complex and are governed by sophisticated contractual agreements; these projects also introduce new advanced technologies in the region need to continue building adequate human capacity & 1st SPV.
• Need for stronger coordination and collaboration among countries to make a regional power market and cross-border exchanges feasible and beneficial to the Nile citizensdevelop a framework for joint implementation and exploitation of generation and transmission facilities.
Lessons & Experiences Learnt (1/3)Lessons & Experiences Learnt (1/3)NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile
RegionRegion• NBI with its regional intergovernmental nature & political will plays a
pivotal role in responding to its MS demands toward facing energy security challenges
• Despite significant challenges, NBI is capable for advancing power integration in the Nile Region
• A RBO like NBI which is designed with two implementing arms (SAPs) becomes more strong and efficient in planning, preparing, identifying, designing, facilitating, and supporting its MS to mobilize for implementing power development projects with regional value
• NBI with its programs targeting power systems conceptualization,implementation and marketing is greatly complementing power development efforts by its MS
• The four components of “NBI Power Agenda” : Technical Assistance, Promoting Regional Dialogue, Facilitating Infrastructure Development & Regional Studies and Research, are perfectly responding to the gaps and needs in the Nile Region
• NBI has strong capacity and capability to facilitate and deliver large, complex, capital intensive trans-boundary power infrastructure projects
• NBI acts as an interface with other power regional entities EGL, EAC, EAPP, & RECs in Africa
• NBI considers a balance between power development targets and environmental & social considerations, while planning for power-schemes in the Nile Region
• NBI-CBWS provides an informative tool for identification and preparation of potential power projects and takes cognizance of the need to plan hydropower development in the context of multipurpose use of water resources to maximize benefits & minimize negative cumulative impacts
Lessons & Experiences Learnt (2/3)Lessons & Experiences Learnt (2/3)NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile RegionNBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region
• Power infrastructure development and establishment of a competitiveelectricity market are central to sustainable socioeconomic development and transformation of the Nile Region into a vibrant green economy.
• The consortium of NBI, its Development Partners, & other power development initiatives in the region, continues to provide the necessary leadership for regional power development.
• Finally; an accepted basin-wide power development strategy through NBI allows for greater efficiencies in the utilization of shared resources, and sustains regional dialogue and trust amongst Nile riparians and citizens.
Lessons & Experiences Learnt (3/3)Lessons & Experiences Learnt (3/3)NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile RegionNBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region
• Regional Active Dialogue Platform (transboundary dimension)
• Sustainable socioeconomic development (e.g., maintaining the overall sustainability in the shared basin: social, environmental, economic, ecosystem, biodiversity)
• Full actors engagements (Governments, Donors, Participating Institutions, Public, Private Sector, CSOs)
• Multi-purpose approach (Basin Master-planning)
• Resilient solutions (disasters) & viable interventions (WRW&D)
• Strengthening water, energy & food security nexus
Nexus Perspectives in the Case of NBINexus Perspectives in the Case of NBItoward Water, Food, Energy Securitytoward Water, Food, Energy Security
in Nile Regionin Nile Region
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
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