atlanta may 2011 static99-r

8/6/2019 Atlanta May 2011 Static99-R

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Changes in Risk AssessmentChanges in Risk Assessment


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RRASORRRASOR

1) Prior sexual charges or1) Prior sexual charges orconvictionsconvictions

2) Victim gender2) Victim gender

3) Age3) Age

4) Relationship to victim4) Relationship to victim


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Static99Static99

RRASOR plus 6 itemsRRASOR plus 6 items

1. Prior sentencing dates1. Prior sentencing dates2. Noncontact offenses2. Noncontact offenses

3. Index nonsexual violence3. Index nonsexual violence

4. Prior non4. Prior non--sexual violencesexual violence

5. Stranger victim5. Stranger victim

6. Single6. Single


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Three Generations of RiskThree Generations of Risk

AssessmentAssessmentClinical JudgmentClinical Judgment

Actuarial AssessmentActuarial Assessment

Actuarial Plus DynamicActuarial Plus Dynamic


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Approaches to RiskApproaches to Risk

AssessmentAssessmentdd SubjectsSubjects StudiesStudies

Unstructured clinicalUnstructured clinical .43.43 1,7231,723 99

Structured professionalStructured professional

judgmentjudgment .41.41 844844 55

Actuarial (sex)Actuarial (sex) .70.70 14,16014,160 5555

(Hanson & Morton(Hanson & Morton--BourgonBourgon 2007)2007)


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What Does Static99 Measure?What Does Static99 Measure?

Who Gets CaughtWho Gets Caught


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Differential DisclosureDifferential Disclosure

IncestIncest


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When Did Child Rarely DiscloseWhen Did Child Rarely Disclose

Natural ParentNatural Parent

ImmediatelyImmediately 17%17%

LaterLater 30%30%

NeverNever 55%55%


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Differential DisclosureDifferential Disclosure

Abused and neglected childrenAbused and neglected children

Skillful offendersSkillful offenders


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Decline in Crime 2008Decline in Crime 2008

Decline in Rape & Sexual AssaultDecline in Rape & Sexual Assault

19991999--20082008

53%53%


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Base Rates MatterBase Rates Matter

MoreMore

OrOrFewerFewer

ReoffendersReoffenders for each scorefor each score


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Multiple NormsMultiple Norms

Routine Sex Offenders (CSC)Routine Sex Offenders (CSC)

Treatment SamplesTreatment Samples

NonroutineNonroutine SamplesSamples

High Risk SamplesHigh Risk Samples


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Which Norms to UseWhich Norms to Use

Correctional Services ofCanadaCorrectional Services ofCanada

Routine CasesRoutine Cases

N = 2406N = 2406No screening proceduresNo screening procedures

No preNo pre--selection forselection for txtx, or civil commitment, or civil commitment


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Which Norms To Use?Which Norms To Use?

Preselected for TreatmentPreselected for Treatment

Referred for sex offender specificReferred for sex offender specifictreatment during current or priortreatment during current or priorincarcerationincarceration

Selected but no beds still selectedSelected but no beds still selected


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NonNon--routineroutine

Treatment sampleTreatment sample

High risk samplesHigh risk samples

Preselected for other reasons, e.g.,Preselected for other reasons, e.g.,

offenseoffense severiseveri


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Which Norms to UseWhich Norms to Use

High Risk SampleHigh Risk Sample

Preselected for riskPreselected for risk

Factors external to StaticFactors external to Static--9999

SVP referral, mentally disordered, notSVP referral, mentally disordered, notguilty by reason of insanity, referred forguilty by reason of insanity, referred for

intensive treatmentintensive treatment


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NormsNorms

Most cases will use routine correctionalMost cases will use routine correctionalsamplesample


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Scores Versus RecidivismScores Versus Recidivism

Original NormsOriginal NormsScoreScore RiskRisk YearsYears55 1010 1515

0,10,1 LowLow 6%6% 9%9% 10%10%

2,32,3 Med/LowMed/Low 10%10% 14%14% 18%18%

4,54,5 Med/HighMed/High 29%29% 33%33% 38%38%

6+6+ HighHigh 39%39% 45%45% 52%52%


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New Norms 10 YearsNew Norms 10 YearsScore Routine5

Observ11ed

Routine

Adjusted

Treatment

Need

High Risk

-3 1.4 1.8 3.2

-2 1.8 2.4 4.2

-1 2.3 3.3 5.4 9.8

0 3 4.4 7 12.5

1 3.9 5.7 9 15.7

2 5.1 7.6 11.5 19.7

3 6.6 10 14.5 24.3

4 8.4 13 18.2 29.6

5 10.8 16.9 22.6 35.56 13.7 21.7 27.6 41.9

7 17.2 27.8 33.3 48.6

8 21.4 35 39.6 55.3

9 26.3 43.3 46.2 61.9

10 68


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BengtsonBengtson, 2008, 2008

PrePre--trial psychiatrictrial psychiatric evaleval in Denmarkin Denmark

Suspected of retardation or psychosisSuspected of retardation or psychosis

BontaBonta && YessineYessine, 2005, 2005

Dangerous OffendersDangerous Offenders--Indeterminate sentencesIndeterminate sentences

Potential Dangerous OffendersPotential Dangerous Offenders

Violent Offense after MRViolent Offense after MR


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Haag, 2005Haag, 2005

All Canadian offenders released at MRAll Canadian offenders released at MR

Knight and Thornton, 2007Knight and Thornton, 2007

Massachusetts Treatment CenterMassachusetts Treatment Center--

Assessed or treated between 1959Assessed or treated between 1959 --19841984

Sexually dangerous personsSexually dangerous persons


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High Risk SamplesHigh Risk Samples

NicholaichukNicholaichuk, 2001, 2001

Treated at Clearwater treatmentTreated at Clearwater treatment

programprogram maximum securitymaximum securityforensic mental health facilityforensic mental health facility

Wilson & colleaguesWilson & colleaguesDetained in prison until MRDetained in prison until MR


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Relative RiskRelative Risk vsvs

Absolute RiskAbsolute Risk

Relative risk consistent across 22Relative risk consistent across 22

samplessamples

Absolute risk not consistentAbsolute risk not consistent


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ChargesCharges vsvs ConvictionsConvictions

13 samples used charges13 samples used charges

15 used convictions15 used convictions


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Reconviction Vs.Reconviction Vs. RearrestRearrest

RearrestRearrest = 1.4 x reconviction= 1.4 x reconviction

10 Years10 Years

RearrestRearrest ReconvictionReconviction

Static 5Static 5 24.5%24.5% 21%21%Static 6Static 6 31.5%31.5% 27%27%


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Child MolestersChild Molesters vsvs RapistsRapists

53% child molesters53% child molesters

47% rapists47% rapists


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Rapists & Child MolestersRapists & Child Molesters

Tested separatelyTested separately

Both work with new itemBoth work with new item


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Treatment %Treatment %

Primarily treated samplesPrimarily treated samples

Only one untreated sampleOnly one untreated sample


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SamplesSamples

N = 7878N = 7878

21 samples21 samples

HelmusHelmus

N = 8412N = 841223 samples23 samples


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Sample SizeSample Size

Static99 = 8,893Static99 = 8,893

Logistical regression 10 yearsLogistical regression 10 years

2,5282,528


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Samples SizesSamples Sizes

RoutineRoutine 2,4062,406

NonNon--RoutineRoutine 1,6421,642

TreatmentTreatment 866866

High RiskHigh Risk 722722


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Old Sample SizeOld Sample Size

StaticStatic--99 108699 1086


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Aging and Risk of SexualAging and Risk of Sexual

OffendingOffending


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What Difference Does Age Make?What Difference Does Age Make?

Recidivism & agingRecidivism & aging --.10.10

(Hanson & Bussiere, 1998)(Hanson & Bussiere, 1998)

Recidivism rates declined steadily with ageRecidivism rates declined steadily with age

Extrafamilial child molestersExtrafamilial child molesters maintainedmaintainedrisk longerrisk longer

N =3751N =3751

(Hanson, 2002)(Hanson, 2002)


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Age-at-release from custody

Recidivismrate (%)

Child molesters

Rapists

Incest offenders


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Age & RecidivismAge & Recidivism

Reanalysis of HansonReanalysis of Hanson

All groups declined steadilyAll groups declined steadily

Own dataOwn data linear decrease with agelinear decrease with age

N = 468N = 468

(Barbaree et al., 2003)(Barbaree et al., 2003)


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Fitted Sexual Recidivism Rates by AgeFitted Sexual Recidivism Rates by Age

GraphsGraphs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

One SA

Two SA

Three SA


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Each one unit increase in age wasEach one unit increase in age wasassociated with 98% of theassociated with 98% of therecidivism rate of the previousrecidivism rate of the previous(younger) age(younger) age

Recidivism rate of 32Recidivism rate of 32--yearyear--olds wasolds was98% of recidivism rate of 31 year98% of recidivism rate of 31 year--oldsolds


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Current age item did not adequately adjustCurrent age item did not adequately adjustfor agefor age

Could have left old item and fitted aCould have left old item and fitted acomplicated curvilinear age adjustmentcomplicated curvilinear age adjustment

Decided instead to create a new age itemDecided instead to create a new age item


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With New Age ItemWith New Age Item

Age of release does not add significantAge of release does not add significantincremental predictive validityincremental predictive validity

With old age itemWith old age item

Age of release does add predictiveAge of release does add predictive

validityvalidity

Meaning: New item adequatelyMeaning: New item adequatelycontrols for agecontrols for age


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Comparing StaticComparing Static--99 to Static99 to Static--99R99R

Validation SampleValidation SampleN = 2,392N = 2,392ROC

5 YearsROC

10 Years

Static-99 .713 .706

Static-99R .720 .710


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New Age ItemNew Age Item

Age Score

18 34.9 1

35 39.9 0

40 59.9 -1

60 + -3


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Score RangeScore Range

--3 to 123 to 12


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Risk CategoriesRisk Categories

Score Risk Category

-3 through 1 Low

2,3 Low-Moderate

4,5 Moderate-High

6+ High


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Do OverDo Over--rides Help?rides Help?

Prediction of Recidivism (ROC)Prediction of Recidivism (ROC)Recidivism

TypeStatic-99 Static-99 +

Over-rideStatic-99 +

Stable- 2007

Sexual .77 .75 .81

Any violent .74 .71 .77


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Age 61Age 61

Attacked 73Attacked 73--yearyear--old womanold woman

Giving him a church tourGiving him a church tour

Stranger assaultStranger assault


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Mr. JohnsonMr. Johnson

AgeAge OffenseOffense HistoHistoryry

2929 Has a history of sexualHas a history of sexualassaultassault

4646 Attempted molestation of Attempted molestation of

1111--yearyear--oldold


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Mr. JohnsonMr. Johnson

AgeAge Offense HistoryOffense History

4848 Violent rape of 17Violent rape of 17--yearyear--oldoldboyboy beat with chainbeat with chain

5858 Molestation 6 yr old boyMolestation 6 yr old boy

59.559.5 Exposure to officerExposure to officer


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No High Risk Aging Sex Offenders?No High Risk Aging Sex Offenders?


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When to OverWhen to Over--ride?ride?

Recent OffenseRecent Offense within 5 yearswithin 5 years

History of continuous offendingHistory of continuous offending

No evidence of impact of agingNo evidence of impact of aging


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Static, Stable & AcuteStatic, Stable & Acute

StaticStatic NonNon--changeable life factors thatchangeable life factors that

relate to risk for sexual recidivism,relate to risk for sexual recidivism,generally historical in naturegenerally historical in nature


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Static, Stable & AcuteStatic, Stable & Acute

StableStable Personality characteristics, skillPersonality characteristics, skilldeficits, and learned behaviours thatdeficits, and learned behaviours thatrelate to risk for sexual recidivism thatrelate to risk for sexual recidivism that

may be changed through interventionmay be changed through intervention

AcuteAcute Risk factors of short or unstableRisk factors of short or unstable

temporal duration that can changetemporal duration that can changerapidly, generally as a result ofrapidly, generally as a result ofenvironmental or intraenvironmental or intra--personalpersonalconditionsconditions


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Static99R + Stable 2007Static99R + Stable 2007

Static99RScore

3 Year Recidivism 5 YearRecidivism

Stable = 5 Stable = 14 Routine High Risk

2 3% 7% 5% 12%

5 7% 18% 11% 25%

7 14% 32% 19% 38%

atlanta may 2011 static99-r

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