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BlackSwansandBurs.ness:CounteringMythsAboutTerrorism
GaryLaFreeUniversityofMaryland
BTIIns7tute
UniversityofTexasatElPasoJune1,2017
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Na7onalConsor7umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity
STARTMissionSTARTadvancesscience-basedknowledge
aboutthehumancausesandconsequencesofterrorismasaresourceforhomelandsecuritypolicymakers
andprac..oners.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity
TheImpactofBlackSwanEvents
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity
“Bursty”processes
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity
GTDTHEN…
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
GTDNOW…
Thousands of sources worldwide
generate more than 1.6 million
articles per day.
Initial searches return ~50,000 articles per week.
About 7 percent are potentially
relevant to terrorist attacks
GTD staff identify hundreds of unique terrorist attacks per month and record
120+ points of information about each
one.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
FINDINGOPENSOURCEARTICLESABOUTTERRORISTATTACKS
Step1:BooleanfiltersuseaXack-specifickeywordstoinclude/excludear7cles.
Step2:NaturalLanguageProcessing§ Deduplica7on:Removalof
ar7clesthatare>82.5%similar§ Loca7onextrac7on
Step3:MachineLearningmodelclassifiestheremainingar7clesasrelevantornotrelevant.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Num
bero
fAr.cles
Date
nClassifiedasrelevant
nClassifiedasnotrelevant
The initial pool of sources comes from a media aggregator called Metabase, which we supplement with additional content from specific
media sources and Open Source Center (opensource.gov)
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity
EightMyths
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH1.TerroristaKackswererapidlyincreasingintheyearsleadingupto9/11.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
AnnualAXacksWorldwide,1970to2015(N=156,772)
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase
TERRORISMINTHEUNITEDSTATES,1970-2014(N=2649)
Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Num
bero
fAKacks
Year
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 2: Terrorist attacks reach every corner of the world.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity
TERRORISTATTACKS,2013
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
TopTenCountriesforTerrorism,1970-2014
Rank CountryCumula.ve%ofAll
AKacksCumula.ve%ofAll
Countries1 Iraq 11.29 0.482 Pakistan 19.40 0.973 India 25.79 1.454 Colombia 31.38 1.935 Afghanistan 36.85 2.426 Peru 41.13 2.907 ElSalvador 44.88 3.388 UnitedKingdom 48.32 3.869 Philippines 51.74 4.3510 Spain 54.03 4.83
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 3: The U.S. is more frequently targeted by terrorists than any other country in the world.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
TWENTYTOPRANKINGCOUNTRIES,TOTALATTACKSANDFATALITIES,1970TO2014MostFrequentlyAKacked MostFatali.es
Rank Country AKacks Country Fatali.es1 Iraq 16023 Iraq 497602 Pakistan 11522 Afghanistan 208083 India 9069 Pakistan 199464 Colombia 7942 India 179575 Afghanistan 7765 SriLanka 155196 Peru 6075 Colombia 144607 ElSalvador 5320 Nigeria 131588 UnitedKingdom 4881 Peru 127469 Philippines 4860 ElSalvador 1205310 Spain 3242 Algeria 1106111 Turkey 3144 Nicaragua 1059812 Thailand 3074 Philippines 820113 SriLanka 2969 Syria 644714 Algeria 2704 Somalia 527615 UnitedStates 2646 Turkey 518916 France 2580 Guatemala 516717 Somalia 2482 Russia 416118 Lebanon 2374 Yemen 412319 Chile 2336 Lebanon 389120 Nigeria 2251 Burundi 3888
Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
But…foiledjihadiplotsincreasing…
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 4: Most terrorist attacks involve disgruntled groups and individuals from one country carrying out attacks on civilians in other countries.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
TotalAc.vityby53StateDepartment-DesignatedFTOs
3.4%(570)
96.6%(16,346)
9.4%(3,943)
90.6%(38,113)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
AKacksonUSTargets AKacksonNonUSTargets
AXacks Fatali7es
LaFree,YangandCrenshaw(2009)
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 5: Terrorism is unrelated to traditional political grievances.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
TOPTWENTYPERPETRATORORGANIZATIONS:TOTALTERRORISTATTACKS,1970TO2013PerpetratorGroup AXacks Fatali7es
1 ShiningPath(SL) 4534 115812 FarabundoMar7Na7onalLibera7onFront(FMLN) 3351 80653 Taliban 3221 101144 IrishRepublicanArmy(IRA) 2673 18095 Revolu7onaryArmedForcesofColombia(FARC) 2251 55466 CommunistPartyofIndia-Maoist(CPI-Maoist)/Maoists 2127 20087 BasqueFatherlandandFreedom(ETA) 2027 8188 NewPeople'sArmy(NPA) 1634 37039 Libera7onTigersofTamilEelam(LTTE) 1607 1096710 KurdistanWorkers'Party(PKK) 1389 494311 Na7onalLibera7onArmyofColombia(ELN) 1361 181812 NicaraguanDemocra7cForce(FDN) 895 666213 Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan(TTP) 876 415114 Al-Shabaab 872 239815ManuelRodriguezPatrio7cFront(FPMR) 830 9316 BokoHaram 808 368617 CorsicanNa7onalLibera7onFront(FLNC) 639 1318 Al-Qa`idainIraq 636 414119 AfricanNa7onalCongress(SouthAfrica) 606 63320M-19(MovementofApril19) 564 1402Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 6: Most terrorist attacks are incredibly lethal.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
LETHALITYOFTERRORISTATTACKS,1970-2014(N=141,966)
55.40%
19.72%
11.37%9.03%
2.96% 1.21%0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
0 1-2 2-4 5-10 11-25 >25
Percen
tofA
Kacks
NumberofFatali.es
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 7: Most terrorist attacks rely on sophisticated weaponry.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
WEAPONSUSEDINTERRORISTATTACKS,1970-2014(N=141,966)
Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite,49.80%
Firearms,33.72%
Unknown,7.78%
Incendiary,6.44%
Melee,1.86% Other,0.40%
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
MYTH 8: Most terrorist organizations are long lasting and difficult to eradicate.
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
LONGEVITYOFTERRORISTGROUPS,1970-2014
Source: Global Terrorism Database
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
<1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 >10
Percen
tofa
llPe
rpetua
torG
roup
s
LifeSpan(years)
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
But terrorism also tends to be “bursty.”
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US Attack Trajectories
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4 19
70
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
21st Century Boom (4.3%) Short Lived (43.5%) 70s Boom (22.8%) 80s Boom (29.5%)
32
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Share of World-Wide attacks by Country
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year
Av
era
ge
# o
f E
ve
nts
G1 (41.2%) G2 (28.3%) G3 (13.5%) G4 (7.0%) G5 (10.0%)
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Aerial Hijackings, 1948-2007
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
Suicide Bombings Worldwide, 1970-2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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IED Attacks Worldwide, 2000-2010
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
TOPTWENTYPERPETRATORORGANIZATIONS:TOTALTERRORISTATTACKS,2014PerpetratorGroupName AKacks Fatali.es Injuries
IslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL) 1241 9324 1241Taliban 1032 4110.34 1032Al-Shabaab 864 1782 864BokoHaram 493 7112 493DonetskPeople'sRepublic 325 1005.33 325NewPeople'sArmy(NPA) 289 188 289Al-Qa`idaintheArabianPeninsula(AQAP) 283 873.5 283Maoists 253 116 253Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan(TTP) 166 781 166Revolu7onaryArmedForcesofColombia(FARC) 163 88 163FulaniMilitants 161 1251 161Huthis 134 234 134MuslimFundamentalists 131 158 131LuhanskPeople'sRepublic 110 172.87 110Separa7sts 104 47 104BalochRepublicanArmy(BRA) 101 51.99 101Janjaweed 97 203 97BangsamoroIslamicFreedomMovement(BIFM) 87 98 87Al-NusrahFront 72 767 72CommunistPartyofIndia-Maoist(CPI-Maoist) 68 71 68Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase
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Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism
THANKS!
GaryLaFree([email protected])
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0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
prob
abili
ty p
(τ)
days between repeat crimes (τ)
repeatcrimeismuchmorelikelytohappeninashortintervalof.meacerthefirstevent
Near Repeat Crime Distributions
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Event Dependence in IED attacks Najaf
0
50
100
150
200
0 100 200 300
Num
ber o
f Eve
nts
Waiting Time (τ)
strong exact-repeat effect to at least 28 days
ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.
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Crime Patterns in Space & Time
residen7alburglaries2006Hollenbeck,n=384
gangshoo7ngs2006Hollenbeck,n=540
ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.
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BaghdadJan–May2007
5769IEDevents
ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.
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Province Level Distribution of ETA Attacks for the Two Major Attack Periods, 1970-2007
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IndependentVariables Model2(logis.cModel)Same/Con.guousvs.Non-AdjacentProvince
TimePeriod
Phase2(1980–2007) -.66**
TimeGapBetweenIncidents
TimeGap(indays) -.02***
GeographicRegions
BAC 1.92***
Navarra .87***
Madrid -.60***
Predicting the Next ETA Attack (N = 1,890)
* p < .05; ** p < .01; *** p < .001
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Time and Space
Distribution of ETA and
FMLN attacks
ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault
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Terrorist Tactics by ETA and the FMLN associated with Microcycles
(Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects)
Variable ExpβETA
(1970-2007)(SE)
ExpβFMLN
(1980-1992)(SE)
Testfordifferenceofβ
(Sig.)
Assassina.ons 1.068(/257)
1.651(.663
.929(.177)
Bombings 1.623*(.322)
3.129***(.855)
1.944*(.026)
ArmedAssaults 1.249(.332)
1.275(.336)
.057(.477)
FatalAKack .738*(.114)
.595***(.069)
-1.115(.132)
ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault
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Location of ETA and FMLN attacks and Microcycles (Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects)
Variable ExpβETA
(1970-2007)(SE)
ExpβFMLN
(1980-1992)(SE)
Testfordifferenceofβ
(Sig.)
Na.onalCapital 5.970***(1.425)
40.994***(12.856)
4.889***(.000)
Provincial/RegionalCapital 3.598***(.419)
1.135(.169)
-6.111***(.000)
DefendedSpace 2.394***(.329)
1.234*(.127)
-3.861***(.000)
ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault