Irrationally Exuberant or Irrationally Exuberant or Irrationally Exuberant or Irrationally Exuberant or
Exuberantly IrrationalExuberantly IrrationalExuberantly IrrationalExuberantly Irrational
Jordan Kotick Jordan Kotick Jordan Kotick Jordan Kotick –––– Head of Global Technical Head of Global Technical Head of Global Technical Head of Global Technical
StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy
[email protected]@[email protected]@barcap.com
A behavioral finance reminder…
Equities
Change and status quo
One Question – 3 answers: What is the market?
Main Street
Wall StreetWall Street
Technical Strategy
US Equities- stretched
% of stocks above their 200 day sma% of stocks above their 200 day sma% of stocks above their 200 day sma% of stocks above their 200 day sma
on the NYSEon the NYSEon the NYSEon the NYSE
Current Market
Stock market history
Figure 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average bear markets (>20% decline) since 1929
Date High Date Low Calendar DaysPercent Drop
(High to Low)
Percent Drop
per Quarter
Percent Drop
per Month1929 09/02/1929 386 07/04/1932 40 1036 89.51% 7.46% 2.63%1933 7/17/1933 110 3/18/1935 84 609 23.53% 3.36% 1.18%1937 03/08/1937 195 4/27/1942 92 1876 52.63% 2.51% 0.90%1946 5/27/1946 213 10/28/1946 160 154 24.80% 8.27% 4.96%1961 11/13/1961 741 6/25/1962 524 224 29.25% 9.75% 4.18%1966 02/07/1966 1001 10/10/1966 735 245 26.51% 6.63% 3.31%1968 12/02/1968 994 5/25/1970 627 539 36.92% 5.27% 2.17%1973 01/08/1973 1067 12/09/1974 572 700 46.39% 5.80% 2.02%
History speaks
1976 9/20/1976 1026 2/27/1978 736 525 28.20% 4.03% 1.66%1981 4/27/1981 1030 08/09/1982 769 469 25.32% 4.22% 1.58%1987 8/24/1987 2746 10/19/1987 1706 56 37.85% 18.93% 18.93%1990 7/16/1990 3010 10/08/1990 2353 84 21.83% 10.91% 7.28%2000 1/18/2000 11720 10/07/2002 7197 993 38.59% 3.22% 1.17%2007 10/08/2007 14198 01/21/2009 7449 471 47.50% 7.91% 2.96%Source: BloombergFigure 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average: the past and the present
Mean Drop Mean Duration (Calendar Days) Median Drop Median Duration (Calendar Days)In the past 37.03% 578 29.25% 525Present 47.50% 471 47.50% 471DifferenceDifferenceDifferenceDifference ----10.47%10.47%10.47%10.47% 107107107107 ----18.25%18.25%18.25%18.25% 54545454Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSource: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
k1
Diapositive 13
k1 kotickj; 21-01-09
1968
1933
1973
2000
1929
1937
Figure 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average: decline in
each bear market ranked by days of duration
1987
2000
1973
2007
1937
1929
Figure 4: Dow Jones Industrial Average: decline
in each bear market ranked by percent drop
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
1987
1990
1946
1961
1966
1981
2007
1976
1968
2007: 8th largest out of 14
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
1990
1933
1946
1981
1966
1976
1961
1968
2007: 3rd largest out of 14
Source: Bloomberg
Top Down Approach
to Investing in
Equities
Current DJIA
3M Co 5.359856 JPMorgan Chase 1.961784
Alcoa Inc 0.856871 Kraft Foods Inc 2.810812
American Express Co 1.630408 McDonald’s Corp 5.708879
AT&T Inc 2.494142 Merck & Co Inc 2.809831
Bank of America Corp 0.568633 Microsoft Corp 1.857861
Boeing Co 4.020628 Pfizer Inc 1.726488
Caterpillar Inc 3.831410 Procter & Gamble Co 5.686330
Chevron Corp 6.887322 United Technologies Corp 4.904950Chevron Corp 6.887322 United Technologies Corp 4.904950
Citigroup Inc 0.306866 Verizon Communications Inc 2.979441
Coca-Cola Co 4.237297 Wal-Mart Stores Inc 5.041226
EI Du Pont de Nemours & Co 2.359827 Walt Disney Co 2.039236
Exxon Mobil Corp 7.631447
General Electric Co 1.302954
General Motors Corp 0.357847
Hewlett-Packard Co 3.308856
Home Depot Inc 2.196100
Intel Corp 1.295111 ***price weighted, not market cap weighted
IBM Corp 8.180473
Johnson and Johnson 5.647114
Global markets - % distance from the 60-day - January
Topix : 0.3 WSE WIG Indx: -0.3 DJIA: -1.0
Hang Seng: 1.6 Prague Stock Exch Indx: 2.5 S&P 500 Indx: -0.4
KOSPI Index: 6.3 Russian RTS Indx: -8.2 S&P/TSX Comp. Indx: 1.5
BSE Sensex 30: -2.8 Budapest Stock Exch Indx: -1.4 Bolsa Indx: 5.4
Straits Times: 1.5 Bucharest Bet Indx: -11.5 Bovespa Stock Indx: 10.8
KL Comp. Index: 4.1 PFTS Indx: 5.3 Merval Index: 9.3
Stock Exch of Thai: 5.1 BELEXline Indx: -13.1 FTSE 100: 4.6
Jakarta Composite: 7.8 OMX Tallinn Indx: 0.2 CAC 40: 1.0
PSEi: 1.3 OMX Riga Indx: -19.5 DAX: 1.3
Karachi 100: -39 OMX Vilnius Indx: -8.4 IBEX 35: 3.6
Ho Chi Minh Stock Indx:-4.1 SOFIX Indx: -24.3Ho Chi Minh Stock Indx:-4.1 SOFIX Indx: -24.3
Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares:-11.8 ISE National 100 Indx: 1.8 Swiss Market Indx: -0.7
ASX 200 index: -0.7 FTSE/JSE Africa All Shr: 7.5 Nikkei: 3.1
NZX 50 FF gross index: 0.5 Egypt Hermes Indx: 0.9 NYSE Composite: 1.4
Milan MIB30 Indx: -0.8 MASI Freefloat Index:-18.6 AMEX Composite: 7.2
PSI General Indx: 3.2 Namibia Stock Ex. Overall: 5.5 DJ STOXX: 1.4
Irish Overall Indx: 3.1 Botswana Gaborone Indx: -11.1 Chile Stock Mkt General: 2.4
AEX Index: 5.2 BHSE All Share: -18.4 Venezuela Stock Mkt Indx: 0.1
Belgian Stk Mkt Ret Indx: 2.2 Kenya SE: 1.1 Peru Lima General Indx: -2.7
Luxembourg LuxX Indx: 5.4 Tel Aviv 100: 0.5 IGBC General Idx: 5.0
OMX Copenhagen Indx: -0.2 Tadawul All Share: -2.2 BCT Corp Costa Rica Indx:-2.2
OMX Helsinki Idnx:-1.2 JSE Market Indx: -2.6 JASDAQ SE: 3.3
OSE All Share INDX: 4.1 DSM 20 Indx: -4.8 DJ Trans: -1.2
OMX Stockholm Bench.: 5.1 Abu Dhabi Sec Indx: -18.6 DJ Util.: 1.4
Austrian Vienna Stock. Ex: -2.1 MSM 30 Indx: -15.4 Shanghai SE Composite: 0.2
ASE General Indx: -10.3 Mauritius Stock Exchange: -5.4 Taiwan Taiex Indx: -1.3
Global markets - % distance from the 200-day - January
Topix : -34 WSE WIG Indx: -38 DJIA: -25
Hang Seng: -38 Prague Stock Exch Indx: -48 S&P 500 Indx: -31
KOSPI Index: -25 Russian RTS Indx: -152 S&P/TSX Comp. Indx: -33
BSE Sensex 30: -43 Budapest Stock Exch Indx: -48 Bolsa Indx: -19
Straits Times: -41 Bucharest Bet Indx: -94 Bovespa Stock Indx: -27
KL Comp. Index: -18 PFTS Indx: -104 Merval Index: -41
Stock Exch of Thai: -41 BELEXline Indx: -99 FTSE 100: -16
Jakarta Composite: -38 OMX Tallinn Indx: -55 CAC 40: -26
PSEi:-24 OMX Riga Indx: -68 DAX: -25
Karachi 100: -82 OMX Vilnius Indx: -86 IBEX 35: -21
Ho Chi Minh Stock Indx:-35 SOFIX Indx: -152
Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares :-47 ISE National 100 Indx: -33 Swiss Market Indx: -18Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares :-47 ISE National 100 Indx: -33 Swiss Market Indx: -18
ASX 200 index: -28 FTSE/JSE Africa All Shr: -18 Nikkei: -33
NZX 50 FF gross index: -16 Egypt Hermes Indx: -67 NYSE Composite: -34
Milan MIB30 Indx: -34 MASI Freefloat Index:-39 AMEX Composite: -30
PSI General Indx: -29 Namibia Stock Ex. Overall: -32 DJ STOXX: -26
Irish Overall Indx: -61 Botswana Gaborone Indx: -8 Chile Stock Mkt General: -10
AEX Index: -39 BHSE All Share: -44 Venezuela Stock Mkt Indx: -6
Belgian Stk Mkt Ret Indx: -39 Kenya SE: -27 Peru Lima General Indx: -78
Luxembourg LuxX Indx: -58 Tel Aviv 100: -42 IGBC General Idx: -13
OMX Copenhagen Indx: -40 Tadawul All Share: -49 BCT Corp Costa Rica Indx:-11
OMX Helsinki Idnx:-40 JSE Market Indx: -20 JASDAQ SE: -19
OSE All Share INDX: -50 DSM 20 Indx: -51 DJ Trans: -31
OMX Stockholm Bench.: -23 Abu Dhabi Sec Indx: -67 DJ Util.: -21
Austrian Vienna Stock. Ex: -76 MSM 30 Indx: -73 Shanghai SE Composite: -37
ASE General Indx: -41 Mauritius Stock Exchange: -35 Taiwan Taiex Indx: -48
Nothing without volume
sdf
MiddleExpansion
Early Expansion
Transportation
Technology
Capital Goods &Discretionary
BasicMaterials
Full RecessionMarket bottom
Early RecoveryBull Market
Sector rotation
Late Contraction
Late Expansion
EarlyContraction
Consumer Cyclicals
Energy
ConsumerStaples
Utilities
Financials
EarlyRecession –Bear Market
Full RecoveryMarket top
Sectors
AirlinesAirlinesAirlinesAirlines (XAL)(XAL)(XAL)(XAL) ----44% 44% 44% 44% ----16%16%16%16% Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
BanksBanksBanksBanks (BKX)(BKX)(BKX)(BKX) ----70%70%70%70% ----37%37%37%37% UnderperformUnderperformUnderperformUnderperform BearishBearishBearishBearish
BiotechsBiotechsBiotechsBiotechs (BTK)(BTK)(BTK)(BTK) ----8.6%8.6%8.6%8.6% +7%+7%+7%+7% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform BullishBullishBullishBullish
BrokersBrokersBrokersBrokers (XBD)(XBD)(XBD)(XBD) ----63% 63% 63% 63% ----2% 2% 2% 2% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
1 Year1 Year1 Year1 Year 2009 2009 2009 2009 Relative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative Strength
Market TrendMarket TrendMarket TrendMarket Trend
Con. Stp (IXR)Con. Stp (IXR)Con. Stp (IXR)Con. Stp (IXR) ----16% 16% 16% 16% ----6%6%6%6% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
Con. Dis. (XLY)Con. Dis. (XLY)Con. Dis. (XLY)Con. Dis. (XLY) ----39%39%39%39% ----3%3%3%3% UnderperformUnderperformUnderperformUnderperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
DefenceDefenceDefenceDefence (DFI)(DFI)(DFI)(DFI) ----25% 25% 25% 25% ----4% 4% 4% 4% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform
NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
DrugsDrugsDrugsDrugs (DRG)(DRG)(DRG)(DRG) ----16%16%16%16% ----2% 2% 2% 2% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform BullishBullishBullishBullish
Gold/Silver (XAU)Gold/Silver (XAU)Gold/Silver (XAU)Gold/Silver (XAU) ----30% 30% 30% 30% +1% +1% +1% +1% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform BullishBullishBullishBullish
HMOsHMOsHMOsHMOs (HMO)(HMO)(HMO)(HMO) ----46% 46% 46% 46% +12% +12% +12% +12% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform Bull.Bull.Bull.Bull.
HousingHousingHousingHousing (HGX)(HGX)(HGX)(HGX) ----47% 47% 47% 47% ----7% 7% 7% 7% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
InsuranceInsuranceInsuranceInsurance (S&P Ins. Indx)(S&P Ins. Indx)(S&P Ins. Indx)(S&P Ins. Indx) ----66% 66% 66% 66% ----21%21%21%21% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral Neutral.Neutral.Neutral.Neutral.
InternetInternetInternetInternet (DJ Int. Indx)(DJ Int. Indx)(DJ Int. Indx)(DJ Int. Indx) ----39% 39% 39% 39% +2% +2% +2% +2% Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
Nat. GasNat. GasNat. GasNat. Gas (XNG)(XNG)(XNG)(XNG) ----31% 31% 31% 31% +3%+3%+3%+3% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
Networking (NWX)Networking (NWX)Networking (NWX)Networking (NWX) ----41%41%41%41% ----5%5%5%5% Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
1 Year1 Year1 Year1 Year 2009 2009 2009 2009 Relative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative Strength Market TrendMarket TrendMarket TrendMarket Trend
OilOilOilOil (XOI)(XOI)(XOI)(XOI) ----31% 31% 31% 31% ----2%2%2%2% Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
Oil Services (OSX)Oil Services (OSX)Oil Services (OSX)Oil Services (OSX) ----51% 51% 51% 51% +6%+6%+6%+6% Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
REITSREITSREITSREITS (RMZ)(RMZ)(RMZ)(RMZ) ----52% 52% 52% 52% ----16%16%16%16% Underperform Underperform Underperform Underperform BearishBearishBearishBearish
RetailRetailRetailRetail (S&P Ret. Indx)(S&P Ret. Indx)(S&P Ret. Indx)(S&P Ret. Indx) ----35% 35% 35% 35% ----4%4%4%4% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
SemisSemisSemisSemis (SOX)(SOX)(SOX)(SOX) ----41%41%41%41% +3%+3%+3%+3% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
Transports (TRAN)Transports (TRAN)Transports (TRAN)Transports (TRAN) ----35%35%35%35% ----13%13%13%13% UUUUnnnnddddeeeerrrrppppeeeerrrrffffoooorrrrmmmm
Bear.Bear.Bear.Bear.
UtilitiesUtilitiesUtilitiesUtilities (UTY(UTY(UTY(UTY ----26% 26% 26% 26% +1% Outperform +1% Outperform +1% Outperform +1% Outperform
Banking wastes an opportunity
Leadership potential
Sector Watch
China Canada and US Housing
Global Markets
Domino effect throughout the year
How the dominos fall is important
Business Cycle tells us roughly what to expect
Fixed income
Breakevens - real change in US and Europe
Early signs that tension could be easing in EU
Sentiment is too extreme
Too bullish - Europe
Japan – Pivot is clear…otherwise, just a range
US yields - 2 and 10
US Curve
German curve
Germany and UK Cash Tens
Commodities
CRB 56% fall – only 45% between 1980/2000
Bubbles and their aftermath
Oil
Base metals – leading indicators
Gold shines brightly
A precious story
Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD
USD index
CHF
Yen – upside potential
USD/JPY
Sterling
EM – signals to watch
Commodity Currencies
Canada
Green shoots starting to sprout – more needed
•Equities – S&P500/Shanghai Composite*/Kopsi/Ftse100
•T-Bill yields rise at the margin
• Dollar falls
•Breakevens recover
• Sectors – Relative recovery in US housing/Banking
/Consumer discretionary. Small cap
outperformance.
• Commodity stability
DisclaimerThis presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital This presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital This presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital This presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital –––– the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates worldwide (worldwide (worldwide (worldwide (‘‘‘‘Barclays CapitalBarclays CapitalBarclays CapitalBarclays Capital’’’’). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is ). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is ). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is ). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is indicative and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The informatindicative and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The informatindicative and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The informatindicative and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The informationionionioncontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Barclays Capital does not represent or warrant thcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Barclays Capital does not represent or warrant thcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Barclays Capital does not represent or warrant thcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Barclays Capital does not represent or warrant that at at at it is it is it is it is accurate and complete. The views reflected herein are those of Barclays Capital and are subject to change without notice. Baraccurate and complete. The views reflected herein are those of Barclays Capital and are subject to change without notice. Baraccurate and complete. The views reflected herein are those of Barclays Capital and are subject to change without notice. Baraccurate and complete. The views reflected herein are those of Barclays Capital and are subject to change without notice. Barclaclaclaclays ys ys ys Capital and its respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuCapital and its respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuCapital and its respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuCapital and its respective officers, directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuancancancance of e of e of e of this document, may from time to time act as manager, cothis document, may from time to time act as manager, cothis document, may from time to time act as manager, cothis document, may from time to time act as manager, co----manager or underwriter of a public offering or otherwise deal in, hold omanager or underwriter of a public offering or otherwise deal in, hold omanager or underwriter of a public offering or otherwise deal in, hold omanager or underwriter of a public offering or otherwise deal in, hold or act r act r act r act as marketas marketas marketas market----makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to the securities or related derivativmakers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to the securities or related derivativmakers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to the securities or related derivativmakers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to the securities or related derivatives es es es which are the subject of this report.which are the subject of this report.which are the subject of this report.which are the subject of this report.Neither Barclays Capital, nor any officer or employee thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequentiaNeither Barclays Capital, nor any officer or employee thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequentiaNeither Barclays Capital, nor any officer or employee thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequentiaNeither Barclays Capital, nor any officer or employee thereof accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential ll ll ll loss oss oss oss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Any securities recommendations made herein may not be suitable for arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Any securities recommendations made herein may not be suitable for arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Any securities recommendations made herein may not be suitable for arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Any securities recommendations made herein may not be suitable for allallallallinvestors. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Any modeling or backtesting data contained in this document isinvestors. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Any modeling or backtesting data contained in this document isinvestors. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Any modeling or backtesting data contained in this document isinvestors. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Any modeling or backtesting data contained in this document is nonononot t t t intended to be a statement as to future performance.intended to be a statement as to future performance.intended to be a statement as to future performance.intended to be a statement as to future performance.Investors should seek their own advice as to the suitability of any investments described herein for their own financial or tInvestors should seek their own advice as to the suitability of any investments described herein for their own financial or tInvestors should seek their own advice as to the suitability of any investments described herein for their own financial or tInvestors should seek their own advice as to the suitability of any investments described herein for their own financial or tax ax ax ax circumstances.circumstances.circumstances.circumstances.This communication is being made available in the UK and Europe to persons who are investment professionals as that term is dThis communication is being made available in the UK and Europe to persons who are investment professionals as that term is dThis communication is being made available in the UK and Europe to persons who are investment professionals as that term is dThis communication is being made available in the UK and Europe to persons who are investment professionals as that term is defiefiefiefinnnneeeedddd iiiinnnn Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion Order) 2001. It is directed at persons who havArticle 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion Order) 2001. It is directed at persons who havArticle 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion Order) 2001. It is directed at persons who havArticle 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion Order) 2001. It is directed at persons who have e e e professional experience in matters relating to investments. The investments to which is relates are available only to such peprofessional experience in matters relating to investments. The investments to which is relates are available only to such peprofessional experience in matters relating to investments. The investments to which is relates are available only to such peprofessional experience in matters relating to investments. The investments to which is relates are available only to such persorsorsorsonnnnssss aaaannnndddd will be entered into only with such persons.will be entered into only with such persons.will be entered into only with such persons.will be entered into only with such persons.Barclays Capital Barclays Capital Barclays Capital Barclays Capital –––– tttthhhheeee iiiinnnnvvvveeeessssttttmmmmeeeennnntttt bbbbaaaannnnkkkkiiiinnnngggg ddddiiiivvvviiiissssiiiioooonnnn ooooffff BBBBaaaarrrrccccllllaaaayyyyssss BBBBaaaannnnkkkk PPPPLLLLCCCC,,,, aaaauuuutttthhhhoooorrrriiiisssseeeedddd aaaannnndddd rrrreeeegggguuuullllaaaatttteeeedddd bbbbyyyy tttthhhheeee FFFFiiiinnnnaaaannnncccciiiiaaaallll SSSSeeeerrrrvvvviiiicccceeeessss AAAAuuuutttthhhhoooorrrriiiittttyyyy ((((‘‘‘‘FSAFSAFSAFSA’’’’) and member of the London Stock Exchange.) and member of the London Stock Exchange.) and member of the London Stock Exchange.) and member of the London Stock Exchange.Copyright in this report is owned by Barclays Capital (Copyright in this report is owned by Barclays Capital (Copyright in this report is owned by Barclays Capital (Copyright in this report is owned by Barclays Capital (©©©© Barclays Bank PLC, 2009) Barclays Bank PLC, 2009) Barclays Bank PLC, 2009) Barclays Bank PLC, 2009) –––– no part of this report may be reproduced in any no part of this report may be reproduced in any no part of this report may be reproduced in any no part of this report may be reproduced in any manner without the prior written permission of Barclays Capital. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Regimanner without the prior written permission of Barclays Capital. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Regimanner without the prior written permission of Barclays Capital. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Regimanner without the prior written permission of Barclays Capital. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Registestestestered red red red office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP.office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP.office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP.office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP.