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California Energy Commission
Transportation Electrification
Electricity and Natural Gas Model Inputs Workshop
Rosenfeld Hearing Room
February 26, 2015
Aniss Bahreinian
Demand Analysis Office
Energy Assessments Division
[email protected]/ 916-653-0381
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California Energy Commission
Transportation Electrification
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California Energy Commission
Off-Road Transportation with Electrification Option(Source: EPRI, 2011 http://www.smartgridinformation.info/pdf/4525_doc_1.pdf )
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California Energy Commission
Transportation Energy Forecasting Models
• Sector-specific demand models, each representing consumption behavior of that sector
• All economic models, accounting for the impact of time and/or cost of an activity or a product, as well as income and/or economic output in the choice process
• Account for tank-to-wheel energy consumption only
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California Energy Commission
Light Duty Vehicle Demand (LDV) Forecasting Models
• Use behavioral models to forecast statewide population of on-road Electric Vehicles (EV) and Plug in Hybrid Electric (PHEV) in California, separately for commercial and residential sectors
• The LDV models account for inter-fuel competition, between all fuel types, as well as competition between different classes of vehicles, on:
• Fuel Prices• Vehicle Prices• Fuel Economy• Range• Other vehicle and fueling attributes
• Use a simple growth model to forecast Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEV)
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California Energy Commission
Other Transportation Electricity UseStatewide Electricity Use (Tank to Wheel)• Light Rail/Other electrified urban transit• High Speed Rail (post-processed, using Cal HSR assumptions
and output)• On-Road goods movement & service trucks (Freight)
Transportation Communication and Utilities (TCU) electricity demand model forecasts the stationary use of electricity in transportation-related facilities and buildings, such as transit stations, rail stations, high speed rail stations, fuel stations and others.
Aspen Environmental Group will be forecasting electricity used in:• Sea ports & airports• Other off-road stationary and mobile equipment uses of electricity
in transportation6
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California Energy Commission
Key Inputs Specific to On-Road Transportation Energy Demand Forecast
Energy Prices• Staff forecast of petroleum-based fuel prices is based on EIA
crude oil price forecasts. • Electricity and natural gas price forecasts are the same as those
used in the division’s electricity and natural gas demand models.
Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEV) • Vehicle prices, fuel economy, and other attributes will be
provided by Sierra Research.
Consumer Preferences• Assume these preferences remain constant, at levels assessed
by the Commission’s 2013 California Vehicle Survey7
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California Energy Commission
Other Transportation Electrification Assumptions and Inputs
• No preference-based or economic models exist to forecast off-road vehicle or equipment populations.
• Aspen Environmental Group will attempt to use projections or extrapolations of present inventories from different agencies, such as ARB, EIA, ports, airports, and other existing studies of the various applications.
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California Energy Commission
Proposed Demand CasesIEPR Common Cases• High Energy Demand (low energy prices, high income)
• Mid Energy Demand (mid energy prices and income)
• Low Energy Demand (high energy prices, low income)
Transportation-Specific Demand Cases• High petroleum demand (low liquid fuel prices; high income; high CNG,
electricity & hydrogen prices)
• Low petroleum demand (high liquid fuel prices; low income; low CNG, electricity & hydrogen prices)
All Demand Cases Assume:• Vehicles: All current Fed & State regs are in place for original
equipment manufacturers, including Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV).
• Fuels: All current Fed & State regs are in place for transportation fuel suppliers.
• Vehicle & liquid fuel prices are independent of California demand.
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California Energy Commission
Interested?Please attend the March 19, 2015 Workshop on
Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecast
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