california energy commission transportation electrification electricity and natural gas model inputs...

California Energy Commission

Transportation Electrification

Electricity and Natural Gas Model Inputs Workshop

Rosenfeld Hearing Room

February 26, 2015

Aniss Bahreinian

Demand Analysis Office

Energy Assessments Division

[email protected]/ 916-653-0381

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Transportation Electrification

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Off-Road Transportation with Electrification Option(Source: EPRI, 2011 http://www.smartgridinformation.info/pdf/4525_doc_1.pdf )

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Transportation Energy Forecasting Models

• Sector-specific demand models, each representing consumption behavior of that sector

• All economic models, accounting for the impact of time and/or cost of an activity or a product, as well as income and/or economic output in the choice process

• Account for tank-to-wheel energy consumption only

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Light Duty Vehicle Demand (LDV) Forecasting Models

• Use behavioral models to forecast statewide population of on-road Electric Vehicles (EV) and Plug in Hybrid Electric (PHEV) in California, separately for commercial and residential sectors

• The LDV models account for inter-fuel competition, between all fuel types, as well as competition between different classes of vehicles, on:

• Fuel Prices• Vehicle Prices• Fuel Economy• Range• Other vehicle and fueling attributes

• Use a simple growth model to forecast Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEV)

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Other Transportation Electricity UseStatewide Electricity Use (Tank to Wheel)• Light Rail/Other electrified urban transit• High Speed Rail (post-processed, using Cal HSR assumptions

and output)• On-Road goods movement & service trucks (Freight)

Transportation Communication and Utilities (TCU) electricity demand model forecasts the stationary use of electricity in transportation-related facilities and buildings, such as transit stations, rail stations, high speed rail stations, fuel stations and others.

Aspen Environmental Group will be forecasting electricity used in:• Sea ports & airports• Other off-road stationary and mobile equipment uses of electricity

in transportation6


Key Inputs Specific to On-Road Transportation Energy Demand Forecast

Energy Prices• Staff forecast of petroleum-based fuel prices is based on EIA

crude oil price forecasts. • Electricity and natural gas price forecasts are the same as those

used in the division’s electricity and natural gas demand models.

Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEV) • Vehicle prices, fuel economy, and other attributes will be

provided by Sierra Research.

Consumer Preferences• Assume these preferences remain constant, at levels assessed

by the Commission’s 2013 California Vehicle Survey7


Other Transportation Electrification Assumptions and Inputs

• No preference-based or economic models exist to forecast off-road vehicle or equipment populations.

• Aspen Environmental Group will attempt to use projections or extrapolations of present inventories from different agencies, such as ARB, EIA, ports, airports, and other existing studies of the various applications.

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Proposed Demand CasesIEPR Common Cases• High Energy Demand (low energy prices, high income)

• Mid Energy Demand (mid energy prices and income)

• Low Energy Demand (high energy prices, low income)

Transportation-Specific Demand Cases• High petroleum demand (low liquid fuel prices; high income; high CNG,

electricity & hydrogen prices)

• Low petroleum demand (high liquid fuel prices; low income; low CNG, electricity & hydrogen prices)

All Demand Cases Assume:• Vehicles: All current Fed & State regs are in place for original

equipment manufacturers, including Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV).

• Fuels: All current Fed & State regs are in place for transportation fuel suppliers.

• Vehicle & liquid fuel prices are independent of California demand.

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Interested?Please attend the March 19, 2015 Workshop on

Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecast

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california energy commission transportation electrification electricity and natural gas model inputs...

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