indo-pacific ocean environment variation and air-sea
TRANSCRIPT
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Fangli QIAOWESTPAC Principal Investigator & FIO, MNR, China
12th Intergovernmental Session of the IOC Sub-Commission for the Western PacificManila, the Philippines, 2-5 April 2019
Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction (IPOVAI)
Progress and outputs (May 2017- April 2019)Workplan ( May 2019-April 2021)
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Project Objectives
p Get new findings on air-sea interaction through in-situ observation by considering surface wave;
pImprove our scientific understanding on the role of surface wave in air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, and get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes especially for high wind conditions;
p Improve the prediction ability of typhoon intensity and Asian monsoon system.
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Steering Committee
p Dr. Fangli Qiao, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Chinap Dr. Dake Chen, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Chinap Dr. Alexander V. Babanin, Swinburne University of Technology, Australiap Dr. Fredolin Tangang, National University of Malaysia (UKM), Malaysiap Dr. Somkiat Khokiattiwong, Phuket Marine Biological Center, Thailandp Dr. Shangping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USAp Dr. Le Dinh Mau, Institute of Oceanography, Viet Nam
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2019/4/8
Multi-scale Interaction Predictability
Northern Indian Ocean
CirculationAir-Sea Interaction
Typhoon
Mechanism
Analysis
Dynam
ic Process
Mechanism and Model
Evaluation and Diagnosis of Predictability
Dynam
ic Process
Mechanism
analysis
Propagation of climate signal
Inter-Ocean Exchange
Monsoon
Western Pacific Circulation, Warm Pool
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Progress and generated output
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Tropical Cyclones
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It has been a great challenge for accurate prediction of Typhoon/Hurricane (1990-2010)
7
Rappaport et al, 2012, BAMS
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Model development: Surface wave in Typhoon model
Zhao Biao, Fangli Qiao, Sensitivity of typhoon modeling to surface waves and rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2017. DOI:10.1002/2016JC012262
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Typhoon intensity Bias
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A regional coupled model is developed
WRF
MASNUM-Wav POM
C-Coupler
Bv、Bottom Stress、Radiation Stress
SSC
Zhao et al, 2016, submitted o JGR
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Without spray
Without spray
With spray
With spray
L-HF
S-HF
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4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Latentheatflux(Wm-2)
E0E1E2E12E123
4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov
0
100
200
300
400
Sensibleheatflux(Wm-2) E0
E1E2E12E123
(a)
(c)
4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Heatfluxdifference(Wm-2)
E12 - E2E12 - E1 Landfalling
4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov24
26
28
30
AreaaveragedSST(
o C)
E0E1E2E12MW_IR OI SST Landfalling
(b)
(d)
Heat flux
Area averaged in the 200 km radius inner core region of typhoon
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4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov880
920
960
1000
Minimum
sealevelpressure(hPa)
Best trackE0
E1E2
E12E123
4-Nov 6-Nov 8-Nov 10-Nov
20
40
60
80
Maximum
windspeedat10m(ms-1 )
Best trackE0
E1E2
E12E123
(a) (b)
ECMWF coupled modelFIO-AOW
Typhoon Min/Max Best track
E0 E1 E2 E12 E123
HaiyanMSLP (hPa) 895 921.1 921.3 892.7 892.9 895.7
Max wind(m/s) 64.3 58.0 57.11 67.4 66.7 68.7
JebiMSLP (hPa) 985 975.6 977.9 969.8 975.2 976.3
Max wind(m/s)
25.7 34.8 31.1 40.1 35.7 32.1
Technical Memoranda No.794
Error of the Lowest SLP: 26.1 to 0.7 for Haiyan, and 9.4 to 8.7 for Jebi
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Challenges
p The forecasting ability for weak Typhoon;p The prediction ability for Asian monsoon.
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Workplan (May 2019 – April 2021)Activities Objectives Expected
outputs/outcomes1. To get high quality data for air-sea fluxes from fixed offshore platform
To support the parameterization of air-sea fluxes by considering the surface wave effects
Data sets and new air-sea fluxes parameterization
2. To test the effects of sea spray in climate model
To set up new model for Asian monsoon onset
New monsoon model
3. To test new Typhoon model at operational forecasting center(s)
To improve forecasting ability of Typhoon intensity
The increased ability on reduction and mitigation of marine hazards
4. To organize 1 workshop
To share the new progress on Typhoon model
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Expected outputs and/or outcome
p Advance our understanding on the internal dynamical features of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean natural variability, especially the role of surface wave in air-sea fluxes.
p Expected update methodology emerging from this project, which are relevant to typhoon and monsoon prediction, will become useful tools for the numerical modelers.
p The air-sea coupled models on Typhoon and monsoon will be shared among all participants.
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RecommendationsA safe ocean is one of the six main streams for UN Decade of Ocean. We have provided a solution for a safe ocean by developing new Typhoon model with surface wave, FIO-AOW. The effects of surface wave on air-sea heat flux and vertical mixing in the upper ocean have been ignored for half century. To take Typhoon forecasting as an, we have found a solution for accurate forecasting on Typhoon.
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新型包含海浪的台风模式
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Thank you for your attention