black swans and bursness : countering myths about terrorism · 2020. 2. 20. · 1 iraq 11.29 0.48 2...

BlackSwansandBurs.ness:CounteringMythsAboutTerrorism

GaryLaFreeUniversityofMaryland

BTIIns7tute

UniversityofTexasatElPasoJune1,2017

Na7onalConsor7umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

STARTMissionSTARTadvancesscience-basedknowledge

aboutthehumancausesandconsequencesofterrorismasaresourceforhomelandsecuritypolicymakers

andprac..oners.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

TheImpactofBlackSwanEvents


“Bursty”processes


GTDTHEN…


GTDNOW…

Thousands of sources worldwide

generate more than 1.6 million

articles per day.

Initial searches return ~50,000 articles per week.

About 7 percent are potentially

relevant to terrorist attacks

GTD staff identify hundreds of unique terrorist attacks per month and record

120+ points of information about each

one.


FINDINGOPENSOURCEARTICLESABOUTTERRORISTATTACKS

Step1:BooleanfiltersuseaXack-specifickeywordstoinclude/excludear7cles.

Step2:NaturalLanguageProcessing§  Deduplica7on:Removalof

ar7clesthatare>82.5%similar§  Loca7onextrac7on

Step3:MachineLearningmodelclassifiestheremainingar7clesasrelevantornotrelevant.

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nClassifiedasrelevant

nClassifiedasnotrelevant

The initial pool of sources comes from a media aggregator called Metabase, which we supplement with additional content from specific

media sources and Open Source Center (opensource.gov)


EightMyths


MYTH1.TerroristaKackswererapidlyincreasingintheyearsleadingupto9/11.


AnnualAXacksWorldwide,1970to2015(N=156,772)


Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

TERRORISMINTHEUNITEDSTATES,1970-2014(N=2649)


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MYTH 2: Terrorist attacks reach every corner of the world.


TERRORISTATTACKS,2013


TopTenCountriesforTerrorism,1970-2014

Rank CountryCumula.ve%ofAll

AKacksCumula.ve%ofAll

Countries1 Iraq 11.29 0.482 Pakistan 19.40 0.973 India 25.79 1.454 Colombia 31.38 1.935 Afghanistan 36.85 2.426 Peru 41.13 2.907 ElSalvador 44.88 3.388 UnitedKingdom 48.32 3.869 Philippines 51.74 4.3510 Spain 54.03 4.83


MYTH 3: The U.S. is more frequently targeted by terrorists than any other country in the world.


TWENTYTOPRANKINGCOUNTRIES,TOTALATTACKSANDFATALITIES,1970TO2014MostFrequentlyAKacked MostFatali.es

Rank Country AKacks Country Fatali.es1 Iraq 16023 Iraq 497602 Pakistan 11522 Afghanistan 208083 India 9069 Pakistan 199464 Colombia 7942 India 179575 Afghanistan 7765 SriLanka 155196 Peru 6075 Colombia 144607 ElSalvador 5320 Nigeria 131588 UnitedKingdom 4881 Peru 127469 Philippines 4860 ElSalvador 1205310 Spain 3242 Algeria 1106111 Turkey 3144 Nicaragua 1059812 Thailand 3074 Philippines 820113 SriLanka 2969 Syria 644714 Algeria 2704 Somalia 527615 UnitedStates 2646 Turkey 518916 France 2580 Guatemala 516717 Somalia 2482 Russia 416118 Lebanon 2374 Yemen 412319 Chile 2336 Lebanon 389120 Nigeria 2251 Burundi 3888



But…foiledjihadiplotsincreasing…


MYTH 4: Most terrorist attacks involve disgruntled groups and individuals from one country carrying out attacks on civilians in other countries.


TotalAc.vityby53StateDepartment-DesignatedFTOs

3.4%(570)

96.6%(16,346)

9.4%(3,943)

90.6%(38,113)

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AXacks Fatali7es

LaFree,YangandCrenshaw(2009)


MYTH 5: Terrorism is unrelated to traditional political grievances.


TOPTWENTYPERPETRATORORGANIZATIONS:TOTALTERRORISTATTACKS,1970TO2013PerpetratorGroup AXacks Fatali7es

1 ShiningPath(SL) 4534 115812 FarabundoMar7Na7onalLibera7onFront(FMLN) 3351 80653 Taliban 3221 101144 IrishRepublicanArmy(IRA) 2673 18095 Revolu7onaryArmedForcesofColombia(FARC) 2251 55466 CommunistPartyofIndia-Maoist(CPI-Maoist)/Maoists 2127 20087 BasqueFatherlandandFreedom(ETA) 2027 8188 NewPeople'sArmy(NPA) 1634 37039 Libera7onTigersofTamilEelam(LTTE) 1607 1096710 KurdistanWorkers'Party(PKK) 1389 494311 Na7onalLibera7onArmyofColombia(ELN) 1361 181812 NicaraguanDemocra7cForce(FDN) 895 666213 Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan(TTP) 876 415114 Al-Shabaab 872 239815ManuelRodriguezPatrio7cFront(FPMR) 830 9316 BokoHaram 808 368617 CorsicanNa7onalLibera7onFront(FLNC) 639 1318 Al-Qa`idainIraq 636 414119 AfricanNa7onalCongress(SouthAfrica) 606 63320M-19(MovementofApril19) 564 1402Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase


MYTH 6: Most terrorist attacks are incredibly lethal.


LETHALITYOFTERRORISTATTACKS,1970-2014(N=141,966)

55.40%

19.72%

11.37%9.03%

2.96% 1.21%0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

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Percen

tofA

Kacks

NumberofFatali.es


MYTH 7: Most terrorist attacks rely on sophisticated weaponry.


WEAPONSUSEDINTERRORISTATTACKS,1970-2014(N=141,966)


Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite,49.80%

Firearms,33.72%

Unknown,7.78%

Incendiary,6.44%

Melee,1.86% Other,0.40%


MYTH 8: Most terrorist organizations are long lasting and difficult to eradicate.


LONGEVITYOFTERRORISTGROUPS,1970-2014

Source: Global Terrorism Database

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60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

<1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 >10

Percen

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rpetua

torG

roup

s

LifeSpan(years)


But terrorism also tends to be “bursty.”

US Attack Trajectories

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21st Century Boom (4.3%) Short Lived (43.5%) 70s Boom (22.8%) 80s Boom (29.5%)

32

Share of World-Wide attacks by Country

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1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

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# o

f E

ve

nts

G1 (41.2%) G2 (28.3%) G3 (13.5%) G4 (7.0%) G5 (10.0%)

Aerial Hijackings, 1948-2007


Suicide Bombings Worldwide, 1970-2014

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IED Attacks Worldwide, 2000-2010


TOPTWENTYPERPETRATORORGANIZATIONS:TOTALTERRORISTATTACKS,2014PerpetratorGroupName AKacks Fatali.es Injuries

IslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL) 1241 9324 1241Taliban 1032 4110.34 1032Al-Shabaab 864 1782 864BokoHaram 493 7112 493DonetskPeople'sRepublic 325 1005.33 325NewPeople'sArmy(NPA) 289 188 289Al-Qa`idaintheArabianPeninsula(AQAP) 283 873.5 283Maoists 253 116 253Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan(TTP) 166 781 166Revolu7onaryArmedForcesofColombia(FARC) 163 88 163FulaniMilitants 161 1251 161Huthis 134 234 134MuslimFundamentalists 131 158 131LuhanskPeople'sRepublic 110 172.87 110Separa7sts 104 47 104BalochRepublicanArmy(BRA) 101 51.99 101Janjaweed 97 203 97BangsamoroIslamicFreedomMovement(BIFM) 87 98 87Al-NusrahFront 72 767 72CommunistPartyofIndia-Maoist(CPI-Maoist) 68 71 68Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase


THANKS!

GaryLaFree([email protected])

www.start.umd.edu/gtd

www.start.umd.edu/newsletters

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days between repeat crimes (τ)

repeatcrimeismuchmorelikelytohappeninashortintervalof.meacerthefirstevent

Near Repeat Crime Distributions

Event Dependence in IED attacks Najaf

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strong exact-repeat effect to at least 28 days

ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.

Crime Patterns in Space & Time

residen7alburglaries2006Hollenbeck,n=384

gangshoo7ngs2006Hollenbeck,n=540


BaghdadJan–May2007

5769IEDevents


Province Level Distribution of ETA Attacks for the Two Major Attack Periods, 1970-2007

IndependentVariables Model2(logis.cModel)Same/Con.guousvs.Non-AdjacentProvince

TimePeriod

Phase2(1980–2007) -.66**

TimeGapBetweenIncidents

TimeGap(indays) -.02***

GeographicRegions

BAC 1.92***

Navarra .87***

Madrid -.60***

Predicting the Next ETA Attack (N = 1,890)

* p < .05; ** p < .01; *** p < .001

Time and Space

Distribution of ETA and

FMLN attacks

ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault

Terrorist Tactics by ETA and the FMLN associated with Microcycles

(Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects)

Variable ExpβETA

(1970-2007)(SE)

ExpβFMLN

(1980-1992)(SE)

Testfordifferenceofβ

(Sig.)

Assassina.ons 1.068(/257)

1.651(.663

.929(.177)

Bombings 1.623*(.322)

3.129***(.855)

1.944*(.026)

ArmedAssaults 1.249(.332)

1.275(.336)

.057(.477)

FatalAKack .738*(.114)

.595***(.069)

-1.115(.132)


Location of ETA and FMLN attacks and Microcycles (Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects)

Variable ExpβETA

(1970-2007)(SE)

ExpβFMLN

(1980-1992)(SE)

Testfordifferenceofβ

(Sig.)

Na.onalCapital 5.970***(1.425)

40.994***(12.856)

4.889***(.000)

Provincial/RegionalCapital 3.598***(.419)

1.135(.169)

-6.111***(.000)

DefendedSpace 2.394***(.329)

1.234*(.127)

-3.861***(.000)


black swans and bursness : countering myths about terrorism · 2020. 2. 20. · 1 iraq 11.29 0.48 2...

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