Download - Modeling Larval Connectivity for the SoCal Bight Satoshi Mitarai, James Watson & David Siegel
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Modeling Larval Connectivity for the SoCal Bight
Satoshi Mitarai, James Watson & David Siegel
Institute for Computational Earth System Science
University of California, Santa Barbara
Changming Dong & James McWilliams
Institute of Geophysical and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of California, Los Angeles
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Why Larval Connectivity?• Some places are better fishing than others
– Habitat type & quality, oceanographic connection to other
sites, humankind history, etc.
• Larval connectivity measures the probability that
sites are connected for a given species
– Measures larval source / sink characteristics
– Required for spatial demographic stock models
– Provides scales of connectivity for MPA network design
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Why Model Larval Connectivity?
• Knowledge of how larvae are transported
from one site to any other on all time scales
• Need continuous descriptions of velocity on
time scales from hours to decades
• Data sets are just getting to this point
• Models naturally integrate over all scales
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December 14, 2008
HF Radar Current Observations
HF radar surface currents
0.5 to 6.5 km resolution
coverage is getting better
www.sccoos.org/data/hfrnet/
December 14, 2007
December 14, 2006
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Talk Outline
• Introduce the circulation model (ROMS)
configuration & its fidelity to observations
• Determine dispersal patterns for the SoCal
Bight using Lagrangian techniques
• Assess patterns of potential & realized
larval connectivity for SoCal Bight
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Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)(www.myroms.org)
One-way nested grids(~20km ~6.7km 1km)
Surface Forcing from NARR obs (MM5 18km, 6km, 2 km)
Open Boundary Forcings from obs (SODA, monthly updates)
Initialized with climatology
Integration from 1996 to 2003
Integration to present in progress
20km
6.7km
1 km
Dong & McWilliams CSR (2007)
Model Configuration
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Pacific Ocean Los Angeles
Model Domain
Dong & McWilliams CSR (2007)
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Dong et al. [in review]
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Dong et al. [in review]
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Dong et al. (in review)
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Dong et al. (in review)
Comparison to ADCP Current Profiles
Profiles from SBC
Red observationsBlue model
Dashes show stdev
Mean currents are wellmodeled
Envelope shows variability is also wellmodeled
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Topex/Jason - satellite sea level observations
Interannual Variations of Sea Level
Dong et al. (in review)
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Dong et al. (in review)
Sea level (m
)
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Dong & McWilliams (2007)
Eddy Variability
anticyclonic
cyclonic
Pattern is highly dynamic & contains most of the KE
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Dong et al. (in review)
Sea level (m
)
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Modeling of SoCal Bight Circulation
• Good fidelity of mean, seasonal & inter-annual circulation patterns
• Mean & fluctuating velocity profiles are also well modeled– Currents are fairly uniform with depth
• Eddy driven circulation is large
• Can be better… but it is best available data for the circulation of the SoCal Bight
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Connectivity Domain
Work to follow from Mitarai et al (in review - JGR) & Watson et al (in prep)
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Red dots: locations after 30 days
Example 30 Day Trajectories
Surface following…
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[ km ]-2
Dispersal from San Nicolas
millions of water parcel releases
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Dispersal from Other Sites
Advection time = 30 days
[ km ]-2
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Advection time = 30 days
Seasonal Variability
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Advection time = 30 days
Interannual Variability
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Dispersal in the SoCal Bight
• Surface water parcels spread out throughout
the Bight within 60 days
• Strong position-dependence
Poleward transport along mainland
Retention in SB Channel & around San Clemente Island
• Strong seasonal & interannual variability
Mitarai, Siegel, Watson, Dong & McWilliams (in review)
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Quantifying Connectivity
135 x 135 source-to-destination matrix (connectivity matrix)
Repeat for all source sites
Larval life history is now included (PLD, spawning period, etc.)
Quantifies probability of larval transport from site to site
Assumes all sites have equal larval production
potential connectivity
Watson, Mitarai, Caselle, Siegel, Dong & McWilliams (in prep)
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Kelp Bass Potential Connectivity
PLD = 25 – 33 d, Spawning = Apr – Nov
Connectivity is heterogeneous & asymmetric
Strong transport from mainland to islands
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Assumes uniform larval production PLD = 25-33 d; Spawning from Apr to Nov
Good Sources: Long Beach, Santa Monica, Ventura
Good Destinations: Chinese Harbor, Avalon
Kelp Bass Source / Destination Strength
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PLD = 3 – 12 days, all year around PLD = 60 – 120 days, Jan – May
The Larval Time Course Matters
Watson et al (in prep)
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Kelp Bass Realized Connectivity
• Account for non-uniform larval production
• Kelp bass egg prod from CRANE obs
Watson et al (in prep)
Mainland North South(S to N) Islands Islands
Destination Site
Sou
rce
Site
Mai
nlan
d
N
orth
S
outh
(S to
N)
Isl
ands
Isla
nds
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Larval Connectivity in the SoCal Bight
• Connectivity is heterogeneous & asymmetric
• Mainland sites are good sources while islands are
poor potential sources
• Nearby islands are often good destinations
• Potential connectivity patterns differ for different
larval time histories
• Realized connectivity patterns differ due to
differences in larval production