Our Shared Vision:“To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water

resources”

Our Shared Vision:“To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water

resources”

NBI Role in Facing Energy NBI Role in Facing Energy Security Challenges in the Security Challenges in the

Nile BasinNile Basin

Mekong 2 Rio+20 IntMekong 2 Rio+20 Int’’l Conferencel Conference

On transboundary river basin managementPhuket, Thailand(1-3) May 2012

Wael Khairy, Ph.D.Wael Khairy, Ph.D.

Executive DirectorNile Basin Initiative Secretariat

Entebbe, Uganda

Our Shared Vision:“To achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water

resources”

Contents• Main Features of the River Nile

• Key Nile Basin Challenges – Focus on Power Sector

• Nile Basin Opportunities

• NBI Progress (1999 – 2012)

• NBI Power Agenda – Focus Areas:– Technical Assistance

– Regional Dialogue

– Infrastructure Power Development

– Regional Studies & Research in Power Sector

• Challenges toward achieving Energy Security

• Lessons and Experiences Learnt from NBI

• The Nexus Perspectives in the Case of NBI2

276 INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS

River Nile Basin at negotiation Longstanding, Growing Demand, Regional Cooperation, On-going-Investments 3

• Burundi• DRC• Eretria• Egypt• Ethiopia• Kenya• Rwanda• The Sudan• South Sudan• Tanzania• Uganda

Atbara

Blue Nile

EquatorialLakes

Bahr Ghazal

White Nile

Main Nile

4

Rwanda

S. Sudan

D.R.

Eretria

The Nile Basin

5

The Nile BasinThe Nile Basin• Africa’s largest river basin by area• Area: 3.25 Million Km2 (10% Africa)• Length: 6,695 Km• Main Tributaries: White Nile & Blue Nile

• Population: 232 Million (within NB)• High Spatial Variability;  nearly half semi‐arid and 

arid• Water scarce; large parts do not generate runoff; low 

runoff coefficient in parts generating runoff; • High seasonal variability in Blue Nile• Mean annual discharge 84 BCM (17% Congo; 1.5% of 

Amazon)

Water Sources of the Nile River

Ethiopian Plateau

85%

Equatorial Lakes Plateau

15%

Sudd /Swamps

544 billion/yr

0.0%

Rainfall1661 BCM/year

Surface Flow (at Aswan )

84 BCM/year

Losses94.94 %

6

Extreme PovertyInstabilityRapid Population GrowthEnvironmental degradationNatural disasters (Floods, Droughts, ….etc)Complicated hydrology of BasinLack of managementLow land productivityClimate Change

77

•Existing facilities account for 26% of potential capacity•Main schemes are Aswan, Merowe, Tekeze, Roseires, Tis Bay, Tana-Beles, Jebej Aulia, and Owen Falls

8

* Source: Opportunities for Power Trade in the Nile Basin, Final Report, NBI,2012 9

Country HEP as % of Inst. capacity

Burundi 89

D R Congo 99

Egypt 12

Ethiopia 95

Eritrea 0

Kenya 50

Rwanda 33

Sudan 49

Tanzania 47

Uganda 85

Hydropower Potential in Hydropower Potential in the Nile Basinthe Nile Basin

Congo river drops some 96m over a stretch of 15km The Grand Inga Hydropower station will have a total capacity of 39,000 MW

Extract from the NBI’s River Nile

State of the Basin Report, 2012

Power Status - Nile Region

• ~7.0 Million sq km• Over 424 million people• Regional average power

demand, growth rate close to 7.5% p.a (11% for upstream countries)

• Average access to electricity less 20%, excluding Egypt >99%

• Hydropower potential in excess of 150GW less than 5% is exploited and more than 50% is only known at inventory level – few detailed studies

• Other energy resources: geothermal, oil, gas & wind 11

12

Extract from the NBI’s River Nile

State of the Basin Report, 2012

Severe power supply uncertainties, increasing power demand, and inability to raise adequate capital for projects.

Reliance of expensive emergency power (at >US$12cts/kWh) frustrates socioeconomic development efforts; most potential sites identified has <US$3 cts/kWh in generation cost.

Lack of cumulative-impact monitoring and management serious environmental degradation.

Lack of facilities for technology transfer and sustaining capacity building.

Weak isolated power networks

Weak intra-country transmission system limiting benefits of electricity wheeling and may contribute to frequent cascade interruptions if informed decisions are not taken before grid integration.

13

Shared Vision:

The Nile Basin InitiativeThe Nile Basin Initiative““To achieve sustainable

socio-economic development through the equitable

utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin

water resources””

14

1999 1999 ‐‐ A New Era for the Nile Basin CountriesA New Era for the Nile Basin CountriesThe Nile Basin InitiativeThe Nile Basin Initiative

Shared VisionShared Vision

Action on the groundAction on the ground

Shared Vision Program

Shared Vision: to achieve sustainable socio‐economic development through 

equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources.

Subsidiary Action ProgramTo

realize

13yrs

15

NBI NBI  Stages of EvolutionStages of Evolution

• NBI is entering a third phase in its evolution• USD 312 Million (1999‐2012)• ‘Delivering Phase’ USD 1.2 Billion• Nile Basin Countries have started to realize real benefits from NBI’s investment projects

• NBI proved that it achieved significant results and values for money

  ESTABLISHMENT and CONFIDENCE BUILDING 

INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING 

CONSOLIDATION and DELIVERING 

 1999                                                            2008                                           2012                                  2016 

OUR LIFEOUR LIFE

16

• Assists its MS to identify development opportunities, prepare projects, & seek investments.• Development programs ‐ 3 priorities : 1) power trade and generation, 2) agriculture, and 3) river basin and watershed management.

Water Resource Management Program• Provides its MS with analytic tools, shared knowledge bases, information systems• Capable of monitoring and sustainably managing the basin’s water resources.

Water Resource Development Program

Facilitating Cooperation Program• BVI is a unique platform for dialogue • Nurture cooperation• Convenes the Nile Governance meetings

NBI Business NBI Business –– Our Core Functions:Our Core Functions:

17

www.nilebasin.orgwww.nilebasin.orgCorporate Corporate 

Management Management FunctionsFunctions

NBINBI‐‐SAPs: Portfolio of ProjectsSAPs: Portfolio of ProjectsT

hree

K

ey S

ecto

rs

Power

River Basin Management

Agriculture

Till end of 2011: $950 M for investment 

projects in the Nile Basin 

utilizing $150 M in pre‐investment 

financing(NBTF & Bi‐lat)

NBI numerous investments 

turning $1 into $10

(1:10)

18

(EN-SAP & NEL-SAP)

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

Mill US $

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Years

Total ENSAP & NELSAP Pre-investment and Investment Financing as at June, 2011

Preinvestment Financing (actual & projected) Investment Financing (actual & projected)

Overview of NBI Investment FinancingOverview of NBI Investment FinancingWater Resource Development Programs 

Establishm

ent a

nd 

Confiden

ce Building

Institu

tiona

l Strengthen

ing

Consolidation an

d Delivering

Actual

Projected

19

The NBI Power Agenda: The NBI Power Agenda: Focus Areas

Technical Assistance - supporting a conducive environment of Power Trade and Market operations through Regional Capacity Building programs

Promoting Regional Dialogue – building trust & confidence for cooperation in power infrastructure development

Facilitating Infrastructure Development - for power trade by promoting regional power investment projects/programs (complementing countries interests) and spearheading resource mobilization 

Regional Studies and Research – undertaking resource identification and preparation of power options into feasible projects, and devising mitigation measures to address cumulative impacts.

Facilitating Infrastructure DevelopmentFacilitating Infrastructure DevelopmentDespite significant challenges, the NBI has played a key role in advancing power integration in the region through its Subsidiary Action Programs.

In the Eastern Nile Sub-region:Construction of  Euro 55.8 Mill, 230 kV interconnector between Sudan and Ethiopia is completed

Feasibility study of the estimated US$1.86 Mill Egypt‐Sudan‐Ethiopia interconnector is completed and currently under review. 

Progress has been made on development studies for Mandaya, Border, Dal, & Beko Abo on the Blue Nile.

Progress on JMP Stage 1 studies (SSEA) on‐going.

The HV DC Link between Ethiopia and Kenya edges closure to realization.

Mandaya siteMandaya site

Beko Abo siteBeko Abo site

In the NEL-SAP Sub-region:Interconnection of grids of six NEL Countries of Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda is in‐progress (USD 400 Mill): 

o Regional Project Coordination Unit and project offices established

o Works are in advanced stageso USD 365 Mill mobilized for the interconnectors.o Training, capacity building, & awareness ongoing

Implementation structure for the Regional Rusumo Falls Multipurpose Project has been concluded and preparatory activities for the pre‐construction phase has begun (cost USD 450) 

The Kenya‐Tanzania interconnection feasibility study  & ESIA is nearing completion. Extension to South Sudan is planned.

Preparation for a number of new hydropower projects identified (NBI CBWS)  resource mobilization.

Rusumo MHP Site

Ruzizi III Site 145 MW

The Ministers display the signed Tripartite Agreement - Hon William Ngeleja, Tanzania; Hon. Emma Francoise Isumbinagabo, Rwanda; and Hon Come Manirakiza, Burundi

Launching the Implementation of the Regional Rusumo Launching the Implementation of the Regional Rusumo Falls Multipurpose Project Falls Multipurpose Project (Feb., 2012)(Feb., 2012)

The Comprehensive BasinThe Comprehensive Basin--wide Study wide Study • CBWS is (35‐yrs span) to analyze electricity demand and supply 

balance at regional level taking all MS in their entirety, as well as non‐NBI MS form part of the Eastern Africa Region (e.g., Djibouti). 

• The study provides an informative tool for identification and preparation of potential power projects from a portfolio of best options (evaluated: multi‐criteria techniques and risk analysis)

• The study has taken cognizance of the need to plan hydropower development in the context of multipurpose use of water resources to maximise benefits and minimise negative cumulative impacts.

• CBWS also proposed a robust transmission Back-bone to ensure adequacy and reliability of power supply as well as maximizing the inherent opportunities presented by the vast energy resource mixin the region.

Nile Basin Regional Power Interconnection by 2015

SUDAN

260

260 MW

ETHIOPIA

50 MW

DJIBOUTI1000 MW

UGANDA156 MW

166 MW KENYA115 MW

14 MW

25 MW

TANZANIADR CONGO

485 MW150 MW

8 MW

ERITREA

Nile Basin Regional Power Interconnection by 2025

Regional Power Development - Hydro Generation Options on-line 2000- 2020Planning Period

Option Country MW Proposed Next

Est Total Const Cost $M

Est.Proj Prep Cost $M

Gibe III ET 1,170 ConstGenale III ET 254 ConstC Yeda 1 & 2 ET 280 ConstGeba 1 & 2 ET 372 ConstDinder SU 135 ConstBujagali UG 250 Const

Sub-Total 2,461

Ruzizi III BU/DRC/RW 145 T/C 350 0.5Rusumo BU/RW/TZ 60 T/C 450 0.5Ruzizi IV BU/DRC/RW 288 F/D 556 2.3Semeliki DRC 72 F/D 60 1Bebeba DRC 50 F/D 148 1Bengamisa DRC 50 F/D 152 1Miko DRC 54 F/D 158 1Kisangani DRC 468 F/D 898 4.5Busanga DRC 224 F/D 506 2.2Wanie R DRC 688 F/D 1,950 6.9Tekeze 2 ET 450 F/D 544 4.5Halele W ET 326 T/C 386 0.5High G. Fall KE 400 T/C 2,690 0.5Bedden SSU 400 T/C 1,194 0.5Ruhidji TZ 358 T/C 764 0.5Karuma UG 600 T/C 2,320 0.5

Sub-Total 4,633 13,126 27.9Note: Regional Demand in 2010 is 30,000MW rising to 44,000 MW by 2015 and 64,000MW by 2020T/C = Tender & Construction ; F/D = Feasibility & Detailed Design; Const = Under Construction

2010 - 2015

2015-2020

Regional Interconnectors in Service2010 - 2020

Interconnection between countries

Capacity[MW]

Distance[km]

Voltage [kV]

TechnologyInvestments

[Mill $US]Year inservice

Uganda - Kenya 300 254 220 AC

NELSAP Ongoing Trans Projects ~USD

400M

2014

Uganda - Rwanda 300 172 220 AC 2014

Rwanda - DRC 400 68 220 AC 2014

Rwanda - Burundi 300 103 220 AC 2014

Tanzania - Kenya 1500 260 400 AC 210 2015

Ethiopia - Kenya 2000 1120 500 DC 1022 2015

Uganda - DR Congo 300 185 220 AC 56 2015

Total 1,668 Add 1,288

Ethiopia - Kenya 2000 1120 500 DC 1022 2020

Sudan - Egypt 2000 1665 600 DC 1358 2020

DRC - Burundi 300 105 220 AC 31 2020

Burundi - Rwanda 300 186 220 AC 56 2020

Uganda - Sudan 1000 200 400 AC 115 2020

Total 3,276 2,582

Challenges toward achieving Energy Challenges toward achieving Energy SecuritySecurity

• The huge resource gap exists between what’s needed to realize and what can be mobilized through public debt.

• Must use untraditional resource mobilization mechanisms to raise the required capital in a short time.

• Trans-boundary projects on shared resources are complex and are governed by sophisticated contractual agreements; these projects also introduce new advanced technologies in the region need to continue building adequate human capacity & 1st SPV.

• Need for stronger coordination and collaboration among countries to make a regional power market and cross-border exchanges feasible and beneficial to the Nile citizensdevelop a framework for joint implementation and exploitation of generation and transmission facilities.

Lessons & Experiences Learnt (1/3)Lessons & Experiences Learnt (1/3)NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile

RegionRegion• NBI with its regional intergovernmental nature & political will plays a

pivotal role in responding to its MS demands toward facing energy security challenges

• Despite significant challenges, NBI is capable for advancing power integration in the Nile Region

• A RBO like NBI which is designed with two implementing arms (SAPs) becomes more strong and efficient in planning, preparing, identifying, designing, facilitating, and supporting its MS to mobilize for implementing power development projects with regional value

• NBI with its programs targeting power systems conceptualization,implementation and marketing is greatly complementing power development efforts by its MS

• The four components of “NBI Power Agenda” : Technical Assistance, Promoting Regional Dialogue, Facilitating Infrastructure Development & Regional Studies and Research, are perfectly responding to the gaps and needs in the Nile Region

• NBI has strong capacity and capability to facilitate and deliver large, complex, capital intensive trans-boundary power infrastructure projects

• NBI acts as an interface with other power regional entities EGL, EAC, EAPP, & RECs in Africa

• NBI considers a balance between power development targets and environmental & social considerations, while planning for power-schemes in the Nile Region

• NBI-CBWS provides an informative tool for identification and preparation of potential power projects and takes cognizance of the need to plan hydropower development in the context of multipurpose use of water resources to maximize benefits & minimize negative cumulative impacts

Lessons & Experiences Learnt (2/3)Lessons & Experiences Learnt (2/3)NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile RegionNBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region

• Power infrastructure development and establishment of a competitiveelectricity market are central to sustainable socioeconomic development and transformation of the Nile Region into a vibrant green economy.

• The consortium of NBI, its Development Partners, & other power development initiatives in the region, continues to provide the necessary leadership for regional power development.

• Finally; an accepted basin-wide power development strategy through NBI allows for greater efficiencies in the utilization of shared resources, and sustains regional dialogue and trust amongst Nile riparians and citizens.

Lessons & Experiences Learnt (3/3)Lessons & Experiences Learnt (3/3)NBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile RegionNBI Role toward Energy Security in Nile Region

• Regional Active Dialogue Platform (transboundary dimension)

• Sustainable socioeconomic development (e.g., maintaining the overall sustainability in the shared basin: social, environmental, economic, ecosystem, biodiversity)

• Full actors engagements (Governments, Donors, Participating Institutions, Public, Private Sector, CSOs)

• Multi-purpose approach (Basin Master-planning)

• Resilient solutions (disasters) & viable interventions (WRW&D)

• Strengthening water, energy & food security nexus

Nexus Perspectives in the Case of NBINexus Perspectives in the Case of NBItoward Water, Food, Energy Securitytoward Water, Food, Energy Security

in Nile Regionin Nile Region

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

www.nilebasin.orgwww.nilebasin.org