Example of Modern Civil
Space Weather Service
Bob Rutledge
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado
Multi-functional Nature of the Aerospace Domain: a European Approach
Italian Air Force Institute of Military Sciences (ISMA)
Florence, Italy 23-24 October 2014
Outline
National Drivers/Federal Response
Service Provision Today
Modeling Efforts
Satellite Observations
International Collaborations/
Opportunities
THE DRIVERS Owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System
to implement operational procedures to mitigate
Geomagnetic Storm effects.
United Nations ICAO working
toward policies and protocols for
space weather.
Space weather now included in
the Strategic National Risk
Assessment
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Standards for Geomagnetic storms
White House Geomagnetically Induced
Currents Interagency Working Group
Federal Emergency Management Agency
Federal Interagency Operations Plan
North American Electric Reliability Corp.
Joint Industry-Government Task Force
RESPONDING TO THE THREAT
National and International Exercises
• Secure Grid
• FEMA/MSB/NOAA
• National Exercise Program
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• Arrival: 8 minutes, photons
• Duration: Minutes to 3 hours
• Daylight-side impacts
• Probabilistic 1, 2, 3-day forecasts
• Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)
• Summary messages post-event
Services Today - Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts – R Scale)
Services Today - Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)
• Arrival: 10’s of minutes to
several hours
• Duration: hours to days
• Short-term warnings pre-onset
• Alert for threshold crossing
• Summary post-event
Geomagnetic Storm Watch • Issued upon detection of Earth-directed
CME and WSA-Enlil model run • 1-3 day forecast
L1
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Geomagnetic Storm Warning • Issued upon detection at the ACE spacecraft
at the L1 Lagrange point • 15-50 minutes before impacting Earth
Geomagnetic Storm Alert • Issued when geomagnetic storm is detected
on USGS magnetometers • Current condition
Users need regional/local specification of the environment
Services Today - Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)
Services Today - Graphical Nowcasts/ Short-term Forecasts
Solar/Solar Wind
Modeling at NOAA – A Sun to Earth Continuum Partnerships with the Space Weather Research Community
Magnetosphere/
Ionosphere
Ionosphere/
Atmosphere
Earth’s surface
Currently in Operations
2015
2017
2015
• In partnership with Community Coordinated Modeling Center,
Geospace models identified for transition to operations:
- U. of Michigan Space Weather Modeling
Framework - Full physics-based
magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model
• Provide regional specification and
short-term forecasts of geomagnetic
conditions
Transition complete by 2015
Magnetosphere/Ionosphere
Ionosphere/Atmosphere
Couples ionosphere/plasmasphere prediction capabilities, with current weather prediction model
Predicts lower atmosphere impact on ionospheric (and vice versa)
Expected benefits:
Improved forecasts/lead times for ionospheric conditions that can disrupt GPS & communications
Improved terrestrial forecasts from upper atmosphere coupling
Transition complete by 2017
Implementing the Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere
(IDEA)/Whole Model (WAM) with University of Colorado
Multiyear project to raise the top of operational GFS to 600km
In partnership with USGS, introducing web-based, real-time
induced electric field product • Challenges remain in magnetic field interpolation
• Challenges remain in ground conductivity characterization
Simulated October 2003 Electric field intensity
(orange > 0.5 V/km, yellow > 0.2 V/km, green < 0.2 V/km)
Electric Field Nowcast Model
Transition complete by 2015
DSCOVR
GOES-R
Satellite Observations
DSCOVR Operationally dedicated – Ensure continuity of solar wind measurements: Launch January, 2015
GOES-R NOAA’s next-generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Continuity of existing measurements, updated imager, inclusion of heavy ion measurements: Launch 2016
Operational Coronagraph • High priority to replace ESA-NASA SOHO/LASCO
Coronagraph • RFI issued in Feb 2014 for DSCOVR follow-on… Combines coronograph and in situ mag/plasma
L5 Mission is needed…. How can it be done?
Coronagraph
Global Threat – Global Response
• Continued efforts of the International Space Environment Service (ISES)
• International Bilateral/Multilateral Efforts: • UK Met Office began 24/7 services this month • Continued development of services/collaboration with the
Korean Radio Research Agency/Korean Space Weather Center • Continuation of other long-standing bilateral activities… • On the research side, collaboration with the European
Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), others
• NOAA working with the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on the development of space weather standards for global aviation
International Space Weather Collaborations
Opportunities for Synergy
• Collaboration on securing/maintaining key observations • Partnerships in satellite mission/instrument development • Partnerships in satellite tracking • Partnerships in ground-based monitoring (magnetometers, ground-based GNSS, etc.)
• Sharing/Utilization of existing data (SWPC E-SWDS as an example)
• Continued collaboration on research and model development
• Continued collaboration on global awareness and response
International Space Weather Collaborations
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado
www.spaceweather.gov
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
Radiation Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
NOAA Space Weather Scales
Event-Driven Product Definitions
– Watches; The conditions are favorable for occurrence
– Warnings; disturbances that are imminent, expected in the near future with high probability
– Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds
Phenomena Reference/Impacts
Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): • No advance warning • Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours • Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible
Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days • Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew • Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations
Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range
from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability • Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48
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