A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR WALES:
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
Andrew How Flood Forecasting Team Leader
Cyfoeth Naturiol Cymru / Natural Resources Wales
WALES Flood Risk Summary Overview
POPULATION
COASTAL
FLUVIAL
With steep, fast responding river catchments; large areas
of exposed coastline and a significant percentage of the population at risk of flooding – there are many challenges
to flood forecasting
POPULATION • 3 million people live in Wales • 1 in 8 people live in properties at risk from fluvial or coastal flooding. • Over half the population of Wales live near to, or on, the coast. • £8 billion worth of assets at risk.
FLUVIAL
Fast responding rivers.
Typical river response; from a normal to severe
event in less than 2 hours.
COASTAL • 1200km of coastline. • Sections of coastline exposed to large Atlantic swell waves and strong onshore winds • 2nd largest tidal range in the world with complex tide / surge interaction. • Large storm surge risk • Significant coastal communities.
• Where have we been?
• Where are we now?
• Where are we going?
• Where have we been?
Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
pRE - 2004
Local dispersed service
Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales 2
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Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
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Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales Centralised Coastal Forecasting
Centralised Fluvial Forecasting
New Coastal Forecasting Model
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Dockable windows
Expanded fluvial forecasting including boundary change
Improved interface
Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
Model improvements
Ensemble forecasting
Improved data feeds
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+ + =
Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
• No IT infrastructure
• No IT kit
• No established ways of working
Former EAWUsers
Former CCW Users
Former FCW UsersNRW
Office 365
Cloud Services
New organisation
• Building our own ICT
– World has changed – cloud
– Government Digital Services (GDS) “Cloud first or justify”
– Large System Integrators vs budgetary challenges
• Economic commitment
– Providing high quality skilled jobs in Wales
Early decisions
Former EAWUsers
Former CCW Users
Former FCW UsersNRW
Office 365
Cloud Services
Former EAWUsers
Former CCW Users
Former FCW UsersNRW
Office 365
Cloud Services
Former EAWUsers
Former CCW Users
Former FCW UsersNRW
Office 365
Cloud Services
Apprenticeship scheme
• First funded Microsoft Apprenticeship scheme in Wales
• 2 year apprenticeship with industry qualification
• Currently we have 9 apprentices
• Scheme has been adopted by other organisations
• Allows organic growth of our ICT Team
Early decisions
• Majority of applications run in cloud
• Many of our servers are cloud based
• We only pay when we are using them
• We can “spin up” a server in less than 5 minutes
• Applications are being simplified as they are migrated
MyNRW Azure VPN Connections Mobile Deployment
CRM Office 365Apprenticeship
SchemeStarLIMS
NRW Kit RolloutIntranet DMS Internet
Yammer Lync VOIP Telephony Mobile Apps
Applications
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Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
Version upgrades
Expanded coverage
Improved and recalibrated models
Templates
Model schematics
Telemetry polling User permissions
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Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
• Where have we been?
• Where are we now?
• Environment Agency replacing NFFS
• Natural Resources Wales establishing own capability
• Migrate existing NFFS for Wales
Wales’ forecasting system
Challenges
• Forecasting system which is hosted on infrastructure based in a separate organisation
• Forecasting system developed > 10 years ago
• New organisation with limited resources
• Limited timescales
• Managing existing system whilst developing the new system
Advantages
• Extensive configuration experience
• Established ways of working
• Open and flexible approach to IT
• Ability to utilise latest technological innovations
• Opportunity to learn from implementations of FEWS around the world
• Where have we been?
• Where are we now?
• Where are we going?
Not just a ‘lift and shift’ of the current setup
Methods of access
Reporting
Sharing data
Archiving
Basic functionality of supporting systems
Probabilistic forecasting
Dynamic assessment of risk
Establish our own capability
Way forward
Improved functionality
Not just a ‘lift and shift’ of the current setup
Methods of access
Reporting
Sharing data
Archiving
Basic functionality of supporting systems
Probabilistic forecasting
Sharing data
Dynamic assessment of risk
Way forward
Establish our own capability
Improved functionality
Sharing data
Sharing data
Basic functionality of supporting systems
Sharing data Basic functionality of supporting systems
Basic functionality of supporting systems
Basic functionality of supporting systems
Basic functionality of supporting systems Improved functionality
Improved functionality
Improved functionality
Improved functionality
Probabilistic forecasting
Improved functionality Probabilistic forecasting
Probabilistic forecasting
• Understanding of uncertainty • Better able to capture range of
risks • Increased processing / cloud
computing • Running all models with all
inputs
Probabilistic forecasting
Dynamic assessment of risk
Dynamic assessment of risk
Dynamic assessment of risk
• Real time updating of risk based on the latest forecast
• Dynamic colouring of flood risk areas
• Sharing data with professional partners
Methods of access
Dynamic assessment of risk Methods of access
Methods of access
App / web access Tailored to mobile working Access forecast meteorological / hydrological data Operational functionality
Full synch Ability to run standalone Full application
Minimal synch / no synch Ability to run models and assess output Operational functionality
Archiving
Archiving Methods of access
Archiving
• Currently using standard FEWS archive • We’ve done little development since implementation • Retrieving data is not always successful • Limited searchability and useability of data • Local working practice to manually archive Local Data Stores – noting any exceedances
• How do we automate this more effectively? • How do we combine archive with additional systems: telemetry data / historical data /
meteorological data? • How do we tailor this for: training / post event analysis / model calibration or verification
/ report generation?
Reporting
Archiving Reporting
Reporting
Reporting
• Where have we been?
• Where are we now?
• Where are we going?
Any questions?