Download - Atlanta May 2011 Static99-R
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Changes in Risk AssessmentChanges in Risk Assessment
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RRASORRRASOR
1) Prior sexual charges or1) Prior sexual charges orconvictionsconvictions
2) Victim gender2) Victim gender
3) Age3) Age
4) Relationship to victim4) Relationship to victim
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Static99Static99
RRASOR plus 6 itemsRRASOR plus 6 items
1. Prior sentencing dates1. Prior sentencing dates2. Noncontact offenses2. Noncontact offenses
3. Index nonsexual violence3. Index nonsexual violence
4. Prior non4. Prior non--sexual violencesexual violence
5. Stranger victim5. Stranger victim
6. Single6. Single
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Three Generations of RiskThree Generations of Risk
AssessmentAssessmentClinical JudgmentClinical Judgment
Actuarial AssessmentActuarial Assessment
Actuarial Plus DynamicActuarial Plus Dynamic
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Approaches to RiskApproaches to Risk
AssessmentAssessmentdd SubjectsSubjects StudiesStudies
Unstructured clinicalUnstructured clinical .43.43 1,7231,723 99
Structured professionalStructured professional
judgmentjudgment .41.41 844844 55
Actuarial (sex)Actuarial (sex) .70.70 14,16014,160 5555
(Hanson & Morton(Hanson & Morton--BourgonBourgon 2007)2007)
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What Does Static99 Measure?What Does Static99 Measure?
Who Gets CaughtWho Gets Caught
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Differential DisclosureDifferential Disclosure
IncestIncest
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When Did Child Rarely DiscloseWhen Did Child Rarely Disclose
Natural ParentNatural Parent
ImmediatelyImmediately 17%17%
LaterLater 30%30%
NeverNever 55%55%
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Differential DisclosureDifferential Disclosure
Abused and neglected childrenAbused and neglected children
Skillful offendersSkillful offenders
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Decline in Crime 2008Decline in Crime 2008
Decline in Rape & Sexual AssaultDecline in Rape & Sexual Assault
19991999--20082008
53%53%
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Base Rates MatterBase Rates Matter
MoreMore
OrOrFewerFewer
ReoffendersReoffenders for each scorefor each score
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Multiple NormsMultiple Norms
Routine Sex Offenders (CSC)Routine Sex Offenders (CSC)
Treatment SamplesTreatment Samples
NonroutineNonroutine SamplesSamples
High Risk SamplesHigh Risk Samples
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Which Norms to UseWhich Norms to Use
Correctional Services ofCanadaCorrectional Services ofCanada
Routine CasesRoutine Cases
N = 2406N = 2406No screening proceduresNo screening procedures
No preNo pre--selection forselection for txtx, or civil commitment, or civil commitment
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Which Norms To Use?Which Norms To Use?
Preselected for TreatmentPreselected for Treatment
Referred for sex offender specificReferred for sex offender specifictreatment during current or priortreatment during current or priorincarcerationincarceration
Selected but no beds still selectedSelected but no beds still selected
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NonNon--routineroutine
Treatment sampleTreatment sample
High risk samplesHigh risk samples
Preselected for other reasons, e.g.,Preselected for other reasons, e.g.,
offenseoffense severiseveri
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Which Norms to UseWhich Norms to Use
High Risk SampleHigh Risk Sample
Preselected for riskPreselected for risk
Factors external to StaticFactors external to Static--9999
SVP referral, mentally disordered, notSVP referral, mentally disordered, notguilty by reason of insanity, referred forguilty by reason of insanity, referred for
intensive treatmentintensive treatment
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NormsNorms
Most cases will use routine correctionalMost cases will use routine correctionalsamplesample
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Scores Versus RecidivismScores Versus Recidivism
Original NormsOriginal NormsScoreScore RiskRisk YearsYears55 1010 1515
0,10,1 LowLow 6%6% 9%9% 10%10%
2,32,3 Med/LowMed/Low 10%10% 14%14% 18%18%
4,54,5 Med/HighMed/High 29%29% 33%33% 38%38%
6+6+ HighHigh 39%39% 45%45% 52%52%
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New Norms 10 YearsNew Norms 10 YearsScore Routine5
Observ11ed
Routine
Adjusted
Treatment
Need
High Risk
-3 1.4 1.8 3.2
-2 1.8 2.4 4.2
-1 2.3 3.3 5.4 9.8
0 3 4.4 7 12.5
1 3.9 5.7 9 15.7
2 5.1 7.6 11.5 19.7
3 6.6 10 14.5 24.3
4 8.4 13 18.2 29.6
5 10.8 16.9 22.6 35.56 13.7 21.7 27.6 41.9
7 17.2 27.8 33.3 48.6
8 21.4 35 39.6 55.3
9 26.3 43.3 46.2 61.9
10 68
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High Risk SampleHigh Risk Sample
BengtsonBengtson, 2008, 2008
PrePre--trial psychiatrictrial psychiatric evaleval in Denmarkin Denmark
Suspected of retardation or psychosisSuspected of retardation or psychosis
BontaBonta && YessineYessine, 2005, 2005
Dangerous OffendersDangerous Offenders--Indeterminate sentencesIndeterminate sentences
Potential Dangerous OffendersPotential Dangerous Offenders
Violent Offense after MRViolent Offense after MR
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High Risk SampleHigh Risk Sample
Haag, 2005Haag, 2005
All Canadian offenders released at MRAll Canadian offenders released at MR
Knight and Thornton, 2007Knight and Thornton, 2007
Massachusetts Treatment CenterMassachusetts Treatment Center--
Assessed or treated between 1959Assessed or treated between 1959 --19841984
Sexually dangerous personsSexually dangerous persons
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High Risk SamplesHigh Risk Samples
NicholaichukNicholaichuk, 2001, 2001
Treated at Clearwater treatmentTreated at Clearwater treatment
programprogram maximum securitymaximum securityforensic mental health facilityforensic mental health facility
Wilson & colleaguesWilson & colleaguesDetained in prison until MRDetained in prison until MR
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Relative RiskRelative Risk vsvs
Absolute RiskAbsolute Risk
Relative risk consistent across 22Relative risk consistent across 22
samplessamples
Absolute risk not consistentAbsolute risk not consistent
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ChargesCharges vsvs ConvictionsConvictions
13 samples used charges13 samples used charges
15 used convictions15 used convictions
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Reconviction Vs.Reconviction Vs. RearrestRearrest
RearrestRearrest = 1.4 x reconviction= 1.4 x reconviction
10 Years10 Years
RearrestRearrest ReconvictionReconviction
Static 5Static 5 24.5%24.5% 21%21%Static 6Static 6 31.5%31.5% 27%27%
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Child MolestersChild Molesters vsvs RapistsRapists
53% child molesters53% child molesters
47% rapists47% rapists
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Rapists & Child MolestersRapists & Child Molesters
Tested separatelyTested separately
Both work with new itemBoth work with new item
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Treatment %Treatment %
Primarily treated samplesPrimarily treated samples
Only one untreated sampleOnly one untreated sample
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SamplesSamples
N = 7878N = 7878
21 samples21 samples
HelmusHelmus
N = 8412N = 841223 samples23 samples
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Sample SizeSample Size
Static99 = 8,893Static99 = 8,893
Logistical regression 10 yearsLogistical regression 10 years
2,5282,528
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Samples SizesSamples Sizes
RoutineRoutine 2,4062,406
NonNon--RoutineRoutine 1,6421,642
TreatmentTreatment 866866
High RiskHigh Risk 722722
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Old Sample SizeOld Sample Size
StaticStatic--99 108699 1086
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Aging and Risk of SexualAging and Risk of Sexual
OffendingOffending
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What Difference Does Age Make?What Difference Does Age Make?
Recidivism & agingRecidivism & aging --.10.10
(Hanson & Bussiere, 1998)(Hanson & Bussiere, 1998)
Recidivism rates declined steadily with ageRecidivism rates declined steadily with age
Extrafamilial child molestersExtrafamilial child molesters maintainedmaintainedrisk longerrisk longer
N =3751N =3751
(Hanson, 2002)(Hanson, 2002)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Age-at-release from custody
Recidivismrate (%)
Child molesters
Rapists
Incest offenders
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Age & RecidivismAge & Recidivism
Reanalysis of HansonReanalysis of Hanson
All groups declined steadilyAll groups declined steadily
Own dataOwn data linear decrease with agelinear decrease with age
N = 468N = 468
(Barbaree et al., 2003)(Barbaree et al., 2003)
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Fitted Sexual Recidivism Rates by AgeFitted Sexual Recidivism Rates by Age
GraphsGraphs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59
One SA
Two SA
Three SA
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Each one unit increase in age wasEach one unit increase in age wasassociated with 98% of theassociated with 98% of therecidivism rate of the previousrecidivism rate of the previous(younger) age(younger) age
Recidivism rate of 32Recidivism rate of 32--yearyear--olds wasolds was98% of recidivism rate of 31 year98% of recidivism rate of 31 year--oldsolds
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Current age item did not adequately adjustCurrent age item did not adequately adjustfor agefor age
Could have left old item and fitted aCould have left old item and fitted acomplicated curvilinear age adjustmentcomplicated curvilinear age adjustment
Decided instead to create a new age itemDecided instead to create a new age item
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With New Age ItemWith New Age Item
Age of release does not add significantAge of release does not add significantincremental predictive validityincremental predictive validity
With old age itemWith old age item
Age of release does add predictiveAge of release does add predictive
validityvalidity
Meaning: New item adequatelyMeaning: New item adequatelycontrols for agecontrols for age
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Comparing StaticComparing Static--99 to Static99 to Static--99R99R
Validation SampleValidation SampleN = 2,392N = 2,392ROC
5 YearsROC
10 Years
Static-99 .713 .706
Static-99R .720 .710
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New Age ItemNew Age Item
Age Score
18 34.9 1
35 39.9 0
40 59.9 -1
60 + -3
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Score RangeScore Range
--3 to 123 to 12
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Risk CategoriesRisk Categories
Score Risk Category
-3 through 1 Low
2,3 Low-Moderate
4,5 Moderate-High
6+ High
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Do OverDo Over--rides Help?rides Help?
Prediction of Recidivism (ROC)Prediction of Recidivism (ROC)Recidivism
TypeStatic-99 Static-99 +
Over-rideStatic-99 +
Stable- 2007
Sexual .77 .75 .81
Any violent .74 .71 .77
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Age 61Age 61
Attacked 73Attacked 73--yearyear--old womanold woman
Giving him a church tourGiving him a church tour
Stranger assaultStranger assault
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Mr. JohnsonMr. Johnson
AgeAge OffenseOffense HistoHistoryry
2929 Has a history of sexualHas a history of sexualassaultassault
4646 Attempted molestation of Attempted molestation of
1111--yearyear--oldold
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Mr. JohnsonMr. Johnson
AgeAge Offense HistoryOffense History
4848 Violent rape of 17Violent rape of 17--yearyear--oldoldboyboy beat with chainbeat with chain
5858 Molestation 6 yr old boyMolestation 6 yr old boy
59.559.5 Exposure to officerExposure to officer
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No High Risk Aging Sex Offenders?No High Risk Aging Sex Offenders?
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When to OverWhen to Over--ride?ride?
Recent OffenseRecent Offense within 5 yearswithin 5 years
History of continuous offendingHistory of continuous offending
No evidence of impact of agingNo evidence of impact of aging
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Static, Stable & AcuteStatic, Stable & Acute
StaticStatic NonNon--changeable life factors thatchangeable life factors that
relate to risk for sexual recidivism,relate to risk for sexual recidivism,generally historical in naturegenerally historical in nature
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Static, Stable & AcuteStatic, Stable & Acute
StableStable Personality characteristics, skillPersonality characteristics, skilldeficits, and learned behaviours thatdeficits, and learned behaviours thatrelate to risk for sexual recidivism thatrelate to risk for sexual recidivism that
may be changed through interventionmay be changed through intervention
AcuteAcute Risk factors of short or unstableRisk factors of short or unstable
temporal duration that can changetemporal duration that can changerapidly, generally as a result ofrapidly, generally as a result ofenvironmental or intraenvironmental or intra--personalpersonalconditionsconditions
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Static99R + Stable 2007Static99R + Stable 2007
Static99RScore
3 Year Recidivism 5 YearRecidivism
Stable = 5 Stable = 14 Routine High Risk
2 3% 7% 5% 12%
5 7% 18% 11% 25%
7 14% 32% 19% 38%