NAFTA AND EXPANDING TALENT MOBILITY IN FTAS: AN EMPLOYER
PERSPECTIVE Stephen Cryne President & CEO
Canadian Employee Relocation Council Toronto, Canada
Metropolis North America Migration Policy Forum
November 16 – 17 Arlington VA
About CERCThe Force of Change in Employee Mobility “Working to impact the systems, policies and processes that enable employers to move the right people effectively and efficiently.”
ResearchProfessional DevelopmentKnowledge Transfer Government Relations
A Globally Recognized Thought Leadership Organization
Why we need mobility.....
Megatrends
Globalization 2.0
Demographic Change
Individualism and Value
Knowledge Based Economy
Technology & the Digital Age
Changing Work Patterns Organizational Change
Leadership 2030 The Hay Group
?
Globalization
Demographic Realities
US Population Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
18-64 yrs 65+ yrs
Population Growth By Age (Year-over-Year, %)
CIBC World Markets NOV 2017
Canada Demographic Realities
Individualism Customization is King
Knowledge Economy
Technology and the Digital Age
Source: Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017)
Talent Mobility is Key
What CEOs Think
What CEOs Think
NAFTA
NAFTA Closest Partners
NAFTA: Closest Partners
Philosophy
Fact or Fiction
Fact
Fact or Fiction“We lose with Canada — big‐league. Tremendous, tremendous trade deficits with Canada. This is the worst agreement ever signed.”
“We can’t let Canada…take advantage and do what they did to our workers and farmers… I want to just mention included in there is lumber, timber and energy”
Fact
https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/08/16/103871859‐IMG_5181.1910x1000.JPG
Wilbur Ross commerce secretary
Fact• Annual Canada ‐ U.S. trade and investment $1.4 trillion • Trade = $760 b / yr. $2 b / day or $1 m/ minute • U.S. exports to Canada support over 8 million jobs (5% of
U.S. workforce)• Canada exports to U.S. support – about 2.5 million jobs (13%
of CDN workforce)• Mobility of personnel is critical to that trading relationship
Cross border challenges
Cross border challenges• Inconsistent decision making by border officials was identified as the most common reason for delays crossing the border:– 67% of employers cited this as a cause of delays for employees entering Canada from the U.S.
– 76% cited this for employees entering into the U.S. from Canada.
Cross border challenges
• 68% of employers reported compliance with immigration regulations;• 60% reported understanding when a business entry visa, as opposed to a work permit, is required under the law;
• 58% reported differing rules between the two jurisdictions; and,• 46% reported access to reliable information on immigration requirements.
Cross border challenges• Employers also feel that border officials lack sufficient training and resources to effectively and expeditiously adjudicate applications for entry:– 46% of employers feel Canadian border officials lack sufficient training; and,
– 58% feel U.S. border officials lack sufficient training.
NAFTA Professionals ListHuman Resources and business professionals (such as marketing, business development and sales executives);Professionals in finance and financial services; economists and accountantsIT professionals, including computer/software engineers, analysts and designers; technical program managers; Software development managers; UX designers; Web development engineers; technology professionals in quality assurance and development; programming engineers; CAD designers. Scientific technologistsProject managers, including controllers and construction managersConstruction related occupations, (engineers, supervisors and maintenance managers, technicians and construction project managers, estimators and project controls), skilled trades’ workers (electricians, welders and fabricators) Management consultants Senior executives, managers and directors, including plant and operations managers Occupations in graphic design, including illustrators, animators, riggers and texture artists
NAFTA Professionals List Senior executives, managers and directors, including plant and operations managers Specialized knowledge workers (and those without the requisite one year of employment with the company, or a post graduate degree)Technicians and specialists including, surveyors, archaeology field workers, driver technicians for hazardous goods and specialized equipment operators; confined space specialists, instrument technicians; health safety and environmental specialistsOccupations in health sciences and other related science fields, including healthcare, (technicians, clinical researchers, research assistants, therapists and scientists in new fields of molecular biology, nanotechnology and computational science) medical residents, clinical fellows, visiting researcher, interns, clinical medical specialists, physicists, registered nurses and related nursing profession occupations, food scientists, environmental scientistsDesigners and specialist occupations in fashion and design industry, including fashion designers, technical designers, textile designers, production managers, sourcing managers (raw materials, fabrics, etc.), fabric development, product developer, technical developers, creative directors
Key recommendations • Trade NAFTA (TN) Occupations list should be thoroughly updated
and expanded to reflect the occupations of a modern economy, including technical and managerial occupations.
• The parties should establish a formal mechanism to review and update the TN Occupations annually.
• Take steps to improve program administration, through training, communication and education initiatives.
• Expand programs such as the ‘Known Employer Pilot Program’ to improve efficiency and predictability.
• Joint CERC CFGI policy recommendations to USTR June 2017
© 2017 Ipsos 31
BUT WILL THEY MOVE:LIKELIHOOD TO CONSIDER MOVING FOR A NEW JOB IN
ANOTHER COUNTRY
CERC Global Mobility Poll
CERC Global Mobility Poll
CERC Global Mobility Poll
CERC Global Mobility Poll
• FL2a_3. How likely would you be to consider moving for a new job in another country if you could have a minimum 10% increase in your pay and all your moving expenses covered if you had... To temporary relocate for up to 2 years. Base: All Respondents (n=10,091)
• *Note the question changed since 2012.*
To Temporary Relocate For Up To 2 YearsLikelihood To Move To Another Country
18%37%35%35%30%22%19%20%23%15%8%9%19%15%13%13%18%11%10%10%9%
27%29%
28%27%
31%32%
34%31%
26%29%
35%33%
23%26%
28%26%
21%28%26%18%
17%
46%66%
62%62%61%
53%52%51%
49%44%43%42%42%41%40%40%39%39%
36%28%
26%
TotalBrazil
South AfricaMexico
ArgentinaTurkeyIndiaItaly
RussiaPoland
South KoreaChina
CanadaAustraliaFranceSpain
USGreat Britain
GermanyNetherlands
Japan
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Top2Box (Very Likely/Somewhat Likely) 2012 Change57% ‐11%
56% 10%
66% ‐4%
77% ‐15%
59% 2%
74% ‐21%
70% ‐18%
52% ‐1%
66% ‐17%
59% ‐15%
57% ‐14%
66% ‐24%
46% ‐4%
47% ‐6%
44% ‐4%
59% ‐19%
48% ‐9%
52% ‐13%
46% ‐10%
n/a n/a
36% ‐10%
© 2017 Ipsos 37
TOP COUNTRIES TO RELOCATE
CERC Global Mobility Poll
CERC Global Mobility Poll
• FL3. Still assuming you had a full‐time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to?Base: All Respondents 2017 (n=10,091); All Respondents 2012 (n=12,827)
Top Countries To Relocate – Total
10%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
10%
8%
6%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
5%
4%
10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
30%
22%
19%
19%
17%
16%
14%
13%
13%
12%
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Australia
Germany
Switzerland
Spain
New Zealand
France
Italy
First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Net 2012 Net Change
34% ‐4%
20% 2%
22% ‐3%
20% ‐1%
15% 2%
16% n/c
9% 5%
12% 1%
13% n/c
11% 1%
Solutions• Strategic mobility for skilled / professional workers• Trade agreements to support more open mobility• International certification standards with preferred trading
partners• Fewer restrictions on short term business travel• Trusted employer programs to remove adjudication from POE• Alignment of tax, social security, health care, financial services• Spousal employment support
Not THE Solution
Stephen [email protected]