NAFTA AND EXPANDING TALENT MOBILITY IN FTAS: AN EMPLOYER

PERSPECTIVE Stephen Cryne President & CEO

Canadian Employee Relocation Council Toronto, Canada

Metropolis North America Migration Policy Forum

November 16 – 17 Arlington VA

About CERCThe Force of Change in Employee Mobility “Working to impact the systems, policies and processes that enable employers to move the right people effectively and efficiently.”

ResearchProfessional DevelopmentKnowledge Transfer Government Relations

A Globally Recognized Thought Leadership Organization

Why we need mobility.....

Megatrends

Globalization 2.0

Demographic Change

Individualism and Value

Knowledge Based Economy

Technology & the Digital Age

Changing Work Patterns Organizational Change

Leadership 2030 The Hay Group

?

Globalization

Demographic Realities

US Population Growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

18-64 yrs 65+ yrs

Population Growth By Age (Year-over-Year, %)

CIBC World Markets NOV 2017

Canada Demographic Realities

Individualism Customization is King

Knowledge Economy

Technology and the Digital Age

Source: Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017)

Talent Mobility is Key

What CEOs Think

What CEOs Think

NAFTA

NAFTA Closest Partners

NAFTA: Closest Partners

Philosophy

Fact or Fiction

Fact

Fact or Fiction“We lose with Canada — big‐league. Tremendous, tremendous trade deficits with Canada. This is the worst agreement ever signed.”

“We can’t let Canada…take advantage and do what they did to our workers and farmers… I want to just mention included in there is lumber, timber and energy”

Fact

https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/08/16/103871859‐IMG_5181.1910x1000.JPG

Wilbur Ross commerce secretary

Fact• Annual Canada ‐ U.S. trade and investment $1.4 trillion • Trade = $760 b / yr. $2 b / day or $1 m/ minute • U.S. exports to Canada support over 8 million jobs (5% of

U.S. workforce)• Canada exports to U.S. support – about 2.5 million jobs (13%

of CDN workforce)• Mobility of personnel is critical to that trading relationship

Cross border challenges

Cross border challenges• Inconsistent decision making by border officials was identified as the most common reason for delays crossing the border:– 67% of employers cited this as a cause of delays for employees entering Canada from the U.S.

– 76% cited this for employees entering into the U.S. from Canada.

Cross border challenges

• 68% of employers reported compliance with immigration regulations;• 60% reported understanding when a business entry visa, as opposed to a work permit, is required under the law;

• 58% reported differing rules between the two jurisdictions; and,• 46% reported access to reliable information on immigration requirements.

Cross border challenges• Employers also feel that border officials lack sufficient training and resources to effectively and expeditiously adjudicate applications for entry:– 46% of employers feel Canadian border officials lack sufficient training; and,

– 58% feel U.S. border officials lack sufficient training.

NAFTA Professionals ListHuman Resources and business professionals (such as marketing, business development and sales executives);Professionals in finance and financial services; economists and accountantsIT professionals, including computer/software engineers, analysts and designers; technical program managers; Software development managers; UX designers; Web development engineers; technology professionals in quality assurance and development; programming engineers; CAD designers. Scientific technologistsProject managers, including controllers and construction managersConstruction related occupations, (engineers, supervisors and maintenance managers, technicians and construction project managers, estimators and project controls), skilled trades’ workers (electricians, welders and fabricators) Management consultants Senior executives, managers and directors, including plant and operations managers Occupations in graphic design, including illustrators, animators, riggers and texture artists

NAFTA Professionals List Senior executives, managers and directors, including plant and operations managers Specialized knowledge workers (and those without the requisite one year of employment with the company, or a post graduate degree)Technicians and specialists including, surveyors, archaeology field workers, driver technicians for hazardous goods and specialized equipment operators; confined space specialists, instrument technicians; health safety and environmental specialistsOccupations in health sciences and other related science fields, including healthcare, (technicians, clinical researchers, research assistants, therapists and scientists in new fields of molecular biology, nanotechnology and computational science) medical residents, clinical fellows, visiting researcher, interns, clinical medical specialists, physicists, registered nurses and related nursing profession occupations, food scientists, environmental scientistsDesigners and specialist occupations in fashion and design industry, including fashion designers, technical designers, textile designers, production managers, sourcing managers (raw materials, fabrics, etc.), fabric development, product developer, technical developers, creative directors

Key recommendations • Trade NAFTA (TN) Occupations list should be thoroughly updated

and expanded to reflect the occupations of a modern economy, including technical and managerial occupations.

• The parties should establish a formal mechanism to review and update the TN Occupations annually.

• Take steps to improve program administration, through training, communication and education initiatives.

• Expand programs such as the ‘Known Employer Pilot Program’ to improve efficiency and predictability.

• Joint CERC CFGI policy recommendations to USTR June 2017

© 2017 Ipsos 31

BUT WILL THEY MOVE:LIKELIHOOD TO CONSIDER MOVING FOR A NEW JOB IN

ANOTHER COUNTRY

CERC Global Mobility Poll

CERC Global Mobility Poll

CERC Global Mobility Poll

CERC Global Mobility Poll

• FL2a_3. How likely would you be to consider moving for a new job in another country if you could have a minimum 10% increase in your pay and all your moving expenses covered if you had... To temporary relocate for up to 2 years. Base: All Respondents (n=10,091)

• *Note the question changed since 2012.*

To Temporary Relocate For Up To 2 YearsLikelihood To Move To Another Country

18%37%35%35%30%22%19%20%23%15%8%9%19%15%13%13%18%11%10%10%9%

27%29%

28%27%

31%32%

34%31%

26%29%

35%33%

23%26%

28%26%

21%28%26%18%

17%

46%66%

62%62%61%

53%52%51%

49%44%43%42%42%41%40%40%39%39%

36%28%

26%

TotalBrazil

South AfricaMexico

ArgentinaTurkeyIndiaItaly

RussiaPoland

South KoreaChina

CanadaAustraliaFranceSpain

USGreat Britain

GermanyNetherlands

Japan

Very Likely Somewhat Likely Top2Box (Very Likely/Somewhat Likely) 2012 Change57% ‐11%

56% 10%

66% ‐4%

77% ‐15%

59% 2%

74% ‐21%

70% ‐18%

52% ‐1%

66% ‐17%

59% ‐15%

57% ‐14%

66% ‐24%

46% ‐4%

47% ‐6%

44% ‐4%

59% ‐19%

48% ‐9%

52% ‐13%

46% ‐10%

n/a n/a

36% ‐10%

© 2017 Ipsos 37

TOP COUNTRIES TO RELOCATE

CERC Global Mobility Poll

CERC Global Mobility Poll

• FL3. Still assuming you had a full‐time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to?Base: All Respondents 2017 (n=10,091); All Respondents 2012 (n=12,827)

Top Countries To Relocate – Total

10%

7%

7%

6%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

10%

8%

6%

7%

6%

5%

5%

4%

5%

4%

10%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

30%

22%

19%

19%

17%

16%

14%

13%

13%

12%

United States

Canada

United Kingdom

Australia

Germany

Switzerland

Spain

New Zealand

France

Italy

First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Net 2012 Net Change

34% ‐4%

20% 2%

22% ‐3%

20% ‐1%

15% 2%

16% n/c

9% 5%

12% 1%

13% n/c

11% 1%

Solutions• Strategic mobility for skilled / professional workers• Trade agreements to support more open mobility• International certification standards with preferred trading

partners• Fewer restrictions on short term business travel• Trusted employer programs to remove adjudication from POE• Alignment of tax, social security, health care, financial services• Spousal employment support

Not THE Solution

Stephen Crynescryne@cerc.ca