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Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2014 January 14, 2012
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Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 • 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html – And in particular two subsections
• Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
• Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm
– Note specific assignment on Ctools site
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Today
• Who are we? • Course Description Overview • Some Questions and Discussion • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
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What is the Point of View that I Bring?
• Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high-performance computing.
• Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders.
• Wunderground.com “expert” blogger • Teaching this course for the eighth time.
– Changes every year. • Current research – improving the use of knowledge
about climate change in policy and planning.
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Helping with the class
• I have a student who will be helping with the class – Michele Newstadt
• Doctoral student in science education • Graduate of this class
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The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)
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Who are we?
• Name: • Major or Interest: • Any particular reason you wanted to take this course. • Questions of help guide response:
– Homework question – last week’s cold period, where do you get your news?
– When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?
– Do you think that the planet is warming? • Is this warming consequential? • Is this warming manmade? • Can we do something about it?
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What is the Point of View that I Bring?
• “Complex problems with no known solutions.”
• There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs. – Blog data base. – http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page
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Syllabus
• https://ctools.umich.edu/portal/site/4f11c141-a060-4ceb-8013-cb851961192c/page/0b943b09-73c1-42c3-8c28-09df0df8e0b0
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From Course Description
• Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. – Where should we pay attention? – What do we know versus what do we believe?
• Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements – How big is the problem?
• How is all of this changing? • This is not a math-oriented course
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Course requirements
• Because of diverse nature of students and issues associated with climate change and the attributes of real world problem solving discussion is vital.
• There will be a few readings, and you will write short responses (order of 1 page) submitted prior to the lecture through Ctools.
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Course Project
• Reflective of workplace … – “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.”
• Groups of individuals with varied expertise – Instructors will assign
• Responsive to “news” – Relationship of news to science
• Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. – What are first steps? – What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken?
• Monitor progress // briefing during the course • Presentation at end of course
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Course News
• Project – Grade will be primarily determined on the project
• Start to think about them – perhaps even today • Teams that bring together several elements of the project
– Should be no larger than 4 people. – Should not be your friends that have the same background.
• Should be defined by late January – I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. – Some guidance in defining projects
• We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course – That means I will provide management / customer oversight.
• Final presentations at the end
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Course News
• Readings and Participation – This semester I will have some modest
requirements during the term in addition to the project.
– Reading and Response – Descriptions of key figures
• What do I mean?
– 4 or 5 papers to read and discuss • The world 4 degrees warmer
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Climate Change Relationships
• Consumption // Population // Energy
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
SO
CIE
TAL
SU
CC
ES
S
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Projected Global Temperature Trends
IPCC ‘01
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
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Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change • Some global climate predictions
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The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)
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Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100!
Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial.
The prediction:
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Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
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Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
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IPCC 2007: The last
~100 years
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What parameters/events do we care about?
• Temperature • Water
– Precipitation – Evaporation – Humidity
• Air Composition – Air quality – Aerosols – Carbon dioxide
• Winds • Clouds / Sunlight
• Droughts • Floods
• Extreme Weather
The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate
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SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences)
Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs
information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
Security Food
Environmental National
Societal Success Standard of Living ...???...
ECONOMICS POLICY
“BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE
ENERGY RELIGION ??????
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Thanks