Retail is the fine art of separating consumers from their money
We often overestimate how quickly change will happen
We often underestimate the magnitude
of the changes when it does happen
(Gerd Leonhard, Media Futurist, 2009)
“E-Trade Conference 2013”
The Retail Facts Belgium 2013 and the effect of E-commerce on shops in 20 minutes
Gerard Zandbergen @1gerard
Locatus visits 400.000 shops every year
Amsterdam Brussels Barcelona
Overview Belgium: Shops everywhere
212.000 Retail outlets
België: overal lege winkels..
And: vacant units everywhere
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
A1 A2 B1 B2 C
Vacancy Belgium per segment 2013
The 4 big (external) drivers effecting retail
Crisis
Demography
Urbanisation
Technology
Retail drivers:
Bigger
Out-of-Town
Retail Chains
Footfall
Sectors effected: Hearing aids
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sectors effected: Video stores
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Current Direct E-commerce Retail Effects
VERY LIMITED IN BELGIUM Not really there yet..
Video shops -47%
Internet/calling shops -41%
Radio/TV shops -37%
Betting shops -32%
Photo/film shops -30%
Postoffices -28%
DIY small shops -27%
Expected Direct E-commerce Retail Effects
Where to be expected? • Food? • Crafts?
And by When?
We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen
Expected Direct E-commerce Retail Effects, next 5 years
Not at all (hairdressers): 68% Slightly (supermarkets): 20% Large (clothing): 9% Massive (electronics) 3%
We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen
Gerard Zandbergen CEO Locatus International Research Direct: +31348490270 Mobile: +31621553096 Locatus International Research Pelmolenlaan 10 Postbus 139 3440AC Woerden [email protected] www.locatus.com BLOG www.retailreflect.com TWITTER @1gerard