Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future Chapter 5

The Human Population: Demographics

Ch. 5 Outline The world population explosion including

the United States. What about your state? Different population growth rates in

developed and developing nations. Consequences of exploding populations. Dynamics of population growth.

As of Oct 27, 2009….World Population: 6,793,208,538U.S. Population: 307,796,653

Where do you find the greatest population densities?

Major Shifts in Sustainabilitynatural systems displaced by human ones

Paleolithic Time of early humans (40,000 to 10,000 yrs ago) hunter-gatherers, settlements were small and short-lived

Neolithic Revolution (12,000 yrs ago in Middle East after colder and drier climate occurred) development of animal domestication and agriculture, more reliable efficient and abundant food source allowed for specialization of labor and permanent settlements permitting better care and protection leading to greater population growth

Industrial Revolution (1800’s to present) modern science and technological advancements energized by fossil fuels, first coal then oil and gas expanding economies, global commerce, larger cities, exploitation of natural resources and POLLUTION

The Next Revolution…a return to GREEN

Environmental Revolution (1960’s…NOW?) revolution implies an overthrow of “business as usual” to sustainable development, finding ways to limit degradation of natural resources and keep ecosystem cycles intact

The Human Population Explosion

9,000 human beings added to the planet every hour

World Population Growth and Percent Growth Rate

Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and Great Grandchildren

In America West Germany Africa

14 5 258…wow!

Developing country: generally used to describe a nation with a low level of material well being (low GNI, low GDP non industrialized)

The World Bank considers all low- and middle- income countries as "developing". In 2008, countries with Gross National Income (GNI) per capita below US$11,905 were considered developing.

Developed country: used to describe countries that have a high level of development /industrialization (high GNI or high HDI)

World Bank considered high income developed countries with GNI per capita above US$11,905 in 2008.

Some use other criteria such as Human Development Index (HDI), or Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary General, defined a developed country as “one that allows all its citizens to enjoy a free and healthy life in a safe environment."

Developing Vs. Developed Countries

Who is mostly contributing to the planet’s growing population?

Growth of Cities

Within the last year, over half of the world’s population now live in “cities” (including shanty towns)

Reasons for the Human Population Explosion…better health conditions Causes of disease recognized Improvements in nutrition Discovery of antibiotics Improvements in medicine Increase in number of women who actually

reach child-bearing age Short doubling times in some countries

Changing Human Survivorship Curves: Went From A to B

% S

urvi

val

AgeBirth Death

A

B

Consequences of Exploding Populations

More PopulationCauses

deforestationresource depletionloss of agricultural landbiodiversitydiseasepest resistancepopulation migrationirrigation/water shortagesWetlands degradation

Basic Human Needs are already limited

Drinkable Water Edible Food Safe Housing Health Care An Education A Job

Developing or Developed Nations? High fertility rates High consumptive lifestyles: use 80%

of world’s wealth Intense poverty Eat high on the food chain

Developing or Developed Nations? Long doubling times High environmental degradation Twenty percent of the world’s

population

Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population Lower fertility rates Improve the lives of people Protect the environment

The Meaning of Absolute Poverty

Malnutrition Illiteracy Disease Squalid

surroundings High infant

mortality Low life expectancy

17 million children under5 die each year

Resolving the Problems of Population Growth and Land Availability

Subdividing farms Opening more land for agriculture Move to cities Engage in illicit activities Move to other countries

How do these “solutions” aggravate the problems?

Population Profiles

Population Profiles

Fertility Rate> 2

Fertility Rate< 2

Projected World Population: Three Different Fertility Scenarios

Population Projections for the United States

Population Projections: Developing Nations

The Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition Comparisons

4 Phases of Demographic TransitionPhase I primitive stability‖ high CBR, high CDRPhase II epidemiologic transition declining CDRPhase III significant population growth declining CBR from declining fertility ratesPhase IV ―modern stability‖ low CBR and CDR

developed countries have completed the demographic transition developing countries are in Phase II and III

Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times

(CBR - CDR)/10 = Rate of Increase or decrease in population as a percentage (because now the rate would be per 100 instead of per 1000)

70/ Rate of Increase = Doubling Time (in yrs)

Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times: Practice

Country CBR /1000

CDR /1000

Annual Rate of Increase

Doubling Time

Kenya 40 15 2.5% 28 yrs

Mexico 22 5 1.7% 41 yrs

USA 14 8

Denmark 12 10

0.6% 117

0.2% 350

3 Important American Environmental Organizations

1886 Audubon Society founded 1892 Sierra Club incorporated (John

Muir as president) 1935 The Wilderness Society founded

Dec 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Released 4th climate change summary for policy makers scientifically showing that “warming of our climate system is unequivocal” and mostly caused by “anthropogenic GHG concentrations”

Please view your American Environmental Movement Timeline document

Add these 3 international events to your timeline…

Dec. 7-20th 2009 COP15 UN Climate Change Conference in Denmark

The “Copenhagen Protocol”?? What will we decide to do to mitigate or correct global heating?

1975 CITES agreement Convention on International Trade in

Endangered Species restricted/regulated international trade of species