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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H1
IDEAS AND EVIDENCE FOR FORCE DESIGN THE ROLE OF FORCE ANALYSIS BRANCH
Dr David Connery and Colonel Andy Haebich
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H2
KEY MESSAGES
Our Branch• Synthesising ideas and evidence to
support force design.
What our organisation needs to think about
• Conceptual innovation, as well as technological innovation.
New Methods• For industry, academia and
FAB to work better together.
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H3
Ideas are important
Great change is possible through ideas
1.
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H4
Ideas can be easy to smother
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H5
Evidence can be hard to find
What constitutes evidence about the future?
2.
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H6
How do we gather that evidence?
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H7
And if you had evidence – would anyone
listen?
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H8
What are our challenges?
To be influential in Defence policy
3.
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H9
To innovate in peacetime
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H10
Role of concepts, lessons, doctrine and experimentation
4.
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H11
CONCEPTS
Our joint concept section produces concepts in the 2035 timeframe, as well as the
AJOC to guide current force development
We are working towards building a community of experts and discussion groups on key topics across Defence – and eventually
whole-of-government and other trusted partners
We need to find better ways to disseminate our core products
across Defence and a wider audience
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H12
EXPERIMENTATIONJoint Experimentation Directorate delivers experimentation support in 4 main study lines.
• DCAP – HEADLIGHT
• Futures – HEADSTART
• Future Objective Force – Force Options and Integration Testing
• Stream and Capability Manager - specific issues of a program, project, more tactical nature
We need to maximise opportunities and leverage expertise for mutual benefit
We need to use better modelling, methods and tools (MMT) for Experimentation
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H13
DEFENCE LESSONS
Must derive and apply lessons to (wicked and poorly defined)
problems that lie in the future
Must look forward and outward
Use the large quantities of information within Defence and industry which are yet to be analysed for a force design context
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H14
DOCTRINEOur challenge is to move earlier
into the Capability Life Cycle
Find new ways to deliver doctrine
Find ways to test our doctrine
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H15
Working better together
What we think we need to do
How might we be able to work more closely?
5.
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F O R C E A N A LY S I S B R A N C H16
Conclusion6.
Peacetime military innovation occurs when respected senior officers formulate
a strategy which has both intellectual and organisational components
Peter Rosen