probabilistic flood forecasting at smhi · 2 february, 2009. 3 forecasting toolsforecasting tools ....
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2 February, 2009 1
Probabilistic Flood Forecasting at SMHIProbabilistic Flood Forecasting at SMHI
Torpshammar Sweden, juli 2000
Cristina EdlundProject/System Manager
2 February, 2009 2
FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
Automatic hydrological forecastsAutomatic hydrological forecasts
• Indicator basins, ca 80(SMHI’s real-time gauges);
• HBV-model computations based on grid data;
• Hydrological EPS (Q-EPS);
• Flood probability maps;
• Real-time web based presentation system (WebHypro);
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
Hydrological EPSHydrological EPS
0
100
200
300
04-aug 05-aug 06-aug 07-aug 08-aug 09-aug 10-aug 11-aug 12-aug 13-aug 14-aug
Q (m
3 /s)
HBV model rum with all EPS-members Presentation of hydrological EPS: median, quartile, min/max
0
100
200
300
04-aug 05-aug 06-aug 07-aug 08-aug 09-aug 10-aug 11-aug 12-aug 13-aug 14-aug
Q (m
3/s)
98%75%50%25%2%
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
Hydrological EPS (QHydrological EPS (Q--EPS)EPS)
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
Operational run of Operational run of QQ--EPSEPS
QQ--EPSEPSMade operational during 2004:
Set up EPS-runs into the hydrological production platform;
Set up surveillance routines;
Decides how the result will be presented;
Develop and introduce the Q-EPS presentation into the real-time web based presentation system for hydrological products (WebHypro);
Information/training to end-users;
Run in operational mode since then;
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
HBVSvHBVSv, an HBV-application that covers whole Sweden;
•1001 sub-basins, 200-700 km2;• hydrological EPS and probabilistic
flood forecasting for exceeding a certain warning level for each sub- basin;
•Statistical flood levels calculated for each sub-basin;
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS Flood probability maps for warning level 1, 2 and 3
Example:Flood probability map for exceeding the flood warning level 1, i.e. flood with return period of 2-10 years;Spring flood, May 2008, Sweden
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
High probability=red,
Low probability=blue
Flood Probability Maps on www.smhi.se
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FORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLSFORECASTING TOOLS
Operational run of flood probability mapsOperational run of flood probability maps
Probability maps for exceeding a certain warning level:Probability maps for exceeding a certain warning level:One of the products developed within PREVIEW project (April 2005 – September 2008);
Operational since October 2007;
Development during 2006-2007:Develop methodology for hydrological probability forecasts; implementation into
hydrological production platform; Set up surveillance routines
Calculate statistics for HBVSv;
Investigate how the probability forecast will be presented;
Develop the existing presentation system to fit the requirements for presentation of probability forecasts;
Training of end-users;
Primary end-users: (forecasting) hydrologists/hydrological forecasting centre;
Secondary end-users: receivers of warnings, i.e. Civil Protection, decision makers;