Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
GHG balances (and costs); integrating energy, products and
forestsIEA Bio-energy Task 38 Conference on Efficient Use of Biomass
for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, Ostersund - Sweden, 30 September, 2003
André Faaij Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development –
Utrecht University.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Energy flowCarbon flow*Legend:
* Other GHG and auxiliary fossil energy inputs are excluded in this figure for reasons of simplicity
Conversion in heatand power plants
Biomass
Renewablebiotic
carbonstocks
Bioenergy system Fossil energy system
Decreasingfossil
carbonstocks
Conversion in heatand power plants
Heat /electricitydistribution
Heat Electricity
By-products
Useful energy:
By-products
Carbonoxidation
Heat /electricitydistribution
Carbonfixation
Fossil fuel
StorageTransport
Slow increasing atmospheric carbon Strong increasing atmospheric carbon
Transport
Production ProcessingHarvesting
Storage
Processing
Auxiliary fossilenergy emissions
Auxiliary fossilenergy emissions
IEF 98/026
GHG-impacts ofBio-energy systems•Carbon stock dynamics
•Reference systems
•Permanence
•Emission factors
•Efficiency
•Up stream energy inputs
•By-products
•Leakage
•Other GHG’s
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Carbon flows in forestry projects
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Some key topics for complex bio-energy & material systems
• Reference systems (materials, functional units).• (variable) Multi-output systems• Cascading & ‘waste’ treatment• Temporary storage (lifetime of products).• Dynamics over time.• Optimal use ($, GHG, Energy, land use efficiency)
versus dynamics.• International trade flows.• (…)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Schematic representation of biomass cascading
system with reference system and boundaries
Sam
e fu
ncti
on
Bio
ma
ss
syst
em
conversion fuel electricity heat
Energycarrier
conversion fuel electricity heat
Energycarrier
Material production and use
Mb1 Mb2
Mb4 Mb3
Re
fere
nce
sys
tem
Material production and use
Mf1Mf2
Mf4
Mf3
or
Biomasscultivation
Fossilenergy
raw material
process energy
Biomasscultivation
Fossilenergy
raw material
process energy
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Biomass cascading system; carbon streams in time
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Recycling possibilities of SR poplar applications considered in this study with a maximum of three
successive material applications
Raw Material
Primary materials
Secondary materials
Tertiary materials Energy
Particle lumber MDF board Particle lumber
Pallets Particle lumber MDF board
MDFboardSRC Poplar
Viscose Ethylene Ethylene
Ethylene Methanol
Chemical pulp Electricity
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
CO2 emission reduction per ha of the different
cascading chains with and without applying
present value to CO2 emission reductions
EL ME LU-ELMDF-EL
PA-ELPUL-EL
ET-EL VI-EL LU-LU-ET-EL
PA-MDF-ET-EL
PA-LU-MDF-EL
PA-LU-LU-EL
Mg
CO
2 /
(h
a*yr
)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CO2 reduced per haCO2 reduced per ha evaluated with present value
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
CO2 mitigation costs (+) or benefits (-) of the different
cascading chains€/
Mg
CO
2
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Mitigation costs evaluated with present valueMitigation costs Variation due to market price reference material
EL ME
LU-EL
MDF-EL PA-EL PUL-EL
ET-EL VI-EL
PA-LU-LU-EL
PA-LU-MDF-EL
PA-MDF-ET-EL
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Some findings
• Cascading often efficient, but not always!
• System boundaries, time dimension and (in)direct land demand key methodological elements.
• Key uncertainties: market prices, production costs, biomass productivity, energy mix…
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Uncertainties in carbon mitigation and costs of plantation forestry projects
•Determine and estimate factors contributing to uncertainty of carbon benefits and profitability
•Compare different actually proposed projects (6, Brazil)
•Rubber plantation (RP)
•Oil palm plantation (PO)
•Teak plantation (TW)
•Babaçu forest management (BFM)
•Eucalyptus for fuelwood (EC)
•Eucalyptus for charcoal (PI)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Carbon Benefits per Hectare (assumed perpetual rotation)
-500
50100150200250300350400450
RubberPlant.
Palm OilPlant.
TeakPlantation
BabaçuCharc.
CeramicsFirew.
Eucal.Charcoal
To
ns
of
Ca
rbo
n
CER Per ha Storage Potential Remaining CER
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Plausible Range of Net Present Values per Ton of Carbon Based on 'Internal Variables'.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Rubber Plant. Palm Oil Plant. Teak Plantation Babaçu Charc. Eucal. Charcoal
NP
V p
er
ton
C
Low High Developer
-125
144
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Existing vegetationEffects of Carbon Options on Carbon Credits
(indexed to 'base' scenario)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Rubber Plant. Palm OilPlant.
TeakPlantation
CeramicsFirew.
Eucal.Charcoal
Re
lati
ve
Car
bo
n B
en
efi
t
Base Barren Fallow Savannah Jungle WCLB
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Carbon rules
• What benefits are allowed– forest protection, existing vegetation
– credits for temporary storage
• What crediting system is used– based on in-and outflows (stock change)
– based on storage times (ton-year)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Carbon rulesEffects of Carbon Options on Carbon Credits
(indexed to 'base' scenario)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
RubberPlant.
Palm OilPlant.
TeakPlantation
BabaçuCharc.
CeramicsFirew.
Eucal.Charcoal
Re
lati
ve
Car
bo
n B
en
efi
t
Base Loose Strict Lashof Moura-Costa
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Effect on costs per ton of carbonEffects of Carbon Options on NPV per ton C
(15% discount rate, no carbon revenue)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
RubberPlant.
Palm OilPlant.
TeakPlantation
BabaçuCharc.
CeramicsFirew.
Eucal.Charcoal
US
$ p
er
ton
C
Base Loose Strict Fallow Savannah Lashof Moura-Costa
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Discount ratesEffects of Carbon Options on NPV per ton C (base 15% discount rate, no carbon revenue)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Rubber Plant. TeakPlantation
Babaçu Charc. CeramicsFirew.
Eucal.Charcoal
NP
V p
er
ton
C (
US
$)
5% D.R. 10% D.R. 15% D.R. 20% D.R.
8197
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Some findings…• Five projects should be excluded from the CDM on additionality
grounds; except for Babaçu forest managment.• Carbon benefits are uncertain.
• Temporary storage is financially important• Discount rate, baseline vegetation and accounting method cause
largest uncertainties.– Can be reduced by agreement on methods and rules for measuring and
calculating project benefits.
• Leakage and product prices are runners up.– Hard to determine in advance– Additionality hard to determine due to commodity price fluctuations.– Leakage requires (expensive) monitoring
• Transparent procedures and review of project data are essential
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
GHG performance of current biomass imports to the Netherlands
s a w m i l l
p e l l e t i s a t i o n
h a r b o u r H a l i f a x
d e d i c a t e d f o r e s t
c h i p m i l l
A m e r p l a n t
s a w d u s ts h a v i n g s
b a r k
b a r k
c h i p s
l u m b e r
p e l l e t s
h a r b o u r R o t t e r d a m
s t e m s
p e l l e t s
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
GHG emissions; reference systems
GHGharvesting+stem transport
debarking
truck transport residues
pelletisation
truck transport pellets
ship-transport
barge transport
emission co-firing
cultivation
FFB transport
truck transport shells
ship-transport
barge transport
emission co-firing
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
g C
O2
-eq
/kW
h
pellet co-firing inc landfilling
PKS co-firing inc pile burning
PKS co-firing inc soybean production
reference 1a: 100% coal
reference 1b: Dutch power production
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Some closing remarks…
• More work on methods is needed• Accounting dynamics over time particular
challenge…• ..as is dealing with uncertainties.• No clear winners; specific for context.• High standards needed for data quality and
verfication procedures.• (…)