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Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil Toward More Prosperous Cities: Putting People First Wendell Cox 28 October 2013

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Shanghai Large labor markets are the only raison dtre of large cities. Alain Bertaud, World Bank WHY CITIES EXIST

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Principal Priority of Government Improving Economic Well-Being (Better standard of living, less poverty) Misplaced priorities

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Athens LABELS: Smart Growth Growth Management Compact Cities Urban Containment: Economic Threat IMPERATIVE TO STOP THE SPREAD

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Worlds Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT Huge Swings : 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example BELOW Hangzhou, China (Largest Pre-19 th Century Urban Area (1300)

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Manila Slum CITIES, ECONOMICS & POVERTY

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Walking Mass Transit Highest National GDPs: 1500-2000 650 BC TO PRESENT Auto PRINCIPAL MODE Figure 7 From Maddison (OECD)

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Manila Prosperity is not Guaranteed ECONOMIC POLICIES MATTER

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9 Dhaka Dhaka Shantytown Up to 2M/Square Mile Economics: A History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED

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Los Angeles HOW CITIES GROW

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Addis Ababa Urban Area: Evolution 1972-2010 1972 2010

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JAKARTA (CORE) SUBURBS & EXURBS Jakarta: Growth by Sector 1971-2010

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Population by District: 1901-2011 MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION OUTER MUMBAI INNER MUMBAI THANE RAIGAHR

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Growing Megacities Becoming Less Dense

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No Move from Suburbs to Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010 Data from Census Bureau

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Mumbai CITIES & URBAN CONTAINMENT

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OUTSIDE UGB $16,000 Per Acre INSIDE UGB $180,000 Per Acre Urban Growth Boundaries DESTROYING THE COMPETITIVE LAND SUPPLY Portland Similar Results In London & and Auckland

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Suburban Toronto (Newmarket) Statistics Canada: High Density 6+ Miles From Downtown Relies on Cars Density & Transit TRAVEL PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY

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Preserving Agricultural Land AGRICULTURAL LAND TAKEN OUT OF PRODUCTION 1950-2000 c Net new open space equal to Agricultural productivity has doubled

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CITIES & HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Kansas City Housing: Largest Household Expenditure

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Urban Containment Raises House Prices URBAN CONTAINMENT LAND RATIONING Nick Boles UK Planning Minister Kate Barker Bank of England Specious Planning Claim: No Consensus (Sun rises in the west economics)

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Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand 1988-2002 Introduction to 4 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.

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Abandoning Urban Containment NEW ZEALAND, FLORIDA, SYDNEY Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister New Zealand Introduction to 9 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Land has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive to demand.

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Measuring Housing Affordability: Median Multiple Median House Price/Median Household Income (Used by UN, OECD and others)

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Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less Median House Price/ Median Household Income

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Housing Affordability 1950-2012 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income Figure 26 Greater Price Volatility

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Portland: Cost of Housing HIGH POVERTY AREAS (1.5+ POVERTY RATE): 1999-2009 Zip Code data from American Community Survey 2007-11 & 2000 Census Figure 27

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Urban containment: incompatible with housing affordability (Cheshire, London School of Economics ) _______________________________________________________________ Indeed, it is difficult to imagine another plausible cause of the 20082009 financial crisis.. In the absence of excessive controls, housing construction would quickly deflate a speculative housing price bubble. (Jansen & Mills, Northwestern University ) Consequences of Urban Containment ECONOMIC RESEARCH

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London Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam -Vermuelen & Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch. Strong Land Regulation: Less Growth INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Higher unemployment in the UK - Mayo & Angel World Bank 20% less job growth than expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Higher commercial Development costs -Cheshire & Hilbur London School of Economics

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CITIES & TRANSPORTATION Buenos Aires 16-Lane Freeway

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Don Valley Parkway & GO Transit Train Why are All These People on the Parkway? TRANSIT IS ABOUT DOWNTOWN

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Transit: 45 Minute Job Access METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER 2,000,000: 2008 Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%)

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Work Trip Market Share by Income US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2006-2010 (ACS)

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Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE Chicago Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars U. of California PRUDHOMME Mobility Improves Productivity U. Of Paris HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity Time is Money

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One Way Work Trip Travel Time HIGH INCOME METROPOLITAN AREAS > 1,000,000

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Southern Greenland CITIES & SUSTAINABILITY

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Perth, Australia Urban Containment: Ineffective & Expensive COSTS PER TON MANY TIMES THE IPCC STANDARD

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Driving Up GHGs Down: 2010-2040 US LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES (NEW FUEL STANDARDS) Source: US Department Of Energy GHG Emissions Driving (VMT)

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From: EPA, DOE, TRB Urban Containment: Ineffective GROSS EMISSIONS: REDUCTION FROM 2030 BASE

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Dubaii TOWARD MORE PROSPEROUS CITIES

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Standard of Living at Stake IN AN ALREADY CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT Demographics Pensions Public Debt

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The issue is not. Urban sprawl Urban design Transit versus cars The issue is PEOPLE Standard of living Reducing poverty Putting People First THE NEED FOR RATIONAL PRIORITIES Chicago