Download - How to Predict the Future
How to Predict the Future
William Hertling
Defrag 2014
2015 2025 2035
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
kb/s
Video
2005
Avg Speed: 1.2mbps
320 x 200 x 16 x 20% =
1.6mbps
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
kb/s
Napster
1999
Avg Speed: 88kbps
128 encoding = 3MB
Download time: 4 ½
minutes
Video
2005
Avg Speed: 1.2mbps
320 x 200 x 16 x 20% =
1.6mbps
• Predicted: 62 Mbps
• Actual 59.3 Mbps
• Difference: 4.8%
Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.
Reaches easily implantable size by
2030.
Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.
Reaches easily implantable size by
2030.
Human-level general
purpose AI
Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.
Reaches easily implantable size by
2030.
Human-level general
purpose AI
2025-2050 Processing power growing 47%/year,
50x/decade. Depends on estimates of
complexity of human intelligence.
Even if its 1000x more complicated,
that’s only 20 years further away.
Objection #1
“Exponential growth is not enough.”
“There are hard problems to solve, and we
don’t know how.”
Objection #2
“We haven’t done it, therefore we can’t do
it.”
“We’ve had forty years of disappointments.”
Objection #3
“We’re going to run into fundamental limits.”
“The trend can’t continue.”
Intel 80386
You are
here
My Use Cases
1. Seed for creativity and brainstorming
2. Validate other people’s assumptions
1986 1997
Step 1: Calculate Annual
Increase
Compounded
Annual Growth
Rate
Step 2: Extrapolate
Sanity Check
Prediction off by ~ 2x
Step 3: Predict
Caveats
To receive the following:
▪ A copy of this presentation
▪ Sample spreadsheets
▪ Links to my books
▪ Sample chapters
Just pick up your phone, and send an email:
To: [email protected]: defrag
William Hertling, @hertling
Want to Learn More?
To receive the following:
▪ A copy of this presentation
▪ Sample spreadsheets
▪ Links to my books
▪ Sample chapters
Just pick up your phone, and send an email:
To: [email protected]: defrag
William Hertling, @hertling
Want to Learn More?
defrag
