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Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction
IPOVAI Project Proposal
Dr. Prof. Fangli QiaoFirst Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China
11-13 May 2015 , Phuket, Thailand
NEW PROJECT PROPOSAL
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Outline
1. Scientific background2. Objective 3. Project contents4. Outcome5. Working plan6. Relationship with on-going projects
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1. Scientific backgroundWhy we need this project?
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Science Drivers for IPOVAI
Monsoons system
Tropical Cyclones
Strong interannual variations and
complicated ocean circulation system
While lack of forecasting system
Cyclone
MJOIndian Ocean Dipole
Indian Ocean is the most poorly investigated region except the southern ocean
ENSO
ITF
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SAM
EASM
NWPM
AM
Monsoon circulation and precipitation in Asian-Australian Region (Boreal summer minus boreal winter)
Monsoon: derived from the Arabic word for season
Character: Seasonal reversal of the wind direction
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Low prediction ability on Monsoon
The prediction ability based on 5
climate models(Wang et al, 2004)
6
Based on 25 CMIP5 climate models
Low ability on precipitation prediction
The monsoon onset is too late
Summer Asian monsoon is too
weak while the NWPM too strong
Sperber et al,2012, CD
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Tropical Cyclones
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It has been a great challenge for accurate prediction of Typhoon/Hurricane (1990-2010)
8
Rappaport et al, 2012, BAMS
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.
Tragic disaster by super typhoon Haiyan, more than 4000 died,11.8 M people affected.Accurate Typhoon prediction is urgently needed
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2. Objective
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Project objectives
Get new findings on air-sea interaction through in-situ observation by considering surface wave;
Improve our scientific understanding on the role of surface wave in air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, and get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes especially for high wind conditions;
Improve the prediction ability of typhoon intensity and Asian monsoon system.
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What’s new in IPOVAI: Surface wave
To identify the effects of surface wave in air-sea interaction, based on our previous research on wave’s effects in ocean mixing; To get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes; To establish new Typhoon and monsoon prediction system.
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Along 35N transect in Aug.
World Ocean Atlas
With wave-induce mixing
Without wave effects
Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic
Along 35S transect in Feb.
35N
35S
3-D global ocean circulation models
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Along 35N transect in Aug.
World Ocean Atlas
With wave-induce mixing
Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic
Along 35S transect in Feb.
Vertical Temperature Distributions
Withoutwave-induce mixing
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Data
With BvNo Bv
Bv effect
Water vapor transport in Australian-Asian Monsoon area
Song and Qiao et al, 2012, JAS
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3. Project contents
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Concept model of IPOVAI Project
Forecasting system
Advanced Observation
Scientific research
Air-Sea interaction
18
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2015/5/23
Multi-scale Interaction Predictability
Northern Indian Ocean
CirculationAir-Sea Interaction
Typhoon
Mechanism
Analysis
Dynam
ic Process
Mechanism and Model
Evaluation and Diagnosis of Predictability
Dynam
ic Process
Mechanism
analysis
Propagation of climate signal
Inter-Ocean Exchange
Monsoon
Western Pacific Circulation, Warm Pool
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MomentumFluxes
HeatFluxes
MassFluxes
Albedo whitecapping
waves MIZ Extent
Wave dependent momentum flux
e.g., Janssen
& Viterbo,
1997
Sensible and Latent Heate.g.,
Veron et al., 2008
Wave driven turbulence and langmuir circulations
e.g., Babanin et al., 2006, 2009Qiao et al., 2003
Marine Aerosol Production
e.g., O’Dowd & de Leeuw,
2007
Bubble injection by breaking waves
e.g., Woolf, 1993
e.g., Frouin et al., 2001
e.g., Squire et al., 1995
Interface between ocean and atmosphere is critical because of air-sea fluxes
More effort should be conducted for the observation over air-sea interface
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IIOE 50th Anniversary Planning:
Spearheaded by IOGOOS, IOP and SIBERSupported by SCOR and UNESCO/IOCInternational planning committee formed, the IIOE-2 Reference Group
This project can also contribute to IIOE-2 as contribution from WESTPAC
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Workshops/Symposium We would like to organize an Open Science meeting in late 2015 if approved by IOC/WESTPAC, and annually workshops will be organized ; To identify the common interest and communicate on scientific progresses, generate the annual report.
New Generation Model Development New coupled models on Monsoon and Typhoon will be developed through considering new parameterization of air-sea fluxes, especially the effects of surface wave.
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In Situ Observation The needed observation in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific will be discussed during Open Science Meeting and will be addressed in Science/Implementation plan of IPOVAI, if approved.
Capacity Building Will be combined with the annual training course organized by the UNESCO/IOC-ODC center.
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4. Outcome
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Outcome
Advance our understanding on the internal dynamical features of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean natural variability, especially the role of surface wave in air-sea fluxes.
Expected update methodology emerging from this project, which are relevant to typhoon and monsoon prediction, will become useful tools for the numerical modelers.
The air-sea coupled models on Typhoon and monsoon will be shared among all participants.
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Steering Committee
26
Dr. Fangli Qiao, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China Dr. Dake Chen, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China Dr. Alexander V. Babanin, Swinburne University of Technology, Australia Dr. Fredolin Tangang, National University of Malaysia (UKM), Malaysia Dr. Somkiat Khokiattiwong, Phuket Marine Biological Center, Thailand Dr. Shangping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Dr. Le Dinh Mau, Institute of Oceanography, Viet Nam Others are welcomed
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TOR of Steering Committee
27
Review the regional concerns on IPOVAI, and identify the project requirements; Promote efficient and cost-effective implementation of this Project and prepare recommendations to the IOC Sub-Commission for the Western Pacific; Ensure effective interaction and communication with other potential international organizations, such as CLIVAR and SCOR etc; Identify the resources necessary to meet IPOVAI project needs.
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IPOVAI will also be a strong support and implementation of IPON (Indo-Pacific Ocean Observations and Services Network)
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5. Working Plan
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We hope the project could be during 2015-2020, and working plan for 2015-2017 is as follows
Activities Objectives Expected outcomes Date and Place
Workshop Communication for the
scientific outcome
Identify the common interest ,
generate the annual report
One Open Science meeting and two
workshops will be organized in
2015,2016,2017 in China and
WESTPAC states
In situ observation
Collect data on air-sea
interaction
The database 2016,2017 in Indian Ocean and western
Pacific
Capacity building Training the early careers
The skilled researcher
2015-2017, annually in China
Model develop and transplant
New coupled and ocean
models
Coupled model In China and WESTPAC member
states
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Estimated budgets
Three millions USD are now available from PI, supported by international cooperation projects of State Oceanic administration and NFSC. Thirty thousands USD from IOC/WESTPAC are
expected for WS and CB. Contribution from participants are highly
welcomed.
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6. Relationship with on-going projects
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The on-going projects of OFS and MOMSEI are solid base for the coming IPOVAI, and OFS is ocean forecasting system based on ocean model, sharing data and experience on model development;MOMSEI has focused on observation and process study, which can also do data sharing. In southeast Asia, OFS will establish the ocean forecasting ability, and IPOVAI can initiate the regional climate prediction.
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If IPOVAI can be approved by IOC/WESTPAC, we will:
To organize a working group to draft IPOVAI science/ implementation plan; To organize an Open Science Meeting in late 2015 to discuss, refine and approve draft IPOVAI science/ implementation plan; To seek the possibility to endorse this project by other leading international organization/programm such as WCRP.
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More effort to understand, protect ocean and climate, also to guarantee our better future …
Thanks!