Irrationally Exuberant or Irrationally Exuberant or Irrationally Exuberant or Irrationally Exuberant or

Exuberantly IrrationalExuberantly IrrationalExuberantly IrrationalExuberantly Irrational

Jordan Kotick Jordan Kotick Jordan Kotick Jordan Kotick –––– Head of Global Technical Head of Global Technical Head of Global Technical Head of Global Technical

StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy

jordan.kotick@barcap.comjordan.kotick@barcap.comjordan.kotick@barcap.comjordan.kotick@barcap.com

A behavioral finance reminder…

Equities

Change and status quo

One Question – 3 answers: What is the market?

Main Street

Wall StreetWall Street

Technical Strategy

US Equities- stretched

% of stocks above their 200 day sma% of stocks above their 200 day sma% of stocks above their 200 day sma% of stocks above their 200 day sma

on the NYSEon the NYSEon the NYSEon the NYSE

Current Market

Stock market history

Figure 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average bear markets (>20% decline) since 1929

Date High Date Low Calendar DaysPercent Drop

(High to Low)

Percent Drop

per Quarter

Percent Drop

per Month1929 09/02/1929 386 07/04/1932 40 1036 89.51% 7.46% 2.63%1933 7/17/1933 110 3/18/1935 84 609 23.53% 3.36% 1.18%1937 03/08/1937 195 4/27/1942 92 1876 52.63% 2.51% 0.90%1946 5/27/1946 213 10/28/1946 160 154 24.80% 8.27% 4.96%1961 11/13/1961 741 6/25/1962 524 224 29.25% 9.75% 4.18%1966 02/07/1966 1001 10/10/1966 735 245 26.51% 6.63% 3.31%1968 12/02/1968 994 5/25/1970 627 539 36.92% 5.27% 2.17%1973 01/08/1973 1067 12/09/1974 572 700 46.39% 5.80% 2.02%

History speaks

1976 9/20/1976 1026 2/27/1978 736 525 28.20% 4.03% 1.66%1981 4/27/1981 1030 08/09/1982 769 469 25.32% 4.22% 1.58%1987 8/24/1987 2746 10/19/1987 1706 56 37.85% 18.93% 18.93%1990 7/16/1990 3010 10/08/1990 2353 84 21.83% 10.91% 7.28%2000 1/18/2000 11720 10/07/2002 7197 993 38.59% 3.22% 1.17%2007 10/08/2007 14198 01/21/2009 7449 471 47.50% 7.91% 2.96%Source: BloombergFigure 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average: the past and the present

Mean Drop Mean Duration (Calendar Days) Median Drop Median Duration (Calendar Days)In the past 37.03% 578 29.25% 525Present 47.50% 471 47.50% 471DifferenceDifferenceDifferenceDifference ----10.47%10.47%10.47%10.47% 107107107107 ----18.25%18.25%18.25%18.25% 54545454Source: BloombergSource: BloombergSource: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

k1

Diapositive 13

k1 kotickj; 21-01-09

1968

1933

1973

2000

1929

1937

Figure 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average: decline in

each bear market ranked by days of duration

1987

2000

1973

2007

1937

1929

Figure 4: Dow Jones Industrial Average: decline

in each bear market ranked by percent drop

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

1987

1990

1946

1961

1966

1981

2007

1976

1968

2007: 8th largest out of 14

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

1990

1933

1946

1981

1966

1976

1961

1968

2007: 3rd largest out of 14

Source: Bloomberg

Top Down Approach

to Investing in

Equities

Current DJIA

3M Co 5.359856 JPMorgan Chase 1.961784

Alcoa Inc 0.856871 Kraft Foods Inc 2.810812

American Express Co 1.630408 McDonald’s Corp 5.708879

AT&T Inc 2.494142 Merck & Co Inc 2.809831

Bank of America Corp 0.568633 Microsoft Corp 1.857861

Boeing Co 4.020628 Pfizer Inc 1.726488

Caterpillar Inc 3.831410 Procter & Gamble Co 5.686330

Chevron Corp 6.887322 United Technologies Corp 4.904950Chevron Corp 6.887322 United Technologies Corp 4.904950

Citigroup Inc 0.306866 Verizon Communications Inc 2.979441

Coca-Cola Co 4.237297 Wal-Mart Stores Inc 5.041226

EI Du Pont de Nemours & Co 2.359827 Walt Disney Co 2.039236

Exxon Mobil Corp 7.631447

General Electric Co 1.302954

General Motors Corp 0.357847

Hewlett-Packard Co 3.308856

Home Depot Inc 2.196100

Intel Corp 1.295111 ***price weighted, not market cap weighted

IBM Corp 8.180473

Johnson and Johnson 5.647114

Global markets - % distance from the 60-day - January

Topix : 0.3 WSE WIG Indx: -0.3 DJIA: -1.0

Hang Seng: 1.6 Prague Stock Exch Indx: 2.5 S&P 500 Indx: -0.4

KOSPI Index: 6.3 Russian RTS Indx: -8.2 S&P/TSX Comp. Indx: 1.5

BSE Sensex 30: -2.8 Budapest Stock Exch Indx: -1.4 Bolsa Indx: 5.4

Straits Times: 1.5 Bucharest Bet Indx: -11.5 Bovespa Stock Indx: 10.8

KL Comp. Index: 4.1 PFTS Indx: 5.3 Merval Index: 9.3

Stock Exch of Thai: 5.1 BELEXline Indx: -13.1 FTSE 100: 4.6

Jakarta Composite: 7.8 OMX Tallinn Indx: 0.2 CAC 40: 1.0

PSEi: 1.3 OMX Riga Indx: -19.5 DAX: 1.3

Karachi 100: -39 OMX Vilnius Indx: -8.4 IBEX 35: 3.6

Ho Chi Minh Stock Indx:-4.1 SOFIX Indx: -24.3Ho Chi Minh Stock Indx:-4.1 SOFIX Indx: -24.3

Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares:-11.8 ISE National 100 Indx: 1.8 Swiss Market Indx: -0.7

ASX 200 index: -0.7 FTSE/JSE Africa All Shr: 7.5 Nikkei: 3.1

NZX 50 FF gross index: 0.5 Egypt Hermes Indx: 0.9 NYSE Composite: 1.4

Milan MIB30 Indx: -0.8 MASI Freefloat Index:-18.6 AMEX Composite: 7.2

PSI General Indx: 3.2 Namibia Stock Ex. Overall: 5.5 DJ STOXX: 1.4

Irish Overall Indx: 3.1 Botswana Gaborone Indx: -11.1 Chile Stock Mkt General: 2.4

AEX Index: 5.2 BHSE All Share: -18.4 Venezuela Stock Mkt Indx: 0.1

Belgian Stk Mkt Ret Indx: 2.2 Kenya SE: 1.1 Peru Lima General Indx: -2.7

Luxembourg LuxX Indx: 5.4 Tel Aviv 100: 0.5 IGBC General Idx: 5.0

OMX Copenhagen Indx: -0.2 Tadawul All Share: -2.2 BCT Corp Costa Rica Indx:-2.2

OMX Helsinki Idnx:-1.2 JSE Market Indx: -2.6 JASDAQ SE: 3.3

OSE All Share INDX: 4.1 DSM 20 Indx: -4.8 DJ Trans: -1.2

OMX Stockholm Bench.: 5.1 Abu Dhabi Sec Indx: -18.6 DJ Util.: 1.4

Austrian Vienna Stock. Ex: -2.1 MSM 30 Indx: -15.4 Shanghai SE Composite: 0.2

ASE General Indx: -10.3 Mauritius Stock Exchange: -5.4 Taiwan Taiex Indx: -1.3

Global markets - % distance from the 200-day - January

Topix : -34 WSE WIG Indx: -38 DJIA: -25

Hang Seng: -38 Prague Stock Exch Indx: -48 S&P 500 Indx: -31

KOSPI Index: -25 Russian RTS Indx: -152 S&P/TSX Comp. Indx: -33

BSE Sensex 30: -43 Budapest Stock Exch Indx: -48 Bolsa Indx: -19

Straits Times: -41 Bucharest Bet Indx: -94 Bovespa Stock Indx: -27

KL Comp. Index: -18 PFTS Indx: -104 Merval Index: -41

Stock Exch of Thai: -41 BELEXline Indx: -99 FTSE 100: -16

Jakarta Composite: -38 OMX Tallinn Indx: -55 CAC 40: -26

PSEi:-24 OMX Riga Indx: -68 DAX: -25

Karachi 100: -82 OMX Vilnius Indx: -86 IBEX 35: -21

Ho Chi Minh Stock Indx:-35 SOFIX Indx: -152

Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares :-47 ISE National 100 Indx: -33 Swiss Market Indx: -18Sri Lanka Colombo All Shares :-47 ISE National 100 Indx: -33 Swiss Market Indx: -18

ASX 200 index: -28 FTSE/JSE Africa All Shr: -18 Nikkei: -33

NZX 50 FF gross index: -16 Egypt Hermes Indx: -67 NYSE Composite: -34

Milan MIB30 Indx: -34 MASI Freefloat Index:-39 AMEX Composite: -30

PSI General Indx: -29 Namibia Stock Ex. Overall: -32 DJ STOXX: -26

Irish Overall Indx: -61 Botswana Gaborone Indx: -8 Chile Stock Mkt General: -10

AEX Index: -39 BHSE All Share: -44 Venezuela Stock Mkt Indx: -6

Belgian Stk Mkt Ret Indx: -39 Kenya SE: -27 Peru Lima General Indx: -78

Luxembourg LuxX Indx: -58 Tel Aviv 100: -42 IGBC General Idx: -13

OMX Copenhagen Indx: -40 Tadawul All Share: -49 BCT Corp Costa Rica Indx:-11

OMX Helsinki Idnx:-40 JSE Market Indx: -20 JASDAQ SE: -19

OSE All Share INDX: -50 DSM 20 Indx: -51 DJ Trans: -31

OMX Stockholm Bench.: -23 Abu Dhabi Sec Indx: -67 DJ Util.: -21

Austrian Vienna Stock. Ex: -76 MSM 30 Indx: -73 Shanghai SE Composite: -37

ASE General Indx: -41 Mauritius Stock Exchange: -35 Taiwan Taiex Indx: -48

Nothing without volume

sdf

MiddleExpansion

Early Expansion

Transportation

Technology

Capital Goods &Discretionary

BasicMaterials

Full RecessionMarket bottom

Early RecoveryBull Market

Sector rotation

Late Contraction

Late Expansion

EarlyContraction

Consumer Cyclicals

Energy

ConsumerStaples

Utilities

Financials

EarlyRecession –Bear Market

Full RecoveryMarket top

Sectors

AirlinesAirlinesAirlinesAirlines (XAL)(XAL)(XAL)(XAL) ----44% 44% 44% 44% ----16%16%16%16% Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

BanksBanksBanksBanks (BKX)(BKX)(BKX)(BKX) ----70%70%70%70% ----37%37%37%37% UnderperformUnderperformUnderperformUnderperform BearishBearishBearishBearish

BiotechsBiotechsBiotechsBiotechs (BTK)(BTK)(BTK)(BTK) ----8.6%8.6%8.6%8.6% +7%+7%+7%+7% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform BullishBullishBullishBullish

BrokersBrokersBrokersBrokers (XBD)(XBD)(XBD)(XBD) ----63% 63% 63% 63% ----2% 2% 2% 2% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

1 Year1 Year1 Year1 Year 2009 2009 2009 2009 Relative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative Strength

Market TrendMarket TrendMarket TrendMarket Trend

Con. Stp (IXR)Con. Stp (IXR)Con. Stp (IXR)Con. Stp (IXR) ----16% 16% 16% 16% ----6%6%6%6% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

Con. Dis. (XLY)Con. Dis. (XLY)Con. Dis. (XLY)Con. Dis. (XLY) ----39%39%39%39% ----3%3%3%3% UnderperformUnderperformUnderperformUnderperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

DefenceDefenceDefenceDefence (DFI)(DFI)(DFI)(DFI) ----25% 25% 25% 25% ----4% 4% 4% 4% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform

NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

DrugsDrugsDrugsDrugs (DRG)(DRG)(DRG)(DRG) ----16%16%16%16% ----2% 2% 2% 2% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform BullishBullishBullishBullish

Gold/Silver (XAU)Gold/Silver (XAU)Gold/Silver (XAU)Gold/Silver (XAU) ----30% 30% 30% 30% +1% +1% +1% +1% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform BullishBullishBullishBullish

HMOsHMOsHMOsHMOs (HMO)(HMO)(HMO)(HMO) ----46% 46% 46% 46% +12% +12% +12% +12% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform Bull.Bull.Bull.Bull.

HousingHousingHousingHousing (HGX)(HGX)(HGX)(HGX) ----47% 47% 47% 47% ----7% 7% 7% 7% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

InsuranceInsuranceInsuranceInsurance (S&P Ins. Indx)(S&P Ins. Indx)(S&P Ins. Indx)(S&P Ins. Indx) ----66% 66% 66% 66% ----21%21%21%21% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral Neutral.Neutral.Neutral.Neutral.

InternetInternetInternetInternet (DJ Int. Indx)(DJ Int. Indx)(DJ Int. Indx)(DJ Int. Indx) ----39% 39% 39% 39% +2% +2% +2% +2% Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

Nat. GasNat. GasNat. GasNat. Gas (XNG)(XNG)(XNG)(XNG) ----31% 31% 31% 31% +3%+3%+3%+3% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

Networking (NWX)Networking (NWX)Networking (NWX)Networking (NWX) ----41%41%41%41% ----5%5%5%5% Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

1 Year1 Year1 Year1 Year 2009 2009 2009 2009 Relative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative StrengthRelative Strength Market TrendMarket TrendMarket TrendMarket Trend

OilOilOilOil (XOI)(XOI)(XOI)(XOI) ----31% 31% 31% 31% ----2%2%2%2% Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

Oil Services (OSX)Oil Services (OSX)Oil Services (OSX)Oil Services (OSX) ----51% 51% 51% 51% +6%+6%+6%+6% Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

REITSREITSREITSREITS (RMZ)(RMZ)(RMZ)(RMZ) ----52% 52% 52% 52% ----16%16%16%16% Underperform Underperform Underperform Underperform BearishBearishBearishBearish

RetailRetailRetailRetail (S&P Ret. Indx)(S&P Ret. Indx)(S&P Ret. Indx)(S&P Ret. Indx) ----35% 35% 35% 35% ----4%4%4%4% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

SemisSemisSemisSemis (SOX)(SOX)(SOX)(SOX) ----41%41%41%41% +3%+3%+3%+3% OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

Transports (TRAN)Transports (TRAN)Transports (TRAN)Transports (TRAN) ----35%35%35%35% ----13%13%13%13% UUUUnnnnddddeeeerrrrppppeeeerrrrffffoooorrrrmmmm

Bear.Bear.Bear.Bear.

UtilitiesUtilitiesUtilitiesUtilities (UTY(UTY(UTY(UTY ----26% 26% 26% 26% +1% Outperform +1% Outperform +1% Outperform +1% Outperform

Banking wastes an opportunity

Leadership potential

Sector Watch

China Canada and US Housing

Global Markets

Domino effect throughout the year

How the dominos fall is important

Business Cycle tells us roughly what to expect

Fixed income

Breakevens - real change in US and Europe

Early signs that tension could be easing in EU

Sentiment is too extreme

Too bullish - Europe

Japan – Pivot is clear…otherwise, just a range

US yields - 2 and 10

US Curve

German curve

Germany and UK Cash Tens

Commodities

CRB 56% fall – only 45% between 1980/2000

Bubbles and their aftermath

Oil

Base metals – leading indicators

Gold shines brightly

A precious story

Foreign Exchange

EUR/USD

USD index

CHF

Yen – upside potential

USD/JPY

Sterling

EM – signals to watch

Commodity Currencies

Canada

Green shoots starting to sprout – more needed

•Equities – S&P500/Shanghai Composite*/Kopsi/Ftse100

•T-Bill yields rise at the margin

• Dollar falls

•Breakevens recover

• Sectors – Relative recovery in US housing/Banking

/Consumer discretionary. Small cap

outperformance.

• Commodity stability

DisclaimerThis presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital This presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital This presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital This presentation has been prepared by Barclays Capital –––– the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates worldwide (worldwide (worldwide (worldwide (‘‘‘‘Barclays CapitalBarclays CapitalBarclays CapitalBarclays Capital’’’’). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is ). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is ). This publication is provided to you for information purposes, any pricing in this report is ). 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