Download - Food for All on a Changing Planet
![Page 1: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Food For All on A Changing Planet
Photo: Matthieu Paley, National Geographic
Kimberly NicholasLund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden
www.kimnicholas.com@KA_Nicholas
![Page 2: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
![Page 3: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Imag
e: M
ark
Voge
l
![Page 4: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
![Page 5: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Smallholders: 1/3 people, grow 70% of food
5Photo: Martin Mejia/AP, in The Guardian
![Page 6: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6Photo: Reuters/Paulo Whitaker
12% ice-free land used for crops (size of South America)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004
![Page 7: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
22% ice-free land used for grazing livestock (size of Africa)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004
![Page 8: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Land is limited on the blue planet…
NASA PPM
![Page 9: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
ALL water on Earth(1384 km sphere)
Liquid fresh water (270 km sphere)
Fresh water in lakes & rivers(56km sphere)
Data from Shiklomanov, In Gleick 1993,“Water in Crisis.” Visualization by USGS Water Science Photo Gallery
Water Resources Are Limited…
![Page 10: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Agricultural production is 92% of human water footprint
Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012, PNAS
Phot
os: N
ation
al G
eogr
aphi
c
![Page 11: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Traditional fertilizer
Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic
![Page 12: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Modern fertilizer
Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic Photos: UNEP 2011, National Geographic
![Page 13: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Photo: Mishka Hnner, 2013. Tascosa Feedyards waste lagoon, Texas. Compiled from Google Earth.
Livestock manure: from valuable nutrient to toxic waste
![Page 14: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Livestock “probably largest sectoral source of water pollution”
(In US: 55% erosion, 37% pesticides, 33% N & P)(FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow)
Photo: NASA
![Page 15: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
We’re losing diversity
15http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/food-variety-graphic
![Page 16: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
We need a new food paradigm
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
![Page 17: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Right now, we have too little food security…
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
![Page 18: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
… and too much environmental harm
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
![Page 19: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
We need more real, fair & resilient food
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
![Page 20: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
… and less environmental damage
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
![Page 21: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Which causes more global warming?
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
![Page 22: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Livestock are major greenhouse gas sources
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
Sources: FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow; 20-year global warming potentials: IPCC WG1 2013, Table 8.A.1; Transport: IPCC WG3 2014, SPM
18%Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent):
14%• 37% methane (84x stronger than CO2)• 65% nitrous oxide (264x stronger than CO2)
![Page 23: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23Henson, 2011, “Warming World: Impacts by Degree.”
Climate change threatens crop yields
![Page 24: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
What about quality?
![Page 25: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Climate change threatens wine quality
25Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American
![Page 26: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Climate change threatens wine quality
26Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American
![Page 27: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Hunger remains a problem for 1/8
![Page 28: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Progress in poverty & food security
FAO, IFAD, & WFP (2013): State of Food Insecurity in the World
![Page 29: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Food has never been so plentiful
Source: Our World In Data, Max Roser
![Page 30: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
What’s the leading determinant of health around the world?
30
![Page 31: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
What we eat determines global health
![Page 32: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Diets kill more than disease
![Page 33: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Cassidy et al., 2013, ERL
Only 59% of calories produced become foodCurrent crops could feed 4 billion more if fed
directly to people
![Page 34: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Global meat consumption has increased dramatically since 1960
Godfray et al., 2010, Science
![Page 35: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
https://xkcd.com/1338/
![Page 36: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Slide courtesy Emily Cassidy. Source: Cassidy et al., 2013, ERL.
Meat is inefficient to produce human nutrition
![Page 37: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 28x more landCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
![Page 38: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 11x more waterCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
![Page 39: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 5x more greenhouse gasesCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
![Page 40: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 6x more reactive nitrogenCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
![Page 41: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef has the largest footprint of animal products
![Page 42: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
![Page 43: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
How much meat is recommended?
~0.7 grams / kilogram
90 kilogram person (200 lbs)
63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per year
Otten et al., 2006. Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient Requirements. National Academies Press. Slide from Emily Cassidy
![Page 44: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Source: FAO Food Balance SheetsSlide from Emily Cassidy
![Page 45: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Source: FAO Food Balance SheetsSlide from Emily Cassidy
Recommended intake
Most countries are consuming more meat than recommended for health - and the environment
![Page 46: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
Too much! Ukraine: 48.5 kg/person
Recommended level
![Page 47: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
How can we do better?
![Page 48: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Health and environmental goals align in plant-based diets
![Page 49: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49
Sweden’s new diet guidelines: health + environment
2015. “Find your way to eat greener, not too much and be active”
![Page 50: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
Stop wasting 30-40% of food grown
http://itm.marcelww.com/inglorious/
![Page 51: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Urban Food Forestry
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology51
![Page 52: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Urban trees could meet substantial food needs
Very Food Insecure:
Plant 1%city land
Recommended fruit intake: Plant 2% city land
52Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape EcologyCase study in Burlington, Vermont, USA
![Page 53: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
City planners recognize benefits of trees for wildlife…
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
“wildlife” N= 30 urban forestry master plans
80
60
40
20Perc
ent m
entio
ning
con
cept
Andr
ea C
olon
77%
53
![Page 54: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
…but not for people.
Bren
dan
Calla
han
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
13%
“wildlife” “food”N= 30 urban forestry master plans
80
60
40
20Perc
ent m
entio
ning
con
cept
Andr
ea C
olon
77%
54
2 in BC! Saanich and Selchelt
![Page 55: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
“In terms of immediacy… and feasibility… [reduced meat consumption] is clearly the most attractive opportunity. Give up meat for one day a week initially, and decrease it from there.”
Decrease meat consumption
Dr. Rajendra PachauriChair of IPCCQuoted in The Guardian, 7 September 2008 Photo: Elizabeth Ruiz
![Page 56: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
![Page 57: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Smaller portions of meat, meat-free meals go a long way
![Page 58: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
“Meat is a wasteful use of water and creates a lot of greenhouse gases. It puts enormous pressure on the world’s resources. A vegetarian diet is better.”
Go further
Lord Nicholas SternFormer World Bank chief economistQuoted in The Daily Mail, 27 October 2009
![Page 59: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Vegetarians had half the carbon footprint of heavy meat eatersFish-eaters and vegetarians had similar carbon footprintsVegans go the extra mile
![Page 60: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
“We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2°C targetwith a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.” Hedenus et al., 2014, Climatic
Change
![Page 61: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
EAT Forum 2014
Some exciting models
Picture from @kaityarnall
![Page 62: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62Quote by Michael Pollan; graphic design by Rob Kelley, namtab.com
![Page 63: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
We vote with our forks three times every day
Photo: Seven Stans, National Geographic
![Page 64: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
If we’re serious about addressing climate
change, we have to get serious about reducing meat
consumption.@KA_Nicholas Image: Bill Hogan on vox.com
![Page 65: Food for All on a Changing Planet](https://reader037.vdocuments.mx/reader037/viewer/2022110218/588208ad1a28abf05e8b6291/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
High-impact actions for individuals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
65Wynes & Nicholas, in prep
Based on: • 42 sources (25
peer-reviewed)• 16 countries• 161 scenarios