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Pacing Profiles in World Championship 2000m Rowing: Explored through k-Shape ClusteringDani Chu, Ryan Sheehan, Dr. Jack Davis, and Dr. Ming Chang-Tsai
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Outline
▸ World Championship 2000m Rowing Data
▸ k-Shape Clustering
▸ Factors associated with Pacing Profiles
▸ Limitations and Future Work
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Datawww.worldrowing.com:
▸ Olympics ▸ Continental
▸ Paralympics ▸ Under 23
▸ World Championships ▸ Junior
▸ World Cups ▸ Continental
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Data: www.worldrowing.com
Media Start List Race Data Results
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Data: www.worldrowing.com
1. Scrape PDF files from World Championships2. For each race, extract data from the 3 PDFs3. Join the race data from the 3 PDFs4. Combine all races into one file5. Make code and data available on github!
github.com/danichusfu/rowing_pacing_profiles
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Goals!
▸ Identify the pacing profiles being used by each boat in World Championship 2000m Rowing
▸ Identify which race factors are associated with exhibiting a pacing profile
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Identification of Pacing Profiles
▸ Cluster boats based on their average speed at each 50m split
▸ Problems:● Magnitudes of average speed depend on factors
such as boat size, weight class, age group and gender
● Longitudinal data
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Raw Speed Curves
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Normalized Speed Curves
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k-Shape Clustering▸ Iterative process to minimize distance for an
observation to a cluster centroid
▸ Uses Shape-based distance (SBD) (Paparrizos and Gravano 2016) as an alternative to Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)
▸ SBD is computationally more efficient than DTW
● O(m log(m)) to O(m2)
▸ Small sacrifice in accuracy in experimental settings
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Cluster Centroids
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Pacing Profiles
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Boat Sizes
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Modelling Pacing Profiles
▸ Response variable is the identified pacing profile
▸ Modelled as a function of race factors
▸ Using multinomial logistic regression
● Even profile is the baseline
● Report the relative risk ratio for a one-unit increase in the variable
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Model Results
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Boat Sizes and Heat/Final
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Boat Sizes, Heat/Final and Placement
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Limitations
▸ Observational Data
▸ Interaction terms are not fit in the model
▸ Cannot choose a “optimal” profile to help coaches and athletes
▸ Only uses World Championship Races
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Conclusions
▸ Can identify pacing profiles with k-Shape Clustering
▸ Interesting preliminary results for which race factors affect pacing profiles
▸ Available data: github.com/danichusfu/rowing_pacing_profiles
▸ I’d love your feedback and thoughts!
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Dani Chu
@chuurveg
danichusfu.github.io
Ryan Sheehan
Dr. Jack Davis
@jack_davis_sfu
sfu.ca/~jackd/
THANKS!
Any Questions?
Dr. Ming Chang-Tsai
@ming_chang_tsai
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References[1] Chris R. Abbiss and Paul B. Laursen. Describing and understanding pacing strategies during athletic competition.Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.), 38:239–52, 03 2008.
[2] Stephen W. Garland. An analysis of the pacing strategy adopted by elite competitors in 2000 m rowing.British Journal of Sports Medicine,39(1):39–42, 2005.
[3] Thomas Muehlbauer and Thomas Melges. Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.The Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research, 25, 2011.
[4] Thomas Muehlbauer, Christian Schindler, and Alexander Widmer. Pac-ing pattern and performance during the 2008 olympic rowing regatta.European Journal of Sport Science, 10(5):291–296, 2010.
[5] John Paparrizos and Luis Gravano. k-shape: Efficient and accurate clustering of time series.SIGMOD Rec., 45(1):69–76, June 2016.
[6] Alexis Sarda-Espinosa.dtwclust: Time Series Clustering Along with Optimizations for the Dynamic Time Warping Distance, 2018. R package version 5.5.0